Electric cars

Martyn1981

RichardD1970 wrote: »

Well, yes it actually will, if left unchecked. :whistle:

And, yes, I know Tesla do "other stuff" but in terms of vehicles (which is what this thread and sub forum is all about) it only produces, and was set up to produce only BEV's.

In terms of production numbers, they will only make what they can sell and, as of yet, the market is comparatively very small (about 1.4% of car sales for 2018) and will stay a bit niche until there is a massive improvement in infrastructure.

It is a slow process, introducing a paradigm shift, until tipping point when things gather an unstoppable pace.

Complete and total hogwash - AGW won't solve itself, think what the A stands for, and how us 'A's' need to act asap. In fact acting asap is too late, but as the Chinese say - 'the best time to plant a tree is twenty years ago, the second best time is today.'

[I suspect you are mistaking the issue (solution) of the planet going back to equilibrium if human's disappeared. But removing A's and therefore AGW, is not the same as A's ceasing AGW.]

As for the BEV market being small, I respectfully suggest this is also hogwash. The market is enormous, probably close to 100%, and currently far greater than supply, as interest in BEV's (and EV's in general of course) is growing rapidly.

The key problems today are price, and supply, both of which would be solved by more manufacturers producing more BEV's.

Infrastructure is a red herring, borderline hogwash. the infrastructure will grow naturally with BEV rollout. Whilst many may have concerns, fears, and doubts about BEV's, this seems largely down to lack of awareness (completely reasonable lack of awareness, not a criticism), from postings on here by BEV (and EV) owners, it's clear that reality is far better than FUD would suggest ....... as it tends to always be when discussing new products and evolving markets.

Martyn1981

RichardD1970 wrote: »

If they can't plug it in at home, then they need to make a special trip to charge it and "hang around" for however long it takes to charge.

Can only 1.4% of people plug in at home?

RichardD1970 wrote: »

In terms of production numbers, they will only make what they can sell and, as of yet, the market is comparatively very small (about 1.4% of car sales for 2018) and will stay a bit niche until there is a massive improvement in infrastructure.

If the figure is greater than 1.4% (I suspect it might be ), then we need more production, from more companies, not excuses.

RichardD1970

Martyn1981 wrote: »

If the figure is greater than 1.4% (I suspect it might be ), then we need more production, from more companies, not excuses.

You can suspect all you like. I use official sales figure.

2.1 million BEV sales of a total of 86 million cars in 2018. You do the maths.

There are millions of people, in this country alone, who don't have access to off street parking, all the people in tower block, inner city apartments etc, etc who will never be able to "plug in" at home.

Like I said, it probably is workable for the majority but it is a question of perception from the general public.

As for the AGW, it was a lighthearted comment !!!!!!. But regardless, it WILL be sorted one way or another, either by our hands or if not, by nature itself. (Take the"A" out of it and AGW ceases to be a thing and it becomes natural climate change which has always happened and always will regardless of our actions).

Martyn1981

RichardD1970 wrote: »

You can suspect all you like. I use official sales figure.

2.1 million BEV sales of a total of 86 million cars in 2018. You do the maths.

Nope, you've missed the point (probably deliberately).

Z suggested that many people will be fine with a BEV, you spun off about people who can't charge at home. So I simply asked you if only 1.4% of people can plug in at home and referenced your post (so you couldn't argue about the chosen figure (yet you have)) to 'suggest' that the market for PEV's is far larger.

So no need for maths, no need for spin, no need for obfuscation, only a need to remain within context, and answer a simple question.

RichardD1970 wrote: »

There are millions of people, in this country alone, who don't have access to off street parking, all the people in tower block, inner city apartments etc, etc who will never be able to "plug in" at home.

Are you 'suggesting' that comes to 98.6%? If not, then the market today, even if we (wrongly) conclude that those people as you describe, have no reasonable source of charging, is far greater than 1.4%.

RichardD1970 wrote: »

Like I said, it probably is workable for the majority but it is a question of perception from the general public.

If it's only a matter of perception, which I believe is true, then harping on about tower blocks and inner city apartments with people who apparently own cars (but don't have anywhere to park them) is irrelevant, as we both agree then that the real market is much larger than 1.4%.

RichardD1970 wrote: »

As for the AGW, it was a lighthearted comment !!!!!!. But regardless, it WILL be sorted one way or another, either by our hands or if not, by nature itself. (Take the"A" out of it and AGW ceases to be a thing and it becomes natural climate change which has always happened and always will regardless of our actions).

I appreciate it was lighthearted, I was simply pointing out that it was completely untrue. I stated that "AGW won't solve itself you know." and you stated, "Well, yes it actually will, if left unchecked."

I shouldn't have to explain this to you, but sorting something commonly means fixing, like putting out a house fire, not standing back and saying it will sort itself once the house has completely burnt down.

Take the A out of AGW and you have natural GW, something that has been very well balanced now for 100's of thousands of years, only becoming 'unnatural' when CO2 ppm's that had sat relatively close to 280 for that period till around the late 1800's, shot up to, and past 400ppm's due to human related CO2 emissions.

If we don't sort AGW very, very soon, then there's a good chance we will hit runaway levels that we will not be able to prevent.

One of the solutions to this problem is clean renewable energy (RE) generation.

