Electric cars

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

You'll have to excuse my crystal ball - it's clearly not working right, since it's refusing to tell me how many vehicles each will sell next summer.


Yes, you're right. According to those figures, apparently sourced from OEMs and Autodata, Ford shifted 917,146 F-series in the US in the first nine months of this year (roughly 2/3 of which were F150s), while Tesla are estimated to have shifted 64,150 vehicles in total. S/X/3 in the US. So, yes, ~10x seems about right according to those figures, wouldn't you say?

Glad we got it all cleared up in the end, and my apologies for having mis-read the market-share figure originally.

Hi

Odd really, you don't normally have problems with resorting to using a crystal ball (Tesla Q3 profitability etc!) ... does it only work to help convey negativity?


Regarding "According to those figures ..." .. as you're aware, your argument on the comparison on F150 vs TM3 build dates back to a post where you challenged a remark made by Martyn that the TM3 (Martyn1981)"... could/might outsell all other cars from Aug 18 to July 19 in the US. Might even get close to the Ford F150 pick up. Quite an achievement." with the retort (AdrianC) "And you reckon that in the year from this month on, they can actually make a big dent in the US car market", before introducing totally irrelevant logic and calculations as supporting 'proof' of a future supposition, which even by your own attempts to re-spin have been accepted to be incorrect by a factor of 4!

As for "Tesla are estimated to have shifted 64,150 vehicles in total. S/X/3 in the US. So, yes, ~10x seems about right according to those figures" ... they may be, but that's just introducing even more smoke & mirrors in order to cover your original mistake ... neither of you were talking 2018YTD, the period covering the comparison has been "Aug 18 to July 19" all along and although you know it you'd rather attempt to maintain argument either as a face-saving exercise or because you simply have an intent to create distraction where there's positive talk on EVs, whilst regularly covering the obvious anti-EV/renewables bias with obfuscation along the lines of .. "both have a strong and necessary place"... before returning to the normal criticism which either has no support, or irrelevant data spun to seem relevant to those reticent to check the logic and follow the obfuscation trail back to it's source ...

For any manufacturing business to continue, the business model needs to be based on forecasting sales & production to enable planning, manning, sourcing, investment, etc .. decisions to be taken. This is especially so in automotive sector where both long product development & varying component supply lead times exist. These companies provide long term visibility to their supply chain based on forecasted platform build so that suppliers can take strategic decisions, followed by individual component supply schedules split into forecast, tentative & firm supply, each of which has a differing legal implication within the customer/vendor supply relationship and may also have financial implications where tooling is amortised into component prices... it is therefore comparatively rare for there to be a serious mismatch between what is planned and what is actually built other than when external influences have an impact on supply or demand ... the industry may refer to it as planning and have ERP systems & specialist departments performing the relevant calculations to keep things running smoothly, whereas you may think it's done by looking into a crystal ball and therefore irrelevant - I know which of the two opposing viewpoints is likely to be correct & therefore have no real issue with using representative build forecasts ...

HTH
Z

#

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Oh, and yes, I did notice the other mistake/misinformation in the following, maybe others have too! ...

... Ford shifted 917,146 F-series in the US in the first nine months of this year (roughly 2/3 of which were F150s), while Tesla are estimated to have shifted 64,150 vehicles in total. S/X/3 in the US. So, yes, ~10x seems about right according to those figures, wouldn't you say?

... quoting a source which simply "estimates" sales is a little different to questioning accuracy ... Q1 to Q3 deliveries of M3 alone were 82471 in North America, with a couple of thousand being in Canada after deliveries started in mid May and Q3 totalling ~1540, thus suggesting that the volume estimate in the source data was also wrong!! ...

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Anybody else with anything else?

I hope you don't intend to play the victim. It's your decision and yours alone to post negative, argumentative and false comments after every post, article and news item. And similarly, it's your decision to try to spin and lie your way out when caught.

If you don't like the pushback then stop posting FUD, or is this the only way you can get attention!

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

I hope you don't intend to play the victim.

Why would I? What is there to be a "victim" over? <shrug>

Martyn1981

Interesting news / speculation. Obviously a lot of co-operation already exists between car company partnerships, but with EV's (batt, motor and floorpan/batt pack standardisation) the gains could be far greater.

Ford, Volkswagen To Partner On Electric & Autonomous Cars

NigeWick

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Interesting news / speculation.

Perhaps, at last, they can see the writing on the wall.

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Interesting news / speculation. Obviously a lot of co-operation already exists between car company partnerships, but with EV's (batt, motor and floorpan/batt pack standardisation) the gains could be far greater.

Ford, Volkswagen To Partner On Electric & Autonomous Cars

Hi

Likely that there'd also be a considerable degree of rationalisation in the sector as a whole ... there's plenty of component, platform & technology sharing which leaves a number of companies more financially exposed to changes towards electrification (think engines etc) & others in a relatively strong position (think higher integrated production) ... as market capitalisation varies somebody will be looking to take advantage of the situation from one side of the fence or the other!

HTH
Z

silverwhistle

I sometimes think motoring journalists shouldn't comment on electric cars as they are far too enthusiastic to realise that for many of us cars are just a tool, and we don't do massive mileages; my own is less than the UK average of 7,900 miles a year.


A recent item on my newsfeed was from Autocar, I think, where the journalist was saying we need as many charging points as there are electric cars. Now the number of public charging points will need to be increased to cater for those without dedicated parking but I don't think his arithmetic really took into account that with a range of 150 miles that equates almost exactly to only once a week charging based on average mileage. With a 22kW charger that will be a couple of hours to get to 80%. Virtually everybody with off-road parking will have a charger eventually, or even just rely on a granny charger if they are really low mileage.


Then there was an even more abject article on the subject that luckily I couldn't finish as it was behind the Telegraph ghetto paywall. In retrospect I may have come across Christopher Booker before, but his main schtick seems to be as a Neanderthal lamenting the arrival of Cro-magnon man. He'd have probably been an enthusiastic prosecutor of Galileo back in the day based on some of his other articles.


Would it be possible to have a bit of mainstream journalism which actually addressed the issue in a reasonable way?

buglawton

In this very thread we've posts saying that 35p/unit - near 3x domestic rate being charged at fast charging service stations - is OK because anyone in their right mind would mostly charge at home.

Try that in streets like this

Herzlos

Those posts usually include a caveat like "for those with off-road parking". One of the few outstanding problems is houses without on-site parking, or dedicated parking, and how users can charge those cars.


On-street might not be a problem if enough charging spots are provided.
Given that the average usage of a car now, with current EV tech means a weekly charge at most (so maybe an hour a week on a charger), it may be possible for people to charge the car whilst at work, or Asda, or the train station, or cinema, or retail park or whatever. I know I spend more than an hour a week in an Asda car park waiting for the Mrs to pop in for 2 minutes for bread.


For those who drive but somehow don't use any other car parks that might have facilities, then they'd probably need to spend 20-40 minutes every 100-150 miles charging at a station.



The idea that every car needs a dedicated overnight charging point is nonsense. For those that do have one though, it means they'll likely never need to charge anywhere else unless on a road trip.

buglawton

So it's going to be a society of charging haves, driveway parking with domestic rate electricity tariffs, and charging have-nots, paying 2-3 times as much at public service points?