the snap general election thread

Thrugelmir

sevenhills wrote: »

I am not a Green, but Caroline Lucas and Jonathan Bartley are good, Tim Farron is a match for Teresa May, because she is rubbish.

There seems to be a huge reluctance to tell the electorate the truth. Understandable really. As every word is simply dissected to death. With who ever is the impacted group in society being portrayed by the media as being treated unfairly. I just wish one of the major parties would start by overhauling and simplifying the most complex tax code in the world. So that everybody contributes their fair share to the system and that ensure that working, is better than not. Welfare should be for those that need it. Not a way of life. Let's demolish the old and start afresh.

BobQ

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Monopolies have no reason to perform well.

Like water companies ?

setmefree2

Today's Polls

Opinium who have topline figures of CON 45%(-1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from the previous week and fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday, so just after the Manchester bombing but before political campaigning had resumed. We have movement towards Labour, but the Conservatives still managing to cling onto a double-digit lead. Tabs are here.

ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent have topline figures of CON 46%(-2), LAB 34%(+4), LDEM 8%(-2), UKIP 5%(nc). Changes are from a fortnight ago, and fieldwork was between Wednesday and Friday. The Tory lead has dropped by six points, but ComRes tends to give the Conservatives some of their better figures, so this still leaves them with a twelve point lead. Tabs are here.

ORB for the Telegraph have topline figures of CON 44%(-2), LAB 38%(+4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 5%(-2). Changes are from a week ago and fieldwork was Wednesday to Thursday. Once again, we have a narrowing of the Tory lead, in this case down to six points.

YouGov for the Sunday Times have topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 4%(nc). Changes are from the Times poll earlier in the week and fieldwork was Thursday to Friday. This is the most recent of the polls we’ve seen so far tonight, and it has Labour falling back a bit from the YouGov poll in the week. That said, it is only one poll, so don’t read too much into that unless we see other polls showing a similar pattern.

ICM for the Sun on Sunday has toplines of CON 46%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1). Fieldwork was on Wednesday to Friday, and changes are since the ICM/Guardian poll conducted over last weekend. Changes here seem quite steady (ICM’s previous poll already showed a sharp narrowing of the lead).

As I said earlier, ICM and ComRes tend to show the largest Tory leads because of their demographic based turnout model.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

I don't really get this harking back to the Iraq crisis.

I had as much reason as anyone to dislike the 2003 military intervention : I have relatives who live in Iraq.

But the world has moved on. It did happen, and what we do now is based on the current situation, not something in the previous decade.

Tell that to the Irish.

gfplux

Fella wrote: »

I think the problem is not that the proposed scheme was horribly unfair (although for some people it would have worked that way) it's that it was so destructive of aspiration, and aspiration is a huge part of what persuades people to vote Tory.

Or put another way: far more people think they'll end up with a ton of assets, big house etc, than are actually likely to.

The Tories worked out how many people this might affect & launched it on that basis. But it was instantly hated by everybody who thought it might affect them. And even more so by their kids. Worse still, it's a policy that can easily be interpreted as punishing those who "do the right thing" in order to pay for those who sponge their whole lives.

IMO this policy was very similar to the U-Turned NI rise. Neither policy was actually that bad (or in reality would actually affect THAT many people). But both were easily able to be spun in a way that portrayed the Tories very badly.

That's where May falls down IMO. She is allowing policy announcements based on what they are & failing to think about how they will be taken. In an ideal world this wouldn't be a big deal but in the current political climate it's suicidally bad strategy. Like it or loathe it we're in a Twitter universe where perception is almost everything. For the next two weeks at the very least she needs to realise that.

You make some good points, although they suggest Mrs May is making these decisions in a vacuum. Where is the sage advise that these policy's can, WILL be misunderstood. Are these things even discussed properly before making it in to the manifesto. Is the manifesto a Tory collective document or Mrs Mays personal thoughts.
Has she actually listened to anybody?
Has she actually listened to David Davis and others about the Brexit negotiations?
Early in the campaign commentators did discuss the down playing of the party with Mrs May being played up and taking centre stage.

fun4everyone

All Corbyn has to do is concentrate on the savage cuts to the police/nhs and he is on to a winner.

kabayiri

fun4everyone wrote: »

All Corbyn has to do is concentrate on the savage cuts to the police/nhs and he is on to a winner.

Part of that would be Diane Abbots job and she is frankly a liability.

He picked a poor support team.

Yah_Boo_Sux

gfplux wrote: »

You make some good points, although they suggest Mrs May is making these decisions in a vacuum. Where is the sage advise that these policy's can, WILL be misunderstood. Are these things even discussed properly before making it in to the manifesto. Is the manifesto a Tory collective document or Mrs Mays personal thoughts.
Has she actually listened to anybody?
Has she actually listened to David Davis and others about the Brexit negotiations?
Early in the campaign commentators did discuss the down playing of the party with Mrs May being played up and taking centre stage.

When May does listen and make a change requested by the voices of many she is castigated, the recent tax fiasco being one example.
Can't win really in the eyes of some; was it ever thus.
We would all like to get everything right first time around. Sadly, life ain't like that. Is or was yours? You never made mistakes? (A generalised "you" btw not specifically the OP.)

Fella

Fella wrote: »

Labour's odds have started moving in the other direction again. As I type they are back out to 14.0 on Betfair.

Perhaps Corbyn's attempt to use the Manchester atrocity to win a few votes has backfired on him.

Labour continue to drift & are now 17.0

Dianne Abbott has given another interview that even the Independent (usually kind to Labour) are calling a car crash, regarding Corbyn & her own support of the IRA. Can't have helped:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/diane-abbott-lbc-interview-video-jeremy-corbyn-ira-meetings-platform-car-crash-iain-dale-a7759241.html

buglawton

setmefree2 wrote: »

The debate moved on after the dog's breakfast of the Tory manifesto. However, I was wondering what people's opinion's are on TM's Social Care policy 10 days on......?

Now that TM has provided us with *cough* "clarity" that there will be a cap - what do you think?

https://www.ft.com/content/ec9fa110-3ef9-11e7-82b6-896b95f30f58

Personally, I think this is a brave move. It would create new money for Social Care and take pressure of the NHS.

Personally, I would be happy with a cap of £75,000 - maybe higher - maybe lower?

However

Thoughts?

Don't forget this is about care in your home. Currently if you end up in a residential home



Thoughts?

Does that include older high net worth individuals who have the confidence to pass on key wealth > 7 years before dying? And who have good accountants/wealth management advisers?