Another solution is energy storage, as this allows far higher levels of intermittent RE penetration, all the way up to 100%

Another solution is to reduce GHGe's by moving transport away from FF's as soon as possible to electrical power.

And, as I'm sure you are wondering where I'm going with this, these 3 massive areas (leccy generation, leccy storage, and leccy consumption) are areas (industries even) that Tesla are involved with. 3 key interlaced areas if you look at the big picture, rather than the small picture:

RichardD1970 wrote: »

And, yes, I know Tesla do "other stuff" but in terms of vehicles (which is what this thread and sub forum is all about) it only produces, and was set up to produce only BEV's.

So if you want EV's, especially BEV's to succeed, then we should celebrate companies that operate in these key related areas, not belittle them, nor fail to understand the importance of all the parts. So I stand by my original comment that has set off this most recent 'disagreement':

Martyn1981 wrote: »

And we need loads of BEV manufacturers, since Tesla can't do this alone,

silverwhistle

almillar wrote: »

Or deliberately run out of petrol on test drives. 'But I thought it would self charge!!'.

The "break down" in my post was a way of looking more innocent in exactly those circumstances..


Like another poster here I could turn my front garden into a parking space at a certain cost, and that would be in addition to the extra expense of the vehicle itself, so the economics don't stack up at the moment, even with a lot of my PV being exported. There's a fast charger in the village but that's not an option at 30p a unit.



It's far more likely that I'll get an electric bicycle first. I see one cycle retailer is giving cash back for scrappage so as there's an old one in my shed that I found I could use that. [Before you all jump on me, reported to police, bike registration schemes etc. ].

buglawton

Once fast charging stations start appearing along the motorway service area network and introductory offers are off the table, I suspect that 30p/unit will be a typical starting price. Without even bringing tax into the discussion. We'll be looking back on the noughties as being the halcyon days for EV as casual fast topups start costing as much as filling up with fossil fuel.

zeupater

buglawton wrote: »

Once fast charging stations start appearing along the motorway service area network and introductory offers are off the table, I suspect that 30p/unit will be a typical starting price. Without even bringing tax into the discussion. We'll be looking back on the noughties as being the halcyon days for EV as casual fast topups start costing as much as filling up with fossil fuel.

Hi

... and when the fast top-ups are required then what's the issue if the motorway services charge 30p/unit as most would certainly recognise that ~7.5p/mile would still provide cheaper EV motoring than the current ~15p/mile (£6 per gallon/40mpg) in an ICEV .... but that's not real issue ... when not on the motorway the 'fossil fuel' motorist would still be paying around £5/gallon (~12.5p/mile) vs the EV motorist paying between nothing (Solar PV etc) through <2p/mile if charged off peak (E7 etc) and up to around 5p/mile if on high daytime tariffs of >20p/unit ...

What needs to be remembered is how strategically placed rapid chargers fit into business models .... companies can charge what they want for their offerings, but the more they charge the higher the likelihood that competition would look to undercut ... if you're looking at rolling charging into a 20-60 minute rest-break then there's no reason to deny that many will use technology to identify & book slots at chargers close to the route without stopping at the 'official' motorway services at all ... just think of the overall loss of revenue to operators if that was allowed to happen ...

There's a price point for everything ...

HTH
Z

silverwhistle

buglawton wrote: »

Once fast charging stations start appearing along the motorway service area network and introductory offers are off the table, I suspect that 30p/unit will be a typical starting price. Without even bringing tax into the discussion. We'll be looking back on the noughties as being the halcyon days for EV as casual fast topups start costing as much as filling up with fossil fuel.

The point I was making about 30p fast charging is that it's not an reasonable alternative to home charging. If I were on a long journey using the motorways I'd have no objection (or, as Z has noted, look for alternatives). If I were staying overnight in a hotel/B&B a much slower rate would also be acceptable and I'd expect a commensurately cheaper rate.

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

What needs to be remembered is how strategically placed rapid chargers fit into business models .... companies can charge what they want for their offerings, but the more they charge the higher the likelihood that competition would look to undercut ...

HTH
Z

Pondering that myself. Only a personal assumption, and I may be ignorant to reality, but I get the impression that the vast majority of folk using the services, don't use the fuel station. So the bulk of the revenue must be the other services, like a cooked breakfast for £10+.

Also offering 'reasonable' charging prices (not cheap, but not excessive) at 100's of spaces would attract more customers, or at least, lose less customers.

But, from comments by EV'ers on here, even expensive leccy (as you point out too) is still cheaper motoring. It seems to all be about context / big picture. And I suggest the big picture is looking really good, what is available in the BEV world today is an acceptable solution going forward, we just need more, and for prices to continue to fall.

Martyn1981

Speaking of AGW and emissions from different sectors, I'm feeling quite bullish that transport is now solveable (the technology is good enough now, so will only get better), so here's a look at Germany, with a nice graph on how EU sector emissions have changed over time:

As Dieselgate scandal widens, will Germany finally tackle transport emissions?

Facing their biggest scandal in recent history, German automakers are scrambling to save face. Environmentalists view their overtures with skepticism, but say recent developments point to a tipping point on the horizon

But as a scandal-plagued industry feverishly tries to recall millions of cars and update emission-cheating software, it's also trying to remove the dark diesel stain from its image by moving toward full electrification.

It appears that Germany's automotive industry might finally have given up on the combustion engine. Critics, however, aren’t so sure.