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the snap general election thread
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Here's the YouGov voting intention that ISTL was so keen on showing us yesterday .......... but not so keen today since it doesn't meet his needs, it seems:
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Voting intention estimates Seat estimates
Conservative 42% 304
Labour 38% 266
Liberal Democrats 9% 12
UKIP 4% 0
Green 2% 1
SNP 4% 46
Model updated 6th June using data up to 5th June — Hover to see intervals
Little change - Tories -1, Labour -2, LibDem -1 but SNP +4.
They must speak to different Scots folk to most of us in the other thread.
They've been out in force for days, worried about Thursday indeed as I said above.
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Latest Survation - Tory lead of 1% - and some really interesting commentary around young voter turnout.
http://survation.com/conservative-lead-labour-dropped-16-points-month-whats-going/
HUGE note of caution however as the surveys were completed just before the London attacks - other polls may well swing the other way later this week.
Their sample of 1100 people seems low. Literally 1 person changing their mind would see the poll numbers swing by 0.2%
The main problem however is how representative their 1100 sample is of the general public. If you recall in 2010 the lib dems rapidly gained about 10% points in the polls as nick had very good TV performances. Come election day this 10% additional points fully evaporated people went back to their respective parties0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »
Anyway, back on topic, Thursday will indeed be interesting
General election poll: Tories will miss Commons majority by 21 seats, finds latest YouGov survey
A little deeper look into the detail of the yougov poll and it's predicting that Amber Rudd will lose her seat to Labour.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
Putting aside the fact that she is pushing ahead with Brexit and any opinions of Jeremy Corbyn, does anyone really think that Theresa May makes a strong PM?
To my mind she is very weak. We've had a few serious u-turns in the short time since Cameron left office and whenever I've seen her interviewed she has been dreadful. She regularly starts sentences but changes mid way through and starts again (and this, I feel, is why she's dodged the debates).
I just can't see how anyone can feel that she has the charisma needed to lead our country. I'm not saying that Corbyn does either but at least he comes across as human!
I can't see any result other than a Tory win but I'm simply baffled by people considering TM as strong.
I don't think it has anything to do with "strong".
It has more to do with the best option, as it was with Macron in France and Trump in the USA.
Maybe I should have said the least-bad option?
Politics has gone to pot and needs a darned good shake-up IMHO.0 -
A_Pict_In_A_Past_Life wrote: »Here's the YouGov voting intention that ISTL was so keen on showing us yesterday .......... but not so keen today since it doesn't meet his needs, it seems:
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Little change - Tories -1, Labour -2, LibDem -1 but SNP +4.
They must speak to different Scots folk to most of us in the other thread.
They've been out in force for days, worried about Thursday indeed as I said above.
LOL, Own goal there again pict.
I've linked yougov a few times today.
Its pointing to a hung parliament, which I think would be good for the country as it stands.
That said, you can't take polls too literally, only Thursday will count and I think the Conservatives will still sneak it.:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »A little deeper look into the detail of the yougov poll and it's predicting that Amber Rudd will lose her seat to Labour.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Find someone else to toy with because I don't want to know.
Though it does seem strange that now you want to pay heed to polls & surveys after deriding them for so long.0 -
On June 9th, how long before Corbynite enthusiasm turns to outright anger?
How long until a new centre left party emerges?0 -
A_Pict_In_A_Past_Life wrote: »Find someone else to toy with because I don't want to know.
.
LOL, you jump in and attack me and now want to flip it becasue you've been found out.
Fair enoughA_Pict_In_A_Past_Life wrote: »Though it does seem strange that now you want to pay heed to polls & surveys after deriding them for so long.
Clarification, I've ALWAYS stated that polls should be taken with a pinch of salt and historically found to be eroneous.
It's just quite amazing how TM has continually trended down the longer she is front and centre in the campaign.
Her ego made the campaign about her and tried to hide behind a smoke and mirror slogan smokescreen.
It appears refreshing that the electorate are seeing through that.
She is lucky that she had such a lead in the polls else this snap election call could have gone down in history as one of the worst decisions made and shes made quite a few howlers:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
A_Pict_In_A_Past_Life wrote: »Here's the YouGov voting intention that ISTL was so keen on showing us yesterday .......... but not so keen today since it doesn't meet his needs, it seems:
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Little change - Tories -1, Labour -2, LibDem -1 but SNP +4.
They must speak to different Scots folk to most of us in the other thread.
They've been out in force for days, worried about Thursday indeed as I said above.
I don't believe the polls - most people I know have no idea how they are going to vote - they are all over the place - changing their minds every hour.
For a lot of people, they won't know what they are going to do until they actually in the booth.What do we do when we fall? We get up, dust ourselves off and start walking in the right direction again. Perhaps when we fall, it is easy to forget there are people along the way who help us stand and walk with us as we get back on track.0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »A little deeper look into the detail of the yougov poll and it's predicting that Amber Rudd will lose her seat to Labour.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Ed milliband said that last time. He even launched his Ed Stone in her seat. How did that work out for him?What do we do when we fall? We get up, dust ourselves off and start walking in the right direction again. Perhaps when we fall, it is easy to forget there are people along the way who help us stand and walk with us as we get back on track.0
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