Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

GreatApe

Arklight wrote: »

The majority of people in the world accept that life is unequal and just get on as best they can.


On average, if a young person in the UK wants to know what their own financial status will be the best predictor they can employ is to look at their parents.


Apparently even the government are aware that:





https://www.gov.uk/government/news/state-of-the-nation-report-on-social-mobility-in-great-britain


You might think there would be social unrest considering many young people know that it doesn't matter how hard they work or smart they are, their smartness and work hours will not be valued at the same level as the privileged few.


Yet they just get on with it for the most part. Yet there seems to be some kind of pathological need in the febrile Right to point at people doing perfectly ordinary jobs on average salaries and deride them as, "losers".

Life is much better than the past for the poor and for the middle. I was at a dinner recently where a late 20s woman was complaining about how !!!! everything is and how easy the past was I listed and someone objected to say things are quite good but she wasnt having any of it. Anyway her mother was there too so I asked her views the mother who actually lived the past and the present agreed things were quite hard in the past and are much easier today. The daughter couldn't say much after that but I am sure it did not chance her confirmation bias views of the past.

The problem with reports, be it from charities or government departments or 'think tanks' is that often they are wrong and crap.

kabayiri

Arklight wrote: »

...
Women are more likely to be low paid than men.

Interestingly, women in their 20s actually out earn men.

It seems like the break in career caused by childbirth reverses their fortunes.

Women are also choosing not to date low income men, which might prolong the time they spend single.

I think we are still in the middle of a period of change.

Rinoa

GreatApe wrote: »

This is indisputable, if the migrants take the low paid low skill work and unemployment is still virtually zero, which it is, then the migrants pushed the locals up the skill and pay scales. Of course the refuse collector did not become a brain surgeon but he was bumped up a tiny but so where dozens in the chain

This is the average wage growth 2001 to date, during which time millions of migrants entered the workforce. Maybe you could point out how we all got richer.

Rusty_Shackleton

GreatApe wrote: »

Life is much better than the past for the poor and for the middle. I was at a dinner recently where a late 20s woman was complaining about how !!!! everything is and how easy the past was I listed and someone objected to say things are quite good but she wasnt having any of it. Anyway her mother was there too so I asked her views the mother who actually lived the past and the present agreed things were quite hard in the past and are much easier today. The daughter couldn't say much after that but I am sure it did not chance her confirmation bias views of the past.

The problem with reports, be it from charities or government departments or 'think tanks' is that often they are wrong and crap.

There is of course some truth that in ways, older generations had it harder than younger - i'm 27 so firmly a millennial (god I hate that term), I don't think for a second that things were easier at all for lots of groups in society (LGTB, ethnic minorities, those with disabilities), and in some regards things were harder for everyone.

However, there is an expectation of continuous progress, that your children will have it better than you did. By your logic, it's worth bearing in mind that the baby boomers in particular had it exceptionally good compared to their parents and grandparents generations.

What I, and many people, are angry about is that our parents' generations are thoroughly pulling up the ladders behind them. You might argue that this is pragmatism, e.g. tuition fees because HE would be otherwise unaffordable for this many students. But then we're blamed for finding things difficult that our parents didn't (through our parents' generations political decisions), and for it we're called lazy, and that we expect the world handed to us on a plate.

Can you give some examples of where you think your generation had it worse than mine? I mean I can't imagine how something like "kids today have the internet" as being a good one... better healthcare and dental, I'd agree with that, but I'm struggling to see around education, jobs and economic security how my generation haven't been bent over a barrel.

Rusty_Shackleton

Rinoa wrote: »

This is the average wage growth 2001 to date, during which time millions of migrants entered the workforce. Maybe you could point out how we all got richer.

If the argument is that immigrants make a positive contribution to economic growth, then it follows that your graph would simply be worse if there were less immigrants.

Thinking about the period you're talking about, perhaps the decrease has been less to do with immigration, and more to do with the top earners in this country taking more and more relative to average workers. Your graph says weekly earnings, I wonder if it means salaries, or takes into account share dividends and other bonuses that the rich use to obfuscate how much they actually earn. It clearly won't include, for example, where somebody has their pay paid to a company and they then take out share dividends.

kabayiri

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

...
Can you give some examples of where you think your generation had it worse than mine? I mean I can't imagine how something like "kids today have the internet" as being a good one... better healthcare and dental, I'd agree with that, but I'm struggling to see around education, jobs and economic security how my generation haven't been bent over a barrel.

