Electric cars

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Correct, but you missed out the crucial part that supply is still behind demand as like supply, demand is also a variable, and is also 'soaring'.

Basic supply and demand would say that price would stop falling, and start rising.

silverwhistle

Except it's a very dynamic situation. Others with more experience of the matter may comment but off the top of my head I can think of predatory pricing, building market share, long term collaboration agreements between the battery and car manufacturers, car manufacturers building (or threatening to) their own batteries, etc.



So I don't think referring to _basic_ supply and demand helps much here.

buglawton

True. Over time, supply tends to follow demand as night does day. The current oil price was arrived at because we're willing to do high tech drilling under the sea to add to the easy supply.

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Basic supply and demand would say that price would stop falling, and start rising.

Yes 'basic' supply and demand would say that IF demand was rising faster than supply could cope with and by a margin greater than the price is falling. [Note that you failed to mention falling production costs, that would undermine your claim.]

Since none of the three key 'basics' here - supply, demand and pricing - are static, I've no idea why you would try to stick with 'basics', rather than accept the bigger picture which is far more complex and volatile at the moment.

If several years of information and education on this thread have failed to broaden your view, and move you away from 'basics', then I suspect there is little hope of you accepting/understanding just how volatile the situation currently is.

A situation I find fascinating and brings me great joy as I learn more each day but accept that my tiny knowledge going back, is now less (in percentage terms) than today as the subject grows rapidly - also fascinating.

Edit - @silverwhistle, you beat me to it, and 'dynamic' is a better word than 'volatile', since my choice suggests ups and downs, whereas yours points to trends which are all in a single direction for cost, demand and supply. M.

buglawton

It does look like battery technology is developing rather slowly. Very unlike CPU tech where price per performance has halved every 2 years for decades and only now is slowing down.

In some ways battery tech development pace is already looking like ICE development pace.

gzoom

buglawton wrote: »

It does look like battery technology is developing rather slowly. Very unlike CPU tech where price per performance has halved every 2 years for decades and only now is slowing down.

In some ways battery tech development pace is already looking like ICE development pace.

It's not the tech that's developing slowly its the cost.

Telsa put a 53kWh battery pack in the original roadster back in 2009, so a decade ago.

VAG just announced you can pre-order an EV hatchback for delivery next year with a 55kWh battery pack.

The difference is the cost, the Roadster was £90K back in 2009 (£120K if adjusted for inflation) where as the VW ID will cost £35-40K or so with same sized battery in 2020.

So its taken nearly a decade for prices to go from crazy expensive to just expensive. Next 5 years SHOULD see prices drop a bit more, but if demand outstrip supply than that may not happen.

AdrianC

It is the tech - the original Elise-based Roadster used ~2,000mAh 18650 cells, and Panasonic were just announcing production of 3,400mAh 18650s at the end of 2009.
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/12/panasonic-20091225.html

18650s are now up to about 3,600mAh max, but the majority of the market is still around 2,500mAh. Tesla are still using ~3,200mAh 18650s in the S and X, although the 3 has changed to the larger 2170 cells. The energy density's about the same - around 240-250Wh/kg. The larger format's more about improved packaging - but at the expense of heat.

gzoom

AdrianC wrote: »

It is the tech - the original Elise-based Roadster used ~2,000mAh 18650 cells, and Panasonic were just announcing production of 3,400mAh 18650s at the end of 2009.
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/12/panasonic-20091225.html

18650s are now up to about 3,600mAh max, but the majority of the market is still around 2,500mAh. Tesla are still using ~3,200mAh 18650s in the S and X, although the 3 has changed to the larger 2170 cells. The energy density's about the same - around 240-250Wh/kg. The larger format's more about improved packaging - but at the expense of heat.

Am pretty sure in the past you have claimed all battery cells are the same??

The tech is fine even 10 years ago, the 2009 Roadster had an EPA range of 240 miles+ more than an 2019 iPace!!!

It's the cost that is preventing EVs from true mass adoption, even at £35K the VW ID is still very pricey, SR+ Model 3 at £38K is no where near mass market.

Hopefully in the next 5 years we'll see 200 mile range EV come down in price to about £20K, for that we don't need better tech, we need cheaper batteries.

AdrianC

gzoom wrote: »

Am pretty sure in the past you have claimed all battery cells are the same??

No... But it's not hard to see how saying a generic 18650 LiIon was a generic 18650 LiIon could be misunderstood. My apologies for any confusion in assuming understanding of the basic concepts.

Obviously, there are differences in quality and capacity in generic 18650 LiIons, same as there are differences in quality and capacity of rechargable AAs. But that doesn't stop them being generic 18650 LiIons, any more than those rechargable AAs are anything but rechargable AAs.

Obviously cost/Wh has come down markedly, but that reduction has flattened off massively - simply because it's now pretty negligible, especially for the lower capacity 18650s - 2,600mAh are <$1 each on AliBaba.com. And, yes, the thousands of those cells in a large pack bring simple multiplication into play, but that sub-$1 price is low-volume semi-retail.

You want battery pack improvements? Energy density - both per cell and in the cell packaging - are where they're going to have to come from. Remember, there's not much scope for physically larger packs, and pack weight is still a very big issue. Basic physics says there's always going to be a lot of heat generated in rapid charging of high capacity packs, and we know from Nissan that's already becoming an issue.

To put that into context, the best-selling cars in the UK are the Fiesta and Corsa. Kerb weights are around 1,000-1,100kg, with engines weighing around 100kg. A Tesla battery pack is around 500kg+, while an original 24kWh ("inadequate range") Nissan Leaf battery pack is still around 300kg.

DrEskimo

Much of the advancement is within the cell chemistry of the battery themselves, with respect to the anode and cathode materials.

I won't pretend to know anymore than this, but found this video from a electrochemist informative:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewYSecZpxIw