Electric cars

AdrianC

Well...

How about Renault only making €3.5bn profit last year, down from €5.3bn the previous year...? Despite sales up 3.2% to 3.9m vehicles...?

Anyway, it was Z who raised the subject of another mediocre quarter for Tesla, not me.

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

Well...

How about Renault only making €3.5bn profit last year, down from €5.3bn the previous year...? Despite sales up 3.2% to 3.9m vehicles...?

Anyway, it was Z who raised the subject of another mediocre quarter for Tesla, not me.

Hi

Delivering 95200 units in Q2 betters their best quarter by ~5% (Q4/18 - 90700) .... interestingly, TM3's deliveries beat their previous best quarter (Q4/18) by ~23% (77550/63150) and the facility changes that impacted on reduced other model Q1 production seems to have started to clear, so it looks like something like assembly line changes have taken place in preparation for shoe-horning TMY component warehousing and plant into the current facility next year and it's likely that a power-train upgrade is now all set to roll in alongside the expected interior facelift for the S&X models ...

No doubt that improved sales of S&X models in Q2 over Q1 (~46%) will have a substantial impact on revenue (and therefore the bottom line!) as these represent high value units, but it'll be interesting to see what effect the production process changes will have on unit cost too, especially so when production volumes return to normal levels (~28k/Qtr) after the running change disruption subsides ...

... all in all, not mediocre at all, quite the opposite & including substantially positive moves in my view! ...

HTH
Z

AdrianC

zeupater wrote: »

No doubt that improved sales of S&X models in Q2 over Q1 (~46%)

Q1 - 14,150 S/X built, 12,100 delivered
Q2 - 14,517 S/X built, 17,650 delivered
Total built H1 - 28,667
Total delivered H1 - 29,750

The extra Q2 deliveries were just the Q1 undelivered - stock of undelivered cars is lower now than the end of Q4. The delivery numbers next time won't be anywhere near as far ahead of production. Not unless they've got a shedload of S/X in stock somewhere.

AnotherJoe

They wont have, there's a model refresh coming which will likely impact Q3 S & X sales as in-the-know buyers wait for the new model.

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

Q1 - 14,150 S/X built, 12,100 delivered
Q2 - 14,517 S/X built, 17,650 delivered
Total built H1 - 28,667
Total delivered H1 - 29,750

The extra Q2 deliveries were just the Q1 undelivered - stock of undelivered cars is lower now than the end of Q4. The delivery numbers next time won't be anywhere near as far ahead of production. Not unless they've got a shedload of S/X in stock somewhere.

Hi

Sales last four quarters ... (Delivered, in customer hands & paid for)

Model . Q3 . / . Q4 . / . Q1 . / . Q2
S ...... 14470 / 13500 / 6000 / 8800
X ...... 13190 / 14050 / 6100 / 8850

---

ST(S+X) 27660 / 27550 / 12100 / 17650
3 ......... 55840 / 63150 / 50900 / 77550
===============================
Total .... 83500 / 90700 / 63000 / 95200

So, Q1 X&S sales were about 44% down on last year and Q2 shows an improvement of 46% over Q1 as previously mentioned ...

It's typical for any automotive company to build forward to stock & constrain supply to manage customer expectations whilst still maintaining the effectiveness of their sales & distribution network as a change management strategy, but the correlation of Q1 & Q2 isn't the issue, it's that between H2/18 & H1/19 combined with the apparent release of build forward stock to the market, which suggests that whatever was planned to happen has happened & is pretty much close to completion ...

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Well...

Anyway, it was Z who raised the subject of another mediocre quarter for Tesla, not me.

Oh look, another false statement, in more ways than one.

It's almost like you don't want to celebrate BEV's, nor the leading player that's pushing the market forward ....... seems rather strange.

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

Sales last four quarters ... (Delivered, in customer hands & paid for)

Model . Q3 . / . Q4 . / . Q1 . / . Q2
S ...... 14470 / 13500 / 6000 / 8800
X ...... 13190 / 14050 / 6100 / 8850

---

ST(S+X) 27660 / 27550 / 12100 / 17650
3 ......... 55840 / 63150 / 50900 / 77550
===============================
Total .... 83500 / 90700 / 63000 / 95200

So, Q1 X&S sales were about 44% down on last year and Q2 shows an improvement of 46% over Q1 as previously mentioned ...

It's typical for any automotive company to build forward to stock & constrain supply to manage customer expectations whilst still maintaining the effectiveness of their sales & distribution network as a change management strategy, but the correlation of Q1 & Q2 isn't the issue, it's that between H2/18 & H1/19 combined with the apparent release of build forward stock to the market, which suggests that whatever was planned to happen has happened & is pretty much close to completion ...

HTH
Z

Also, looking back a year, I'd suggest that a 134% increase quarter on quarter is quite impressive.

And assuming they end the year on 350-370k (as they seem to be pretty much maxing out production) excluding any Chinese production, then a 50% increase on 2018.

On course for 500-600k in 2020, probably close to a million in 2021.

That'll do pig, that'll do.

Here's a fun thought from something I watched today. No other company has managed yet, to match the specs/package of the 2012 Model S, which is a fun fact, till it's taken a step further - assuming other companies do work hard now over the next 3yrs to match that car, then in 2022 they will only be a decade behind Tesla. :whistle:


PS - Tesla Model 3 Earns The Highest Overall Euro NCAP Score Ever Given

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Oh look, another false statement, in more ways than one.

Umm...
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/5591486/electric-cars&page=196#3916

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

Umm...
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/5591486/electric-cars&page=196#3916

Hi

Fine giving links, but can you attempt to [STRIKE]spin[/STRIKE] explain where in that link Z mentioned anything that classified the quarterly performance as being 'mediocre' in the reply that you obviously dispute with Mart ...

Anyway, it was Z who raised the subject of another mediocre quarter for Tesla, not me.

Overall sales for the quarter at record levels, overall production for the quarter at record levels, Model 3 production for the quarter at record levels and all of this with what looks like planned reduction in availability & supply of their older & higher value models ...

You'll note that if the combined S&X production had been running at previous levels the total deliveries would likely have been around 105k, which would represent a significantly higher record, and, of course, you are aware that having focussed on improving manufacturing efficiencies on their main volume model (TM3) they now have a window to concentrate on modernising and uprating X&S production facilities to include improved processes learned from TM3 volume production experiences before serious effort turns to China & TMY ...

All sounds like a solid strategy to me, fill the gaps between major projects with facelifts to refresh demand and improve performance as well as taking the opportunity to perform disruptive process improvement measures to reduce costs ... far from mediocre in my opinion, so no, I tend to strongly disagree with the explanation you pose ...

HTH
Z

AdrianC

zeupater wrote: »

Overall sales for the quarter at record levels

Thanks to 46% increase in S/X deliveries... all of which were built last quarter, but just not delivered.

overall production for the quarter at record levels

By just half a percent - 493 cars - from Q4 2018.

Model 3 production for the quarter at record levels

5,579 cars per week average for the quarter. They've been doing that rate for nearly a year now - yet that was the original target for late 2017, with 10k/wk seemingly completely forgotten.