Has Brexit now been priced-in

Tromking

fatbeetle wrote: »

That's about the highest level of debate we can expect from the remain side.

To be fair to most other pro-remain posters on here, Padders posting style is not typical.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Tromking wrote: »

To be fair to most other pro-remain posters on here, Padders posting style is not typical.

No it is not.
The tone of the responses and the content are however typical of quite a number of pro-remain posters on here, i.e. derogatory in tone and with little or no evidence-based content.

padington

I offered evidence, lots of it, read the threat, chumpster tromking offered nothing. A no deal Brexit would be a disaster.

Unless of course someone here could provide some evidence to show a no-deal hard brexit could in any way be wise ?

I'm waiting ...

The time is 11.07 on Thursday morning ...

A_Medium_Size_Jock

padington wrote: »

I offered evidence, lots of it, read the threat, chumpster tromking offered nothing. A no deal Brexit would be a disaster.

Unless of course someone here could provide some evidence to show a no-deal hard brexit could in any way be wise ?

I'm waiting ...

The time is 11.07 on Thursday morning ...

As has been repeatedly said, evidence of something not yet occurred is impossible.
Good, bad or in between, before the event you are looking at predictions.
Which is (let's be quite honest here) just a fancy word for guesses.

But since you will no doubt insist any way, here are just a few guesses from our media which suggest a Hard Brexit may in fact be good for the UK:

Hard Brexit would mean selling goods and services into the EU on the same terms as the US, China, Singapore, Canada and so on, but also being able to force EU countries to export stuff to the UK on the same basis as the rest of the world. Since we sell less to them than we buy from them, in the short-term hard Brexit would hurt Europe more than it hurt us.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/it-might-sound-scary-but-in-the-long-term-a-hard-brexit-without-access-to-the-single-market-could-a7146681.html

NZ held as example of benefits of a hard Brexit

http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2016/10/nz_held_as_example_of_benefits_of_a_hard_brexit.html

If we go in prepared for a hard Brexit, we are far more likely to come out with a reasonable deal. The City can breathe easy. So can business. In the end we will probably get a deal we can live with – and a better one than if we had asked for membership of the single market to start with.

http://moneyweek.com/why-britain-should-play-hardball-and-go-for-a-hard-brexit/

I could go on and on and on - as no doubt could anyone with opposite theories.
But yet again, why?
Because in reality that is all any of it is, a theory.
A guess.

wotsthat

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

I could go on and on and on - as no doubt could anyone with opposite theories.
But yet again, why?

It's a debate forum for arguing whose prediction of the future is most likely correct?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

wotsthat wrote: »

It's a debate forum for arguing whose prediction of the future is most likely correct?

You missed the pertinent word; "evidence".
Deliberately?
Regardless, perhaps you could explain how you get evidence from a prediction?

padington

So that's now PM, the chanceller and now NickyMorgan on record and saying a hard Brexit would be a disaster

the truth is that walking away with no deal would leave the UK trading with Europe on less generous terms than any other country in the G20. This would be unacceptable for our country, and bad news for my constituents

.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/06/eu-no-deal-hard-brexit-living-standards

Although I might be wrong Thersa May suggested any type of Brexit would be a extremely foolish, my mistake.

“

If we were not in Europe, I think there would be firms and companies who would be looking to say, do they need to develop a mainland Europe presence rather than a UK presence? So I think there are definite benefits for us in economic terms.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/25/exclusive-leaked-recording-shows-what-theresa-may-really-thinks-about-brexit

But hey a random blogger on New Zealand thinks it might not be all that bad, maybe we should just listen to them ?

:rotfl:

Thrugelmir

padington wrote: »

So that's now PM, the chanceller and now NickyMorgan on record and saying a hard Brexit would be a disaster

Seems as if business is just getting on with daily business. Only those with time to fill concern themselves with what might be.

padington

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Seems as if business is just getting on with daily business. Only those with time to fill concern themselves with what might be.

Thrug you have been pessimistic about interest rates, house prices and the economy for ten years and you have been wrong on every turn. I'm really not sure how to take your new found optimism.

People are social animals, they work in groups. Nothing much will happen until everything happens. I really wouldn't take now as meaning much. People don't leave town because of bad news when there's still a drink on the table and no one else is getting up to leave but when everyone starts going for their jacket, everyone else wants out.

Believe me, with a hard Brexit, that time will come.

But don't feel you have to just listen to me, there is an cacophony of wise voices saying the same, listen to them.

The terrible thing is this leaves us in such a weak position to secure soft Brexit, we are literally in the mercy of Europe, just at the time they hate us the most. We are suddenly in an appalling state. It's economic and reputational suicide.

Boris et al are trying to rehash the thatcher era, re-live their youth but the country won't get better with this flag waving snake oil. We're getting taken down rabbit hole.

I love Blighty, we do heck of a lot that is right in my mind and our culture deserves to be replicated more than many others but this solution is going to leave us hobbled.

It won't solve immigration concerns, you watch. It won't make more people better off, far from it. It won't make the world safer place. It won't help grow our soft power. It will hugely weaken our hard power.

It's a foolish mistake. Occational people try to kill themselves, on those occasions the best thing is to try to talk them out of it. This is the economic equivalent.

HornetSaver

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Seems as if business is just getting on with daily business. Only those with time to fill concern themselves with what might be.

The very definition of hypocrisy.