Has Brexit now been priced-in

davomcdave

If anyone is still interested in the original post I read a note from a broker today entitled....Has Brexit Now Been Priced In?

Out of respect for the broker's IP I won't reproduce it in full but I will summarise:

1. Expected inflation is at a 10 year high [Davo's note: expected inflation can be measured using by comparing regular bond yields against index linked bond yields]
2. REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) are trading at a 25% discount to the value of the buildings in the REIT [Davo's note: if you are bullish Brexit this is a brilliant investment as you are getting 33% free money, if you believe the market is pricing correctly the gap reflects the difference between liquid REITs and illiquid commercial property]

The broker reckons the best trade is long GBP and the worst is London commercial property due to some companies leaving London as they want an EU base not a UK one and London no longer fits the bill.

Not my opinion, I just thought people would be interested in someone's informed point of view.

wotsthat

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

You missed the pertinent word; "evidence".
Deliberately?
Regardless, perhaps you could explain how you get evidence from a prediction?

I don't bother with evidence. I prefer your approach i.e. a generous use of the old bold font when stating an opinion and implying anyone with a different view is conspiring to deceive.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

wotsthat wrote: »

I don't bother with evidence. I prefer your approach i.e. a generous use of the old bold font when stating an opinion and implying anyone with a different view is conspiring to deceive.

Another "Spoiling for a fight" style post from you.
Still, at least I have your "I don't bother with evidence" admission saved for posterity.

mayonnaise

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Another "Spoiling for a fight" style post from you.
Still, at least I have your "I don't bother with evidence" admission saved for posterity.

Saved for posterity, like the Dead Sea Scrolls and the Rosetta Stone. Keep up the good work, Jock. :T

wotsthat

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Another "Spoiling for a fight" style post from you.
Still, at least I have your "I don't bother with evidence" admission saved for posterity.

I think it's quite funny you maintain such detailed dossiers.

I don't suppose I'll be laughing though when I'm in court charged with possession of an unsubstantiated opinion.

davomcdave

wotsthat wrote: »

I think it's quite funny you maintain such detailed dossiers.

I don't suppose I'll be laughing though when I'm in court charged with possession of an unsubstantiated opinion.

Oh yes. She loves a good out of context quote too.

Watch out! You'll find yourself being egregiously quoted and then you'll be in strife.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

davomcdave wrote: »

Oh yes. She loves a good out of context quote too.

Watch out! You'll find yourself being egregiously quoted and then you'll be in strife.

I see the playground bullies are out in force today; such is the effect of school holidays.


BTW:
The Oxford English Dictionary's definition of "egregious" includes:

Remarkably good.

Thrugelmir

HornetSaver wrote: »

The very definition of hypocrisy.

Not really. The UK faces very real challenges inside or outside of Europe. Many people seem like rabbits caught in the glare of oncoming headlights. Prior to Brexit absolutely no interest in wider economic issues. All focus on interest rates relates to Brexit. No thought that perhaps there might be other more deep seated issues with the UK economy.