Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

A reminder that the clock is ticking. From the Times Brexit weekly email. Yesterday.

"As of 10.20 this morning there were 652 days, 13 hours and 40 minutes until the UK leaves the European Union, and the clock continues to count down.
In reality the actual time to get a deal is significantly less, since it will have to be cleared by both the 27 member states and the European parliament. And if no deal is done and the 27 do not unanimously agree to extend the talk then Britain simply stops being a member of the EU at the end of March 2019.
That would not be a hard Brexit. It would be a disastrous, chaotic Brexit that could ground flights, lead to temporary food shortages and collapse the economy.
Such a scenario is still very unlikely but it cannot now be ruled out altogether."

Time is not linear with the EU, or politics in general.

Far more progress is often made when a deadline looms.

The EU has been here before remember. We read about a looming crisis in Greece about twice a year, and always at the eleventh hour they come up with a solution.

I reckon Michael Portillo was right when he said months ago that hardly any progress would be made before the German elections were out of the way.

always_sunny

kabayiri wrote: »

The EU has been here before remember. We read about a looming crisis in Greece about twice a year, and always at the eleventh hour they come up with a solution.

Greece is very different, Greece is not going anywhere and can't be cut lose and it's in EZ.
The UK on other hand is not in the EZ and wants to go, so cutting them loose and let the drama unfold to show the rest how's life outside is perfect.

Especially if the plan is to see the UK rejoining but without the current arrangements...sometime, doing nothing is the best strategy. By the time Brexit is due, the EU will have already covered repatriated agencies, EU clearing and any other dependencies.

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

Greece is very different, Greece is not going anywhere and can't be cut lose and it's in EZ.

Greece could look east for assistance. Something which will be in the minds of Brussels. As relations between Greece and Russia continue to build.

always_sunny

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Greece could look east for assistance. Something which will be in the minds of Brussels. As relations between Greece and Russia continue to build.

There is that possibility indeed, if Russia was willing to buy Greece's debt, though given that Tsipras went to Moscow 2 years (or more) now, it is highly unlikely...

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

There is that possibility indeed, if Russia was willing to buy Greece's debt, though given that Tsipras went to Moscow 2 years (or more) now, it is highly unlikely...

Why not simply let Greece default and support them thereafter. Never underestimate the Russians long term objectives.

always_sunny

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Why not simply let Greece default and support them thereafter. Never underestimate the Russians long term objectives.

That's for the Greek to decide and up to them to stop looking for bailouts.
Greece's conditions are tough now, though they are unlikely to be better in case of default.

Argentina defaulted in 2001, it's a long way to stay put for a small country like Greece with no much resources and an ageing population.

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

Time is not linear with the EU, or politics in general.

Far more progress is often made when a deadline looms.

The EU has been here before remember. We read about a looming crisis in Greece about twice a year, and always at the eleventh hour they come up with a solution.

I reckon Michael Portillo was right when he said months ago that hardly any progress would be made before the German elections were out of the way.

The "signing" of the Divorce document might go to the wire except.
The Divorce settlement has many, many items to be agreed. We are promised by the EU full transparency so would should be able to see as each of these (huge) items are dealt with. However remember nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, so the final sign of might take time.
Britain tho need a sign off of the Divorce BEFORE any trade talks (Britains post Brexit relationship with the EU) are going to start so as the clock ticks Britain might wish they could have the last wasted three months back.

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

...
Britain tho need a sign off of the Divorce BEFORE any trade talks (Britains post Brexit relationship with the EU) are going to start so as the clock ticks Britain might wish they could have the last wasted three months back.

They already trade.
They already have working relationships.

It's all about politics. They could fudge together any variation of deal at the last minute.

The EU wants 2 things and they are almost contradictory.

They don't want to send out a message that a leaving state will profit from leaving. They don't want to damage the economic interests of the remaining member states. Driving your neighbour into recession would inevitably have some blow back, and it's not like all of the EU is in rude health.

But...you know what. What do I care? We pay people good money on both sides to sort this out. It's their job to deliver.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

Britain tho need a sign off of the Divorce BEFORE any trade talks (Britains post Brexit relationship with the EU) are going to start so as the clock ticks Britain might wish they could have the last wasted three months back.

Doesn't the EU want trade? You talk as if everything is one sided. Outside the political sphere of Brussels. There's the everyday world. Real people, real jobs, the real economy. Making an example of the UK may simply stir up more negative feelings towards the project.

economic

kabayiri wrote: »

But...you know what. What do I care? We pay people good money on both sides to sort this out. It's their job to deliver.

exactly. the only reason I take an interest in it is to protect my standard of living through management of my wealth.