Has Brexit now been priced-in

Filo25

A_Pict_In_A_Past_Life wrote: »

Sky news (and others) are saying that security should be part of Brexit discussions.
And why not, too?
Or are we the only ones expected not to "cherry-pick"?
http://news.sky.com/story/security-on-the-table-during-brexit-talks-10821808

I agree it should be, but I still thought it was naive to include it in the letter setting out our negotiating priorities, it won't be a popular position with the general public in EU nations.

Are we threatening to withhold intelligence relating to potential terror threats for instance, in the absence of agreement, would the UK be "neutral" between ISIS and the EU??

Both sides can cherry pick whatever they like for the negotiations, of course the more demanding each side gets the more likely we are to reach the end of these discussions with no agreement at all.

thor

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Security is an interesting issue. As only 4 EU states contribute the agreed 2% of GDP to fund NATO. The Germans are reluctant to meet the requirement. Trump's posturing adds weight to the UK position. As Europe as a whole funds little of protecting it's Eastern border. Poland and Estonia may well turn out to be the UK's allies during Brexit negotiations.

or maybe Poland and Estonia will get integrated into the state of Greater Russia. After brexit is over, I see Nato having even less power than it does now and with Trump having his head up his *ss, Putin will be able to roll his way west to bring the old USSR gang back. He's one clever guy is that Vladimir!

padington

A_Pict_In_A_Past_Life wrote: »

Sky news (and others) are saying that security should be part of Brexit discussions.
And why not, too?
Or are we the only ones expected not to "cherry-pick"?
http://news.sky.com/story/security-on-the-table-during-brexit-talks-10821808

It's because we brought security in that the EU backed Spain on Gibraltar, not the other way around.

Tromking

padington wrote: »

It's because we brought security in that the EU backed Spain on Gibraltar, not the other way around.

Not really.
The EU were always going to back Spain's politicking on Gibraltar. I see Gib's foreign minister has just compared Tusk to a cuckcolded husband.
Well done EU you've just upset the most pro-EU territory in Europe.:)

Filo25

Tromking wrote: »

Not really.
The EU were always going to back Spain's politicking on Gibraltar. I see Gib's foreign minister has just compared Tusk to a cuckcolded husband.
Well done EU you've just upset the most pro-EU territory in Europe.:)

Why would the EU care? We're all leaving the EU, their job isn't to keep us happy.

I imagine the EU's position will eventually be that unless Gibraltar resolves its tax haven status then it wouldn't be party to any reasonably ambitious trade deal between the EU and the UK, they've basically already highlighted that issue elsewhere in their opening position.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

I suspect that Eurocrats - like the Spanish - little imagined the strength and depth of feeling displayed both by the UK and by Gibraltar.
IMHO the EU summit on April 29th will see this proposal (for at this stage that is all this is) removed if not substantially altered.

Tromking

Filo25 wrote: »

Why would the EU care? We're all leaving the EU, their job isn't to keep us happy.

I imagine the EU's position will eventually be that unless Gibraltar resolves its tax haven status then it wouldn't be party to any reasonably ambitious trade deal between the EU and the UK, they've basically already highlighted that issue elsewhere in their opening position.

Interesting to note that you think a good trade deal is predicated on Spain's narrow interest. I think we've found the first 10K EU citizens who's economic interests will be sacrificed in order to punish the UK.

Filo25

Tromking wrote: »

Interesting to note that you think a good trade deal is predicated on Spain's narrow interest. I think we've found the first 10K EU citizens who's economic interests will be sacrificed in order to punish the UK.

Spain are part of the EU, we aren't, so I don't see that its surprising the EU should include this in their negotiating points.

We have no idea on Spain's goal here, are they after joint sovereignty (highly unlikely to be achieved) or are they after excluding Gibraltar from any trade deal unless they modify their taxation levels so that they are no longer an attractive tax haven.

If the price of doing a good deal for the UK is throwing Gibraltar to the wolves economically I'm sure the UK government will reluctantly decide it has no option but to do that.....

If Gibraltar's interests had been a high priority for the government, I'm sure they would have been mentioned in the letter we sent when invoking Article 50 (as Gibraltar requested)

Of course there is a very real possibility that we won't do a meaningful deal anyway so it may all be pretty irrelevant

Tromking

Filo25 wrote: »

Spain are part of the EU, we aren't, so I don't see that its surprising the EU should include this in their negotiating points.

We have no idea on Spain's goal here, are they after joint sovereignty (highly unlikely to be achieved) or are they after excluding Gibraltar from any trade deal unless they modify their taxation levels so that they are no longer an attractive tax haven.

If the price of doing a good deal for the UK is throwing Gibraltar to the wolves economically I'm sure the UK government will reluctantly decide it has no option but to do that.....

If Gibraltar's interests had been a high priority for the government, I'm sure they would have been mentioned in the letter we sent when invoking Article 50 (as Gibraltar requested)

Of course there is a very real possibility that we won't do a meaningful deal anyway so it may all be pretty irrelevant

I think you'll find that the UK will not being throwing the Gilbraltarians under any EU buses anytime soon. You never know they might be doling out licences to fish in British waters to Spanish fishermen from 'The Rock' in two years time.
Very early days in this process, but I can't help but think that if every national interest is catered for in this negotiation then your view on the possibility of a meaningful deal getting done may be spot on.

Filo25

Tromking wrote: »

I think you'll find that the UK will not being throwing the Gilbraltarians under any EU buses anytime soon. You never know they might be doling out licences to fish in British waters to Spanish fishermen from 'The Rock' in two years time.
Very early days in this process, but I can't help but think that if every national interest is catered for in this negotiation then your view on the possibility of a meaningful deal getting done may be spot on.

Oddly enough Spain have been one of the countries that has been more supportive of a more favourable trade deal as well up until now.

I'm not saying we'll do a deal with the EU but for all the sabre rattling I don't think the economic interests of a small tax haven are going to be the issue which stops the UK from coming to an agreement, sovereignty would obviously be an entirely different matter.

As to your point about it being difficult to do a trade deal with the EU because of the need to satisfy so many national interests, I know, a lot of us pointed this out a year ago, but were told that it wouldn't matter as the EU was so desperate to a deal with us.

A deal is far from impossible but there negotiations and grandstanding from both sides along the way.