Has Brexit now been priced-in

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Filo25 wrote: »

If the Trump foreign policy approach is the new normal for the US then its hard to see a long term future for NATO in its current form in any case

I quite agree - but then NATO has always been a "toothless tiger" has it not?
It generally observes only and acts as a deterrent - ineffectively, much of the time.

The thing is, does Germany and the EU really want to be seen as being anti-NATO whilst promoting their own EU Defence Force?
Does anyone really not see the very obvious parallels with history that this type of action appears to take?
Will they really be surprised at the reaction that will surely come if they persist?

Filo25

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

I quite agree - but then NATO has always been a "toothless tiger" has it not?
It generally observes only and acts as a deterrent - ineffectively, much of the time.

The thing is, does Germany and the EU really want to be seen as being anti-NATO whilst promoting their own EU Defence Force?
Does anyone really not see the very obvious parallels with history that this type of action appears to take?
Will they really be surprised at the reaction that will surely come if they persist?

If the EU is faced with an increasingly problematic Russia on its Eastern borders and an unreliable ally in a Trump led USA, which appears to have an ambivalent attitude towards the EU (and indeed towards Russian itself), then I would imagine great EU defence cooperation is inevitable for defensive purposes/.

Given the relatively low spending and priority placed on defence in the EU I hardly think they're the most likely nations or group of nations to go on some nationalistic military rampage anytime soon.

prosaver

Eu defence force cant see that going well ..the EU would send the British first over the trenches ..and im not joking.

prosaver

Who would buy a BMW now or a french car, it will be intresting to the sales figures next year... cant wait

Filo25

prosaver wrote: »

Eu defence force cant see that going well ..the EU would send the British first over the trenches ..and im not joking.

Why would it be anything to do with the UK, we're leaving anyway, the EU can do whatever it likes with its defence arrangements its no concern of ours.

prosaver

Filo25 wrote: »

Why would it be anything to do with the UK, we're leaving anyway, the EU can do whatever it likes with its defence arrangements its no concern of ours.

I meant if we were still in , thought you knew that, sorry

Filo25

prosaver wrote: »

Who would by a BMW now or a french car, it will be intresting to the sales figures next year... cant wait

I'm not sure why it would make much difference, people will carry on buying whatever car best meets their needs I would think.

If we start to see the prospect of a hard brexit looming some may even end up bringing their purchases forwards into the next couple of years to avoid the impact of any potential tariffs down the line.

I say that as someone who doesn't own a European car!

Filo25

prosaver wrote: »

I meant if we were still in , thought you knew that, sorry

We had pretty clearly opposed the formation of a common European Defence force I thought, so I doubt it would have been happening had we chosen to Remain.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Filo25 wrote: »

If the EU is faced with an increasingly problematic Russia on its Eastern borders and an unreliable ally in a Trump led USA, which appears to have an ambivalent attitude towards the EU (and indeed towards Russian itself), then I would imagine great EU defence cooperation is inevitable for defensive purposes/.

Given the relatively low spending and priority placed on defence in the EU I hardly think they're the most likely nations or group of nations to go on some nationalistic military rampage anytime soon.

It is very widely accepted that a major reason for Russian actions recently in the east are the fault of the EU, with their continued push to integrate former soviet bloc nations into their clutches.
Crimea and the Ukraine being just two such examples.
From the POV of nations outwith the EU this does not bode well for a new for European army.
Especially given that the nations proposing the formation new army are so far unwilling to contribute to the already-existing NATO.
The EU could thus be being seen as giving Trump good cause to be seen as an "unreliable ally" in their denial to contribute.

In short, why should NATO fully support the EU when the EU will not fully support NATO?

Then there is this acknowledgement, as reported in France24:

Jean-Luc M!lenchon replied: "Europe of defense is the Europe of war"

https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=fr&u=http://www.france24.com/fr/20170401-france-defense-armee-assurer-seule-securite-union-europeenne-brexit-trump-otan&prev=search

A_Pict_In_A_Past_Life

Sky news (and others) are saying that security should be part of Brexit discussions.
And why not, too?
Or are we the only ones expected not to "cherry-pick"?
http://news.sky.com/story/security-on-the-table-during-brexit-talks-10821808