Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

kabayiri wrote: »

The UK side is going through their sticky point in the negotiations, which doesn't play out well. This will partly explain the mood.

Believe me, the EU27 will have their sticky moments too.

There are plenty of flash points. The restriction on fishing grounds is an obvious one. Poland and Germany won't care. The Spanish will be up in arms about it, making all sorts of noises.

You can be sure that the UK tabloid press will play all this out in a typically British-centric manner.

Mood towards the EU could easily change.

Regarding the last sentence "Mood towards the EU could easily change." that is quite correct - not just here in the UK either and not only purely in regard to Brexit.

I wonder if perhaps for example the recent slew of ECJ referrals and the undoubted resulting fines will go down well with Europeans in these countries for example?
All these over the past day alone:
Spain: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1950_en.htm
Slovenia: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1956_en.htm
Belgium (twice) : http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1953_en.htm and http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1951_en.htm
Hungary: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1982_en.htm
Poland: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1948_en.htm
Croatia: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1949_en.htm

When citizens see their countries being fined ridiculously large amounts for infringing bureaucratic regulations at the same time as they are being asked to contribute more (in one way or another) to EU coffers, do you think they will all jump up and down with joy?

Arklight

cogito wrote: »

Oh no, not again. How many times do I have to post this link showing age demographics of people who voted in the referendum?

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/

Fact. Young people are in favour of the EU. As they get older, they change their minds.

If you actually believe there is a birthday which tips a young person from a Remain voter to a Leave voter then I don't know what to say to you.


Young people don't want Brexit because it's a stupid proposal that stands in the way of everything they want for themselves. Because they didn't grow up with slide rules worrying about how much of the map was pink.


If you can't see that I suggest you go and talk to one. It would be good for you.

kabayiri

Arklight wrote: »

...
Young people don't want Brexit because it's a stupid proposal that stands in the way of everything they want for themselves. Because they didn't grow up with slide rules worrying about how much of the map was pink.
...

Only the ones who lack vision and drive.

If you can't see opportunities beyond the EU, then it isn't my fault.

Growth outside the EU will outstrip that inside for the next generation. That's just the way it is.

You best get used to it.

kabayiri

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Regarding the last sentence "Mood towards the EU could easily change." that is quite correct - not just here in the UK either and not only purely in regard to Brexit.
...

It could be the next round of terror attacks in Europe which focus people's attention here, or more public discussion about the difficulty resettling the refugee communities in Germany and Sweden.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Arklight wrote: »

If you actually believe there is a birthday which tips a young person from a Remain voter to a Leave voter then I don't know what to say to you.


Young people don't want Brexit because it's a stupid proposal that stands in the way of everything they want for themselves. Because they didn't grow up with slide rules worrying about how much of the map was pink.


If you can't see that I suggest you go and talk to one. It would be good for you.

There is no definitive answer on how many young people voted in the EU referendum, or even which way they voted—these don’t get recorded when people vote. But there have been surveys to try and come up with estimates.

https://fullfact.org/europe/green-party-manifesto-young-peoples-views-brexit/

Imagine:
You need open heart surgery as a matter of life and death; there is a choice of two options only, which will you choose?
1: A newly-qualified junior doctor who has observed the procedure before but never operated.
2: An experienced consultant who performs the same operation on a daily basis and who has a confirmed, recorded very high success rate.

There are you see times when only experience matters.

always_sunny

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

https://fullfact.org/europe/green-party-manifesto-young-peoples-views-brexit/

Imagine:
You need open heart surgery as a matter of life and death; there is a choice of two options only, which will you choose?
1: A newly-qualified junior doctor who has observed the procedure before but never operated.
2: An experienced consultant who performs the same operation on a daily basis and who has a confirmed, recorded very high success rate.

There are you see times when only experience matters.

Even heart surgeons need to keep up to date, the heart surgery we perform today are not the same performed in the 70's.

However you're highlighting the issue with these older folks going for brexit, they're somehow stuck in the past. There's no British Empire anymore, the UK is not as domineering as it was, etc

A_Medium_Size_Jock

kabayiri wrote: »

It could be the next round of terror attacks in Europe which focus people's attention here, or more public discussion about the difficulty resettling the refugee communities in Germany and Sweden.

Quite so; there are many examples.
It could also be increasing disparity amongst member states, there is already awareness of German economic superiority whilst many struggle. Also in regard to EU "democracy" and who gets the top jobs etc.
http://www.politico.eu/article/eu-commission-top-job-jean-claude-juncker-time-for-the-spitzenkandidat-to-die/

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

Only the ones who lack vision and drive.

What about the ones with vision and drive who wanted to leverage the EU? It's a much easier market to deal with than the far east.

What about the ones that want to leverage a strong and stable economy?

I genuinely don't understand this notion that the only thing holding us back from a successful Brexit is a lack of good old British pluck. That we're somehow just not trying hard enough to make a success out of shooting ourselves in the foot. That we're holding the economy back by constantly asking what the plan is. That this is all somehow the Remainers fault.

I've heard of a few people worried about losing opportunities due to Brexit (travel restrictions, trade costs, staffing) but I've not heard a single story about anyone trying to leverage a new market (beyond investors making a fortune from the falling GBP).

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

There are you see times when only experience matters.

I thought everyone was sick of experts?

Anyway, it's a bad analogy. You'd obviously go for the surgeon with most experience. But in the Brexit referendum, the ones with any experience said it was a bad idea, and no-one had any real idea what was going on. I'd be inclined to say that the younger generations are more likely to have actual experience of Europe and multi-culturalism.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
I've heard of a few people worried about losing opportunities due to Brexit (travel restrictions, trade costs, staffing) but I've not heard a single story about anyone trying to leverage a new market (beyond investors making a fortune from the falling GBP).

I mentioned way back why I saw more gain personally in opportunities outside the EU.

I can't force people to read it, but it's still there.

You know, do what suits you. After all, I don't have to listen to ToastieMk29, so the reciprocal seems fair.