Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

setmefree2

I note that the BBC "business" section is running with "More than 2,500 products subject to shrinkflation" rather than "UK and US to start talks on post-Brexit trade deal".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business

And. Don't even bother reading the stuff on the US and UK trade talks - it's just a Remoaner rant. Fake news even - opinion masquerading as fact.

setmefree2

I also note that there is lots of this around today

Brexit Britain could be forced to import chlorinated chicken as part of US trade deal

Shock! Horror!

A_Medium_Size_Jock

always_sunny wrote: »

No, but there is evidence that a transitional deal is sought by the UK.
So it is something that will be discussed at some stage unless you believe it was announced just to confuse the EU?

No, there is some media suggestion that a transitional deal might be discussed at some stage.
As before and as you accept, this has not happened so the validity of those suggestions remains questionable as this BBC report also suggests:

A senior Downing Street source dismissed the reports as coming from "someone on a flyer" and said it was "not the government's position".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40680738


I don't really care whether we have a transitional period or not BTW, so long as there's no attempt to drag on for infinity.
I do wonder why the insistence upon accepting as factual that which remains questionable?

setmefree2

Meanwhile.

Remaining Inside EU Customs Union Would Be A ‘Disaster,’ Says Barry Gardiner

A customs union agreement with the EU would leave Britain as a vassal state after Brexit, Barry Gardiner has warned.
The shadow international trade secretary said such a move – which would mean Britain still having to comply with some EU laws – could lead to an “asymmetrical relationship” which would harm Britain’s trading interests.

Shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer has encouraged the government to leave the option of customs union membership on the table, as an option for post-Brexit Britain.

Jeremy Corbyn yesterday said Labour had yet to make a “judgement” about what its policy on the customs union would be

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/remaining-inside-eu-customs-union-would-be-a-disaster-says-barry-gardiner_uk_5975ac4be4b0e79ec19a5329

Or did he

Corbyn says Labour WOULD leave the single market: Party leader ends months of confusion by saying UK must quit

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4723480/Corbyn-says-Labour-leave-single-market.html

No rush guys. Carry on talking among yourselves.

Herzlos

So apparently unemployment is about 4x the actual statistics, because of all the things they don't count:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/unemployment-in-the-uk-is-now-so-low-its-in-danger-of-exposing-the-lie-used-to-create-the-numbers-2017-7



Only the bottom band (unemployed) is counted, not the underemployed or the inactive that want a job.

It also points out that that's why none of the usual things associated with actually low unemployement are happening (wage inflation).

setmefree2

German free market forces warn against EU militancy on Brexit

Germany’s Free Democrats have demanded a special “Brexit cabinet” in Berlin to safeguard the vital interests of the country, citing growing alarm among industrial and manufacturing companies over the disastrous implications of a failed deal with the UK. The fast-rising party says it will push for an amicable compromise in Brexit talks if it joins the ruling coalition this autumn - as now looks increasingly likely - warning that it would be a fatal error for Europe to humiliate Britain.
“We are hearing an uttering of concerns from German companies and trade unions about what could happen if there is a crash-Brexit and no deal in place. Criticism is growing,” said Michael Theurer, MEP, the party’s economics chief.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/23/german-free-market-forces-warn-against-eu-militancy-brexit/

setmefree2

Meanwhile - more from the LP

“There is no need to leave the single market, even as we leave the EU,” he added. “You don’t have to leave the EU and leave one of the world’s biggest markets at the same time. That’s an interpretation that’s been put on the result by the current UK Government and that makes no sense at all.”

The Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-labour-eu-single-market-customs-union-membership-soft-hard-exit-jeremy-corbyn-a7856806.html

Can you imagine what would happen if the LP were in power?

mayonnaise

Herzlos wrote: »

So apparently unemployment is about 4x the actual statistics, because of all the things they don't count:

So apparently, our unemployment rate is higher than the EU's. Hmmmm....:think:
No surprise really.
In the UK, we stick someone on a zero-hour contract not to be called up for weeks and call it a job.
Someone delivers two pizzas this week and we call it a job.
And before you know it...hooray, we have 4.5% unemployment!

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

So apparently unemployment is about 4x the actual statistics, because of all the things they don't count:

Only the bottom band (unemployed) is counted, not the underemployed or the inactive that want a job.

It also points out that that's why none of the usual things associated with actually low unemployement are happening (wage inflation).

A small point?
"Economically inactive" is not the same as unemployed, which is why this group is not counted.
It includes (just for example) those who retire earlier than the age of 64; students over 16 years of age; oh, and around two million stay-at-home parents.

Also of note from the latest ONS link in the above post is the statement that the number of economically inactive is the joint-lowest since 1971.


The OECD definition of "Economically Inactive" is here:
https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=6252

setmefree2

From the Remoaner FT

Europe’s top private banks boost UK operations

Sunny outlook contrasts with bleaker sentiment among investment houses

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https://www.ft.com/content/33cb2734-6f7f-11e7-aca6-c6bd07df1a3c

Several of Europe’s top private banks are expanding their activities in the UK, shrugging off uncertainty over Brexit to capitalise on growth in the country’s increasingly attractive market for advising rich people on their money. Senior executives at UBS, Credit Suisse, Pictet and Soci!t! G!n!rale have told the Financial Times that they plan to accelerate investments in the UK by hiring extra staff and opening new regional offices. The sunny UK outlook of private bank executives contrasts with the bleaker sentiment among investment bankers, many of whom are gearing up to shift jobs and assets out of the country to avoid being cut off from their EU clients after Brexit. “The attractiveness of London has been going up and up and I think the appeal is increasing,” said Jamie Broderick, head of wealth management at UBS in the UK. “If you are a wealthy global citizen, then London is a natural place for you to choose, even more than Switzerland.” Since the pound fell after last year’s Brexit referendum, assets have become cheaper for foreign buyers, increasing the UK’s allure as a base for the global super-rich to invest their trillions of dollars in offshore savings.

https://www.ft.com/content/33cb2734-6f7f-11e7-aca6-c6bd07df1a3c