the snap general election thread

mayonnaise

posh*spice wrote: »

If Labour form some sort of progressive alliance coalition government snd we get a soft Brexit - ie not really a Brexit at all, what will happen with the campaign for a real Brexit? Will it continue?

Though looking at those polls it does look like the Tories will win, right?

Yes, it does look indeed like the Tories will win.

And then they will have a simple choice.

Go for a hard Brexit and the economic cliff edge that comes with it, and be obliterated at the next election, or be pragmatic and go for a soft/no Brexit. You guess which one they'll opt for.

wotsthat

posh*spice wrote: »

Though looking at those polls it does look like the Tories will win, right?

Yes, it's been looking like they'd win from the off.

We'll find out soon enough but I expect you've been passing bricks about nothing.

Filo25

wotsthat wrote: »

Unless there's some decent wage inflation I can't rates rising just because the colour of government has changed.

Is anyone expecting a Labour government to boost their pay?

Sticking sectoral collective bargaining in would have an impact on pay I would imagine.

Even items like the 4 extra bank holidays would have an impact on unit costs.

Labour is looking to implement some relatively expansionary fiscal policies while the economy doesn't have a particularly high level of unemployment (although admittedly I think there is probably significant underemployment around).

Ignoring all that I don't think either Corbyn or McDonnell could care less about some idea of fiscal responsibility, beyond needing to say it to appeal to the wider electorate.

Conrad

wotsthat wrote: »

Your investment advice although it sounds sage is bonkers..

- it requires someone to sell and incur transaction costs betting on a labour majority

I meant re-allocating future premiums and lump sums.


I for example moved across to bio-med / Genetics some years back which proved a very worthwhile action.

Conrad

posh*spice wrote: »

If Labour form some sort of progressive alliance coalition government snd we get a soft Brexit - ie not really a Brexit at all, what will happen with the campaign for a real Brexit? Will it continue?

I've been suggesting some sort of new 'real' conservative compelling leader will emerge and perhaps put a proper Brexit and maybe English independence on the table.


All those referendum tensions have not gone away, people have just temporarily set them aside, but rest assured they will back. No matter how well intentioned, a Corbyn immigration increase will bring things back into focus for a great many people struggling to make a living / found a home etc.


His house building wont touch the sides and his naïve murmurings on stopping deliberate sourcing of foreign workers is just laughable, there will be so many ways around it.


His NLW is not what people really want, what they really want is wages rising organically and above NLW and not help back by massive supply of labour

setmefree2

Interest rates will go up because Labour borrowing will push up guilt yields - they'll need to offer more interest to get investors to buy UK debt.

Mortgages made by banks come from customers savings or from borrowing. Borrowing is done at the swap rate - this is affected by the gilt yield.

That's the theory . Can't see why it wouldn't pan out like thst?

Well - I guess the BoE could do more QE and force guilt yields down - can't see that happening ?

Gilt yields will rise. Mortgage interest rates will rise. Its just not possible for the UK government to borrow so much money without that happening.

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

I meant re-allocating future premiums and lump sums.

I for example moved across to bio-med / Genetics some years back which proved a very worthwhile action.

Assuming people on this board are wealthier and older than the average they might be better served by taking less risk rather than more. My early retirement plans still need a wind behind them but I'd be gutted if there was a -35% year - I'm taking risk I don't need to.

I'm hoping a Tory win will lead to a stronger Sterling so I can get back into world trackers.

I'm even thinking of diverting investment cash into the mortgage.

wotsthat

setmefree2 wrote: »

Interest rates will go up because Labour borrowing will push up guilt yields - they'll need to offer more interest to get investors to buy UK debt.

Mortgages made by banks come from customers savings or from borrowing. Borrowing is done at the swap rate - this is affected by the gilt yield.

That's the theory . Can't see why it wouldn't pan out like thst?

Well - I guess the BoE could do more QE and force guilt yields down - can't see that happening ?

Gilt yields will rise. Mortgage interest rates will rise. Its just not possible for the UK government to borrow so much money without that happening.

The Tories have borrowed more in the last 7 years than Labour governments have borrowed ever. The debt binge doesn't seem to have led to increasing mortgage costs or gilt yields.

Need to consider the demand for gilts too. I don't think the government is having too much trouble borrowing so maybe there's a demand that's going unfilled.

Who knows? I doubt the theory will get a chance to be tested.

setmefree2

wotsthat wrote: »

The Tories have borrowed more in the last 7 years than Labour governments have borrowed ever. The debt binge doesn't seem to have led to increasing mortgage costs or gilt yields.

Need to consider the demand fr gilts too. I don't think the government is having too much trouble borrowing so maybe there's a demand that's going unfilled.

Who knows? I doubt the theory will get a chance to be tested.

That's because during the crisis all central banks carried out QE. QE involves central banks in buying government debt in order to push down the yield curve - that way - as debt exploded in the west - the interest payments didn't and we weren't bankrupted.

The BoE did use QE again after Brexit.

Would the BoE use QE because Labour went on a borrowing binge? I doubt it. Unless of course they thought the rising yield might crash the housing market? Would they act then?

I don't want to get all chicken licken but surely interest rates must rise if the UK government start borrowing more.

And the housing market is slowing.

And people in the know tell me people are maxed out on housing debt.

You can see where I'm going.

wotsthat

setmefree2 wrote: »

That's because during the crisis all central banks carried out QE. QE involves central banks in buying government debt in order to push down the yield curve - that way - as debt exploded in the west - the interest payments didn't and we weren't bankrupted.

The BoE did use QE again after Brexit.

Would the BoE use QE because Labour went on a borrowing binge? I doubt it. Unless of course they thought the rising yield might crash the housing market? Would they act then?

And the housing market is slowing.

And people in the know tell me people are maxed out on housing debt.

You can see where I'm going.

During the last Labour government, who were said to have gone a debt binge, my mortgage (and yours?) got cheaper - not just towards the GFC end of their tenure but trended down from the start and rates were already trending down before that.

setmefree2 wrote: »

I don't want to get all chicken licken but surely interest rates must rise if the UK government start borrowing more.

That's the theory. I suspect it's a theory that'll be tested no matter who wins the election thinking about it.