Electric cars

gfplux

DrEskimo wrote: »

Much of the advancement is within the cell chemistry of the battery themselves, with respect to the anode and cathode materials.

I won't pretend to know anymore than this, but found this video from a electrochemist informative:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewYSecZpxIw

Thanks for the link. Very educational for me.

buglawton

Good video. Did notice that all the cost comparison bits were based on the fact that EV power is very low taxed while all ICE power is super highly taxed. So all cost comparisons were based on a temporary situation.

zeupater

buglawton wrote: »

Good video. Did notice that all the cost comparison bits were based on the fact that EV power is very low taxed while all ICE power is super highly taxed. So all cost comparisons were based on a temporary situation.

Hi

Did you watch a different video ?? ....

The one I watched effectively said ... cells based on this technology have low cost but low life, and this technology gives this but that and combining something with something else gives a reasonable compromise, then if we look at this as opposed to that then .... so not much related to either ICE or EV at all, apart from EVs expected to have improved reliability & longevity ....

HTH
Z

buglawton

I watched exactly the same video. Were you paying attention 7 minutes in where the presenter goes into great cost comparison detail EV vs ICE? Making EV look like a bit of a no brainer financially.

He also emphasised the the best performing battery tech means batteries may in the future last as long as the car and that EVs are likely to outlast ICE vehicles due to better reliability (he showed an example). So if you make that big investment now, you could still be owning the same car in 15 years time. In 15 years time I expect the tax regime to be radically different. Successive British governments have enthusiastically taxed personal mechanical mobility the hilt. Very unlike the US. In 15 years I fully expect EVs to be heavily taxed by the mile. That would shoot to pieces the cost comparisons at 7 mins in that video.

AdrianC

buglawton wrote: »

...and that EVs are likely to outlast ICE vehicles due to better reliability...

Relatively few ICEs are scrapped because of major mechanical failures. They're usually scrapped due to simple economics and "a thousand papercuts" - the MOT's up, and they need more spending than they're worth. A tyre here, a windscreen there, some suspension bushes, maybe an ABS or traction control light.

In the UK, the average vehicle is 14yo and a bit north of 100k miles at the time of scrapping. EVERY car is capable of doing that reliably, given basic routine maintenance.

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

They're usually scrapped due to simple economics and "a thousand papercuts" - the MOT's up, and they need more spending than they're worth.

Yep. The cost of maintaining the ICE system, that is wearing away steadily, will make the cars un-economic.

Cooling system (engine).
Engine.
Clutch.
Gearbox.
Exhaust system.

These are all high wear areas, none of which exist (comparably) in a BEV, and all of which can add £100's pa to maintenance for an older car.

Edit - I believe we all know this by now as it's been discussed many times.

zeupater

buglawton wrote: »

I watched exactly the same video. Were you paying attention 7 minutes in where the presenter goes into great cost comparison detail EV vs ICE? Making EV look like a bit of a no brainer financially.

He also emphasised the the best performing battery tech means batteries may in the future last as long as the car and that EVs are likely to outlast ICE vehicles due to better reliability (he showed an example). So if you make that big investment now, you could still be owning the same car in 15 years time. In 15 years time I expect the tax regime to be radically different. Successive British governments have enthusiastically taxed personal mechanical mobility the hilt. Very unlike the US. In 15 years I fully expect EVs to be heavily taxed by the mile. That would shoot to pieces the cost comparisons at 7 mins in that video.

Hi

I still don't see the point you're attempting to make .... effectively the presenter looks at the potential impact of someone looking at buying a high mileage EV and simply exchanging the original battery pack (remember comparison - ICE vs EV motoring!) with a replacement unit in order to a keep a perfectly decent & reliable vehicle (remember the single ball bearing?!) on the road as opposed to consigning it to the scrapheap because of potential anxiety revolving around previous battery misuse & associated degradation ... and don't forget the mention of used EV battery pack potential value to both re-manufacturers & alternative use!

