the snap general election thread

Joe_Horner

fun4everyone wrote: »

With Labour in power the police might gaf if you are ever mugged/robbed/attacked/have your car stolen etc. Also should you or any of your loved ones be having a stroke and dial 999 they might be assigned something a bit better than a low priority response time for an ambulance.

We saw the effects of this back in November.

Someone smashed the window of the shop overnight and stole watches.

No-one noticed between 4am when it happened and 8:30 when I got in because (a) the town's brand new CCTV system isn't monitored and (b) the police don't do routine patrols anymore even though Holyhead is the second largest town on the island.

When I reported it there was a 3 hour delay for anyone to respond, during which we had to keep all the nosey shoppers away from the large and dangerous piece of plate glass that was hanging / threatening to fall. The reason for the delay was that someone had reported unexploded ordinance on one of the island's beaches and the car on duty had been dispatched to that. In the end, the glazier got there before they did!

Now, I totally accept and agree that an unexploded bomb on a public beach is a higher priority than a burglary that's already happened.

What I really struggled to understand was the fact that, for an island covering 714 square kilometres and a population of around 70k, there was only a single car available to respond to all incidents.

I thought I must have misunderstood but, when they did arrive, they confirmed that was the situation and they couldn't explain it either.

Conrad

REASONS TO BE CHEERFUL FOR ME IF CORBYN WINS;


+ Massive immigration, good for my property assets


+ Remain in EU - good for my property assets


+ More police - we have only 2 or 3 at weekends in my town


+ More NHS - I'd like to see the return of far more local community hospitals / treatment centres


+ Interest rises - not good in terms of my mortgages, but will benefit my business consultancy. Not great for millions of homeowners - spending will drop like a stone for a period.


+ Improves the chance of a proper right wing Tory party (in the way we now have a proper left wing Labour party)


+ Likely opens up the door to an independent England (due to dissatisfaction with massive immigration etc) - I'm all for local autonomy, I think England would thrive like never before


+ Having the leisurely pleasure of watching the left having to defend itself as things go belly up and the rainbows and Unicorns quickly disappear, particularly on the housing front and when pension and ISA values take a tumble (if you have such funds, consider switching to a portfolio that benefits from public investment - for example Civil Engineering)


+ Potentially a decent industrial policy, although I wont hold my breath as it might privilege things that do not add meaningful monetary value as we saw under Blair / Brown where investors chased Govt contracts rather than invested in new industry

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

+ Having the leisurely pleasure of watching the left having to defend itself as things go belly up and the rainbows and Unicorns quickly disappear, particularly on the housing front and when pension and ISA values take a tumble (if you have such funds, consider switching to a portfolio that benefits from public investment - for example Civil Engineering)

They'll just blame the previous incumbents won't they? Same as this lot and every other government.

Your investment advice although it sounds sage is bonkers..

- it requires someone to sell and incur transaction costs betting on a labour majority

- then it requires them to change their portfolio allocations (more costs & tax) before the market prices in your correct version of the new reality. It's 1:30pm on election day by the way.

- it also assumes you have some sort of investing advantage (you might have but most people don't)

If someone is so worried about a labour government's impact on their investments or their finances couldn't survive a increased a period of volatility then they're simply taking too much risk.

antrobus

As far as I can see (OK I took the figures off UKpollingreport), the final polls have the following results;

BMG - CON 46%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%.
ICM - CON 46%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 5%
ComRes - CON 44%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 5%
Panelbase - CON 44%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 5%, GRN 2%
Ipsos MORI - CON 44%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%
YouGov - CON 42%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 5%, GRN 2%
Opinium - CON 43%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%
Kantar - CON 43%, LAB 38%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%
Surveymonkey - CON 42%, LAB 38%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 4%
Survation - CON 41%, LAB 40%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 2%, GRN 2%

So there is a CON lead of either 13% (BMG) or 1% (Survation). Or something in between. No idea what's going on myself. But then, almost all the polls had the same consistent result in 2015, and they were all flippin wrong. At least this time round, there is a good chance that at least one of the ten will be approximately right. Trebles all round at whatever pollster it turns out to be I'd imagine.