I'm puzzled as to why you think all things internet is not a plus?

Just the simple access to a variety of information sources, and different viewpoints. Imagine you can't do your homework as a student because the library is shut, and you left your one relevant text book at school.

This is a richness in a different form. Being able to keep in touch with your young wherever they are is also a richness.

The issue might be benchmarks. I managed fine with generic cheap trainers, but today the brand is a defining characteristic.

Rusty_Shackleton

GreatApe wrote: »

https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/nesscontent/dvc126/index.html

look at the map I posted, its april 2015 so add about 5% to the figures for April 2017

For example for Birmingham, median full time male wages are £30,784 add 5% to that to update it to this year and you get a little over £32,300 so half of men in Birmingham working full time earn more than that and half earn less than that

Wages in the uk are high, there is also a huge amount of non wage income in the uk. For instance the vast sums of gifted and inherited wealth

I couldn't see the median for the UK on that map of yours, and as much as I hate to use Wikipedia as a source, I doubt these figures are wrong:


The vast majority of people earn 30k or below. Your claim is outright wrong. You can't expect to earn £35k 'easily' through hard work.

Granted, these figures are for 2012/13, but wage growth has been hovering around the 2% mark for years. Many higher paying jobs (particularly public sector) have been lost, and replaced with lots of ZHCs and other low paying jobs, so I'm inclined to say that graph is valid in terms of representing today.

Rusty_Shackleton

kabayiri wrote: »

I'm puzzled as to why you think all things internet is not a plus?

Just the simple access to a variety of information sources, and different viewpoints. Imagine you can't do your homework as a student because the library is shut, and you left your one relevant text book at school.

This is a richness in a different form. Being able to keep in touch with your young wherever they are is also a richness.

The issue might be benchmarks. I managed fine with generic cheap trainers, but today the brand is a defining characteristic.

Because a lot of things are just different, and have pros and cons either way. For example, kids today lose the social benefits of going to the library with their friends, from the exercise of walking or cycling there. The shear availability of information also means expectations are higher in terms of what can be researched (perhaps more relevant at higher education levels, but..). Not to mention the negatives of the internet on young people to do with cyber bullying, the impact of social media on future careers etc. (I don't necessarily agree with some of the hysteria around the internet FYI, just highlighting with popular perceptions).

I think if you're going to compare between generations, it has to be on equal terms... i.e. the internet wasnt available to young baby boomers, so isn't comparable... you could legitimately say easier for millennials to communicate, or like you said, do their homework,but it all seems of little consequence, unlike jobs and housing. I'm struggling to explain what I'm thinking well, but it seems when older generations talk about us having it easy, their examples tend to be rather superficial... they could argue things like medical and dental improvements, which obviously are a lot better now, but an awful lot of important stuff seems to me to be worse.

economic

Rinoa wrote: »

This is the average wage growth 2001 to date, during which time millions of migrants entered the workforce. Maybe you could point out how we all got richer.

do you honstely think this graph tells everything about how rich we got?

firstly its the average, the median wage would be a lot better. secondly the numbers would include the low paid migrants that we beenfit from which in itself would bring the average wage down. a better (but still not nearly conclusive) way to do this would be to graph median wages for uk population excluding all migrants.

the other thing is are these wages in nominal terms or real? if nominal then it is seriously misleading.

wages dont tell the full story about wealth. what about gifts and inheritances being passed down? what about things like technology and healthcare and cheap flights and the massive choice available now for shopping on amazon? what about home delivery for groceries being much more common. cheap taxi via uber? much more choice of hotels via airbnb? the ability to work from home? there is so much richness in this economy you really need to open your eyes to see it. its not as simple as wage growth - thats just really stupid.

Thrugelmir

On average, if a young person in the UK wants to know what their own financial status will be the best predictor they can employ is to look at their parents.

True. Where one is born makes a huge difference to available opportunities to gain experience and skills. Though much still depends on the individual. Having worked for an individual whose father was a Nottinghamshire coal miner. Who himself became a CEO of a Nasdaq company. Requires a personal drive to better oneself. Something the Nanny and litigation state does little to instil. A lot of very successful people start with absolutely nothing. In part that's why they do over achieve. In many ways benefiting those around them.