Electric cars

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Let's look at the fuller picture through the quarter.


<looks back on archive.org>
A third of the way through the quarter, 1st Nov, they were estimating 29,802 for the quarter to date. That would take the quarterly total to 90,000-ish.
Half-way through the quarter, 14th Nov, they were estimating 37,362 for the quarter to date. That would take the quarterly total to 75,000-ish.
Two-thirds of the way through the quarter, 1st Dec, they were estimating 41,465 for the quarter to date. That would take the quarterly total to 62,200-ish.
Nearing the end of the quarter, 14th Dec, they were estimating 50,784 for the quarter to date. That would take the quarterly total to 61,000-ish.
The last archived page is 21st Dec, when they were estimating 53,399 for the quarter to date. That would take the total to 60,400-ish.

Yes, the estimates have been refined - constantly. As they always have. Looks like something started to go a bit quicker than expected in the last week or two, with the expected December decline being stemmed - looks like they were pretty bob-on at the end of November, after a massively optimistic start to the quarter. That's what happens as you refine estimates...



Of course, it couldn't be Tesla trying to pull all the stops out to get a nice number for the end-of-quarter, could it?

I can only provide you with the information, I can't make you believe it.

"You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it think."

AdrianC

No, you can't make me believe what goes against all the other information available. When one source is an outlier, and has a vested interest, scepticism is usually the right path.

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Of course, it couldn't be Tesla trying to pull all the stops out to get a nice number for the end-of-quarter, could it?

Of course it is. They've done that every quarter end, with a 'rest' in the first month of each quarter. This isn't news to you is it? This is another reason for the difference between cross-quarter weekly averages and the one week burst rates.

I take it you don't like Tesla pushing back against the trolls and FUD'sters, and their need to keep Wall Street happy? This is one of the reasons Elon gave for wanting to get off the public-merry-go-round.

You can't have it both ways, complain endlessly about Tesla, then complain that they push back.

Remember, pace yourself, there's a lot of 2019 left, don't overFUD too soon, or you'll have nowhere left to go.

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

No, you can't make me believe what goes against all the other information available. When one source is an outlier, and has a vested interest, scepticism is usually the right path.

You being the outlier, right?

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

I take it you don't like Tesla pushing back against the ... need to keep Wall Street happy? This is one of the reasons Elon gave for wanting to get off the public-merry-go-round.

That worked well, didn't it?

Martyn1981

Some cracking numbers for Tesla in the US, with the TM3 coming in at #11 for car sales in 2018, #5 for car sales in Q4, and #4 for car sales in Dec (also the #1 selling car from a US manufacturer).

Tesla Model 3 = #11 Best Selling Car in USA in 2018

A look at the December figures show it at 25.5k v's the #1 Toyota Camry (a far, far cheaper car) at 29k.

Sadly (not really) I doubt it will climb much higher as they are now exporting to Europe and China.

This other article is also just as promising regarding BEV's, as it proves the demand is there, we just need the supply:

Electric Vehicle Sales Up 130% In 2018, 210% In Q4 2018 — US Electric Car Sales Report

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Some cracking numbers for Tesla in the US, with the TM3 coming in at #11 for car sales in 2018, #5 for car sales in Q4, and #4 for car sales in Dec (also the #1 selling car from a US manufacturer).

But only if you define "cars" so tightly as to exclude SUVs and crossovers, which are massively outselling "cars", to the point that most mainstream manufacturers are dropping their ranges of "cars", including the Focus that's only just behind the Model 3's sales. That's being replaced by the "Focus Active", a... crossover.



http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/12/november-2018-ytd-u-s-suv-and-crossover-sales-rankings-every-suv-ranked/
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/12/november-2018-ytd-u-s-passenger-car-sales-rankings-best-selling-cars-in-america/

A look at the December figures show it at 25.5k v's the #1 Toyota Camry (a far, far cheaper car) at 29k.

Up to the end of November, the "No1 selling" Camry's 314k sales would have put it fourth after three SUVs (Toyota RAV4, Nissan Rogue and Honda CR-V). The Model 3's 114k would have put it 24th. Yes, it's the first "luxury" brand - but it's not far ahead of the Lexus RX. Yes, the monthly sales alone would have put it much higher - probably about 8th.

As for "no1 from a US manufacturer", the vast majority of those ahead of it are US- or North American-manufactured (No1, Toyota RAV4, is built in Canada for NA markets). They might not be US-owned brands, but...

buglawton

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Some cracking numbers for Tesla in the US, with the TM3 coming in at #11 for car sales in 2018, #5 for car sales in Q4, and #4 for car sales in Dec (also the #1 selling car from a US manufacturer).

Tesla Model 3 = #11 Best Selling Car in USA in 2018

A look at the December figures show it at 25.5k v's the #1 Toyota Camry (a far, far cheaper car) at 29k...

3rd jan 2019:
https://londonlovesbusiness.com/tesla-shares-tumble-on-disappointing-quarterly-performance/
Tesla shares sank 8 per cent today after the car maker delivered fewer-than-expected Model 3 sedans in the fourth quarter. The company added that it will be reducing the price of Model S, Model X and Model 3 vehicles in the US by $2,000 (£1,587).

Herzlos

AdrianC wrote: »

But only if you define "cars" so tightly as to exclude SUVs and crossovers, which are massively outselling "cars", to the point that most mainstream manufacturers are dropping their ranges of "cars", including the Focus that's only just behind the Model 3's sales.

But Tesla doesn't have a Crossover yet, so I think it's fair to compare like with like. Unless you want to also add light trucks into the definition of cars?


For the space Tesla is competing in at this exact moment, it's doing amazingly well for something you're adamant isn't viable for some reason.


Do they have plans for a Crossover, at more in line with the TM3 than the TMX? Because that'd be a real big seller (and likely what I'd go for - the X is stunning but I'll never be able to justify it).

As for "no1 from a US manufacturer", the vast majority of those ahead of it are US- or North American-manufactured (No1, Toyota RAV4, is built in Canada for NA markets). They might not be US-owned brands, but...

... it's not even built in the US (the Rav4).
American brands used to be a big thing for the US, but I guess practicality has taken over there and I'm not sure many people actually care where stuff is built.

zeupater

buglawton wrote: »

3rd jan 2019:
https://londonlovesbusiness.com/tesla-shares-tumble-on-disappointing-quarterly-performance/
Tesla shares sank 8 per cent today after the car maker delivered fewer-than-expected Model 3 sedans in the fourth quarter. The company added that it will be reducing the price of Model S, Model X and Model 3 vehicles in the US by $2,000 (£1,587).

Hi

... Although it's highly likely that this will be the first of many reductions over the coming years as economies of scale savings on EVs and their specific components become available.

From previous discussions we're all highly aware that over the past 6 months Tesla have concentrated on incremental improvements to the production processes, so why wouldn't anyone expect a proportion of this to be passed on to the customer through a general price reduction?

What needs to be recognised by those who follow markets is that whenever new technologies build their own market sectors, prices initially start high and reduce over time - just over a decade ago, 42" flat screen TVs cost around 10x more than their equivalents do now and the manufacturers that didn't adapt to change suffered massively where those that chose to compete agressively on pricing in order to drive expansion are now some of the largest companies around ... this is exactly what is happening, yet those commentating don't seem to recognise that there's now a crossover between the automotive & technology sectors which will be a game changer to them, but also to others such as energy, building, infrastructure etc.

Times are changing faster than many are willing or able to accept!

HTH
Z