In 15 years time you may be correct regarding road use taxation, but wouldn't that likely be equally applicable to both ICE & EV vehicles, with an additional carbon emission taxation being levied on ICEs through prices at the pump? ... isn't it also likely that the carbon levy is ramped up well above inflation as an incentive to take ICEs off the road to meet international climate agreement undertakings? ... wouldn't it also be the case that as global & national petroleum demand falls, the volume related fixed cost (exploration through to end user sales) dilution reduces thus forcing unit costs higher? ... wouldn't it also be the likely case that the petroleum industry will be subjected to corporate marginal carbon taxation which will force costs upwards in order to maintain shareholder interest? ....

Although changes in taxation may apply to EVs through road usage, it's not exactly looking particularly rosy for ICEs either - however, whatever the taxation cost per mile that may be applied to EV motoring would be, it's pretty certain that a significantly higher burden will be applied to ICE vehicles to maintain environmental policies ...

Any argument that applies to the goose should also be tested for the gander, which in this case almost certainly dictates that policy decisions will be taken to ensure that a differential between ICE & EV motoring costs will not only be maintained relative to a point in time, but significantly widened to ensure that the policy actually delivers within given timescales .... all in all, as soon as the technology cost S-Curve gradient increases (as it's predicted to quite soon!), the powertrain technology decision actually does look like a financial 'no brainer' ...

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

In 15 years time you may be correct regarding road use taxation, but wouldn't that likely be equally applicable to both ICE & EV vehicles, with an additional carbon emission taxation being levied on ICEs through prices at the pump? ... isn't it also likely that the carbon levy is ramped up well above inflation as an incentive to take ICEs off the road to meet international climate agreement undertakings? ... wouldn't it also be the case that as global & national petroleum demand falls, the volume related fixed cost (exploration through to end user sales) dilution reduces thus forcing unit costs higher? ... wouldn't it also be the likely case that the petroleum industry will be subjected to corporate marginal carbon taxation which will force costs upwards in order to maintain shareholder interest? ....

HTH
Z

Possible other ICE tax might be air pollution (could even argue it exists already with the London charging). Applying it today would be very contentious since we almost all drive ICE's and our economy is reliant upon them, but given our growing awareness and understanding of the harm air pollution causes, I'd suspect when an alternative transportation becomes more available, an argument for the addition of this tax (alongside or part of a carbon tax) would be acceptable/justifiable, since not only are cars highly polluting, but they 'share' that pollution with all of us locally, and at the height of small children.

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Possible other ICE tax might be air pollution (could even argue it exists already with the London charging). Applying it today would be very contentious since we almost all drive ICE's and our economy is reliant upon them, but given our growing awareness and understanding of the harm air pollution causes, I'd suspect when an alternative transportation becomes more available, an argument for the addition of this tax (alongside or part of a carbon tax) would be acceptable/justifiable, since not only are cars highly polluting, but they 'share' that pollution with all of us locally, and at the height of small children.

Hi

You're probably right, the government & local authorities are likely to spend £billions on complex solutions to address an issue which needs very little, bordering on absolutely no, capital investment.

I'm all for keeping solutions as simple as possible, not only because that's what usually works best, but because government involvement in any form of complexity normally ends up as being a total nightmare! ... keep it simple & turn the taxation screw on petroleum products looks to be the best & cheapest option!

There's plenty of reasons to not only start looking at the solutions now, but actually implementing them .... think about a ring-fenced fuel taxation regime which is fully allocated to EV take-up incentive initiatives .... an incremental ~10p/litre added to fuel duty each year for the next 10 years followed by 20p/litre pa for the following 10 takes us up to ICE motoring fuel costing around 4x as much as today by 2040 (current cost basis) even if market & supply cost remain constant! ... that's probably enough to create & provide a decent cash-back or discount incentive to wean most motorists off ICEs and onto EVs as an average mileage ICE motorist would be paying around an additional £2.5k/year into the subsidy pot in just 20years time, no matter how much their vehicle was worth - that's something that would certainly act as a catalyst for change & I can easily see a solution something along these lines coming into effect as soon as EV supply reaches a minimum unit threshold.

HTH
Z

Herzlos

For the EVs being taxed argument, presumably that only makes sense if you think ICE isn't going to see an equivalent tax? EVs will likely have their tax increased to where ICE is currently, but you can be pretty confident ICE will have an equivalent tax increase.

Even if we go to a flat per-mile tax, EVs will still be cheaper.