Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

I reckon Germany will face new challenges from China in addition to South Korea, as we all will, when it comes to cars.

Would British attitudes to Chinese made cars change if they were priced at half the retail of a VW Golf?

Already, £20K for a compact German car is looking out of reach of many in the UK as low wage growth bites.

I don't think you need to worry or feel sorry for BMW.
Here is a story about BMW in Korea. They seem to be doing well in this market. The appetite for German cars is growing.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/06/21/0200000000AEN20170621015100320.html

Finding £20k is difficult but with PCP (personal contract purchase) this has helped the "sale" of many German cars. While the practice has many dangers British politicians have not done anything about it and perhaps it is a ticking bomb potentially but has helped foreign and domestic produced cars increase sales.
After Brexit it will be better.

gfplux

setmefree2 wrote: »

And on that note

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40697322

Mr Wissman it'll only be like that if that is what the EU want - that's not what we want.

Do I misunderstand?
Mr Wissman is suggesting a transition period. While hardly anyone on the EU side except Mr Wissman has mentioned a transition period it is hardly off the lips of every British talking head this week. The only disagreement is over how long.
I assume the EU side are happy to go along with any length of transition period Britain wants.
Like everyone else I am off to the beach

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

Not picking a fight,
but in the last 48hours I listened to 20 minutes of Fox on a "BBC Today" podcast talking of his visit to Geneva and about his impending visit to America. It was not an agressive interview he was free to talk freely about how cloths and shoes will be cheaper (by 20%) after Brexit and that wine would also cost less. In fact he said there would be a "leap" in people standard of living immediately after Brexit.
Not sure he said leap it could have been jump.

But where was any of that reported in UK media; even the BBC largely ignored it yet anything either pro-EU or UK-bad-news is immediately seized-upon.
Now I know that this is from The Express but I include it for the video it contains:

TORY MP Bernard Jenkin blasted a BBC presenter over Brexit saying his “emotive language” was revealing the broadcaster’s bias.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/831446/Brexit-eu-uk-Bernard-Jenkin-bbc-news-europe-brussels-european-union-Good-Morning-Scotland

Some of us have suggested for a while that much of the evidence points to the possibility of food & drink being cheaper post-Brexit, and that standards may well even rise rather than fall as some naysayers suggest.
Liam Fox says as much in your example but so does Rees-Mogg in The Express below.
Yes yes yes, I know; The Express again but the interview was between Jacob Rees-Mogg & The Express so where else would you expect to see it?

The Conservative MP told Express.co.uk Britons’ living standards will soar after Brexit thanks to the removal or reduction of tariffs.
He said the world is now our oyster and we will not have to be restricted by punitive food, wine, clothing and footwear costs.
The quality of food could easily increase as well, he said.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/831450/Jacob-Rees-Mogg-Brexit-food-wine-clothes-shoes-lower-20-per-cent

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

I don't think you need to worry or feel sorry for BMW.
Here is a story about BMW in Korea. They seem to be doing well in this market. The appetite for German cars is growing.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2017/06/21/0200000000AEN20170621015100320.html

Finding £20k is difficult but with PCP (personal contract purchase) this has helped the "sale" of many German cars. While the practice has many dangers British politicians have not done anything about it and perhaps it is a ticking bomb potentially but has helped foreign and domestic produced cars increase sales.
After Brexit it will be better.

Koreans import only 15% of their total car market and whilst it is true that what is seen as premium brands like BMW and Mercedes Benz have done reasonably well, with respective sales of 18,115 (BMW) and 24,877 (MB) for the first four months of the year these figures are not large. (*1)

As comparison, for the month of June this year alone BMW registered 19,149 vehicles in the UK and MB 15,715. In one month remember; not four. (*2)
That would suggest, would it not, that the UK imports approximately three times more than South Korea of these?
Furthermore, Korea also has concerns regarding the legitimacy of claims from other manufacturers regarding emissions, fuel consumption etc. which lead to bans of some models and to BMW's opening a Korean distribution centre as a "sweetener". (*3)
So not quite as good for BMW in Korea as you suggest.

Regarding the influence of China, even your beloved Politico recognises the threat of China to the German car industry: http://www.politico.eu/article/china-turns-screws-on-german-cars-to-swing-eu-trade-policy/

Don't take all this as a premonition of impending disaster for BMW; it is not intended as such.
What it is however is an insight into the changing marketplace globally and how some EU manufacturers will face significant challenges in the near future as they already are from Koreans and others.



*1 http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2017/05/419_229726.html

*2 https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

*3 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-carmakers-idUSKBN14M0OT
http://pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?sc=30800028&year=2017&no=364259

cogito

gfplux wrote: »

Secondly, Barnier has a very simple task. Just like a hare unleashed he has his brief and negotiates within it. However the British position flaps like the wind, just because it has no fixed position. Gove etc give an interview and just like a tennis match the British public have to swivel their necks to look at the "NEW" position of their country.

Thirdly, The ECJ a red line for both sides. HOW DO YOU KNOW the UK has offered a "neutral ombudsman" please tell me how you know that. Perhaps it was in the newspapers

You're completely missing the point. Barmier has no mandate to negotiate outside his brief. The UK quite rightly refuse to accept jurisdiction by the ECJ. If Barmier doesn't budge, there will be no agreement.

Also, Gove is not negotiating on behalf of the UK so his views are irrelevant. Last time I looked, he was minister for the environment.

Here's a link to the article about the UK's suggestion of an ombudsman.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/22/brexit-negotiating-process-not-working-eu-theocrats-reject-uk/

The story is also in the Express. It seems crdible enough to me.

always_sunny

kabayiri wrote: »

I reckon Germany will face new challenges from China in addition to South Korea, as we all will, when it comes to cars.

Would British attitudes to Chinese made cars change if they were priced at half the retail of a VW Golf?

Already, £20K for a compact German car is looking out of reach of many in the UK as low wage growth bites.

Perhaps but Germany has a unique selling point that China doesn't yet have. Luxury cars.
Even if they look 'pretty' it is going to take a long time before that perception will change around the world.

The fact that folks in the UK are getting unable to afford these cars is not necessarily a sign of worry for the manufacturer. It's not as if the world is getting poorer, it's localised.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

I have a south east asian friend whose buying criteria was that his car had to be built in Germany. You don't get that with Nissans.

Many BMW models aren't built in Bavaria either. Around 50% of the components used come from global suppliers as well.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

How can you be so sure? Only today you said the EU was a political project hence the political nature of the Commission.

Seems to be a problem for the EU then. Won't accept a change in their principles yet expect the UK to bend over and be shafted. Something has to give. That's the nature of negotiation. As compromise needs to be reached.

always_sunny

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Seems to be a problem for the EU then. Won't accept a change in their principles yet expect the UK to bend over and be shafted. Something has to give. That's the nature of negotiation. As compromise needs to be reached.

But isn't the same story this side of the Channel? Who's seeking a possible transitional deal? The EU or the UK?

vivatifosi

The point re cars is an interesting one. We've both bought new cars in the last couple of years. I bought myself a new South Korean car, tempted by the seven year warranty, three year service package and huge number of extras installed. DH bought a German car from the same manufacturer as his previous car.

The level of service that I've received has been far superior. Even luxury brands can't rest on their laurels. If German manufacturers lose market share, that could as much be down to complacency and failing to see competitors offering a better service as Brexit.