Given that the 2015 result was CON 36.9, LAB 30.4, UKIP 12.6, LD 7.9, GRN 3.8, the polls appear to be saying, that the UKIP vote will collapse, the Lib Dems are treading water, the Greens are in reverse gear, and that both the Conservatives and Labour will increase their vote share, but exactly how much is disputed.

Electoral calculus are predicting a Conservative majority of 72, (based on opinion polls from 31 May 2017 to 07 Jun 2017) and the following result; CON 44.5%, LAB 35.1%, LDEM 7.9%, UKIP 4.7%, GRN 2.0%. That is a CON lead of 9.4%. Which is probably something like the average CON lead shown by the ten polls.

Filo25

setmefree2 wrote: »

Interest rates will all most certainly go up - a decent interest rate on savings at last :T:T

Likewise annuity rates will rise

Likewise house prices will fall or flat line making housing more affordable for our kids

I've voted Labour although economically they would only be bad news for me, mortgaged up as a FTB, so higher rates and falling prices could form a bad combination down the line.

Safe Tory seat anyway, so will make sod all difference

posh*spice

If Labour form some sort of progressive alliance coalition government snd we get a soft Brexit - ie not really a Brexit at all, what will happen with the campaign for a real Brexit? Will it continue?

Though looking at those polls it does look like the Tories will win, right?

Out,_Vile_Jelly

wotsthat wrote: »

A spoilt ballot for me. Makes no odds - if the Labour incumbent doesn't win I'll eat my hat.

The polling centre was as quiet as morgue and I had the world's noisiest pencil so it was obvious to the invigilators that I was writing more than an 'x'. Was going for 'none of the above' but stopped at 'none'. Felt like an insurgent.

Yes, I was the only voter first thing this morning and there was a disapproving silence when it became obvious from the squeaky pencil that I was writing something more than X. I just put NONE OF THE ABOVE. Not a decision made lightly btw.

wotsthat

Filo25 wrote: »

I've voted Labour although economically they would only be bad news for me, mortgaged up as a FTB, so higher rates and falling prices could form a bad combination down the line.

Safe Tory seat anyway, so will make sod all difference

It's an urban myth that interest rates would rise just because there's a Labour government. I've been mortgaged for nearly 24 years and the trend has been towards lower rates for most of that time.

In the early Tory 4 years of my mortgage the average (weighted) rate I paid was 7.5%.

When Tony Blair won in 1997 my mortgage rate was 7.6%, by early 2007 (pre-crisis) it was down to 4.95%.

When Gordon Brown left office I was paying 2.5%.

Today it's 2.29% and will be until at least 2019.

Unless something really dramatic happens I think interest rates will be agnostic to the colour of a UK government. I know we all like a moan but the electorate tend to make a decent choice.

Of course with rates this low there's more likely (sometime, one day, never) to be a move up but whoever is in charge will make little difference.

Filo25

wotsthat wrote: »

It's an urban myth that interest rates would rise just because there's a Labour government. I've been mortgaged for nearly 24 years and the trend has been towards lower rates for most of that time.

In the early Tory 4 years of my mortgage the average (weighted) rate I paid was 7.5%.

When Tony Blair won in 1997 my mortgage rate was 7.6%, by early 2007 (pre-crisis) it was down to 4.95%.

When Gordon Brown left office I was paying 2.5%.

Today it's 2.29% and will be until at least 2019.

Unless something really dramatic happens I think interest rates will be agnostic to the colour of a UK government. I know we all like a moan but the electorate tend to make a decent choice.

Of course with rates this low there's more likely (sometime, one day, never) to be a move up but whoever is in charge will make little difference.

I think Labour's manifesto is pretty inflationary, the BoE have been happy to sit on their hands for the post Brexit increase in inflation as the Labour market has been subdued, I'm not sure that would continue, basically I think this version of the Labour party is inflationary, even if say the Blair government wasn't.

wotsthat

Filo25 wrote: »

I think Labour's manifesto is pretty inflationary, the BoE have been happy to sit on their hands for the post Brexit increase in inflation as the Labour market has been subdued, I'm not sure that would continue, basically I think this version of the Labour party is inflationary, even if say the Blair government wasn't.

Unless there's some decent wage inflation I can't rates rising just because the colour of government has changed.

Is anyone expecting a Labour government to boost their pay?