Electric cars

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Nope they've been in the news touring the US, you can't possibly have forgotten already ......... easy to build mules ring any bells?

I haven't forgotten at all. And I stand by it.

All manufacturers knock mules up to test things. Most are rough and ready early prototypes for technical development, but some make those mules pretty and use them for hype generation. I should damn well hope they have got viable running wagons given it's now a year since that unveil. If they hadn't, then surely even you would have admitted it was dead in the water...?

It's all a piece of cake when you have something that's as Meccano as trucks. And a LONG way from something that's production-ready.

Here's a hint: This is what the bare frame from Merc's current Actros "long-distance" range looks like:


High-tech, huh? See what I mean about "Meccano"?

...and here's how Merc illustrate building a bare frame up into a fully-electric truck, a 6x2 rigid in this case...

(Blue is what differs from the normal diesel equivalent)
There's no rocket science going on. It's all off-the-shelf gubbins.


Still, this is pretty much word-for-word what I said back in March, isn't it?
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/73996941#Comment_73996941

Still reckon the Semi is on-track for the originally stated 2019 production? Me neither.
The "logistics and supply-chain management" reporter for Forbes is even more pessimistic.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevebanker/2018/09/28/the-elon-musk-controversy-casts-doubt-on-the-viability-of-tesla-semi/
...but what would he know?

BTW, Merc delivered the first real-world-customer-test trucks coming up for two months ago, btw.
https://electrek.co/2018/09/17/mercedes-benz-eactros-all-electric-heavy-duty-trucks-deliveries/
I don't remember you lauding them for it?

Same battery packs as Merc's EvoBus are using in Citaro chassis.
https://www.batterypoweronline.com/news/evobus-chooses-li-ion-battery-systems-for-electric-bus/

...which are going into full series production by the end of the year.
https://www.daimler.com/products/buses/mercedes-benz/citaro-e-cell.html
...using "tried and tested" axles and motors.
https://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/03/20180305-citaro.html

Roughly 300kg per 24kWh battery pack, 10 per vehicle giving 240kWh total, so 3t of battery - they're from the same supplier used by various other commercial manufacturers, including Volvo and VAG.
https://www.akasol.com/en/industrial-vehicles
If we go with the 800-1,000kWh Tesla speculation (which'd fit with the relative ranges being talked about), then we're looking at the thick end of 10t for the batteries alone. That's more than the entire weight of a diesel Actros tractor unit. What was it I was saying about payload?

Oh, and Merc are quoting 3-11hr charge time. Cannae change the laws of physics, cap'n.

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

No issues at all around the post I actually made, with all the information contained in it to back up the comments I actually made. I've linked back to it often enough

Hi

:wall: ... see, you just can't stand by your own claim of .. "When I've made an error, or have been mistaken, I've been only to happy to stand corrected" .. and simply hide behind a barrier of even more smoke & mirrors ...

To be concise ... in answer to Martyn's comment that the TM3 "... could/might outsell all other cars from Aug 18 to July 19 in the US. Might even get close to the Ford F150 pick up. Quite an achievement.", your reply was ...

AdrianC wrote: »

Is there any reality which will impinge upon your rampant astroturfing for St Elon?

Yes, they're finally ramping production up - but still very slowly. To date, they've had 2x 4,000+ car weeks, 2x 3,800+ car weeks, and another 3x 3,000 car weeks (one in April, one in May). A week ago, they put out just 2,800 - one of just three weeks ~2,500+. The grand total is still <60k cars.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

And you reckon that in the year from this month on, they can actually make a big dent in the US car market? Tesla has 0.7% of the car market this year to date...
https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/salesfig_usa_2018
...and trucks outsell cars 2:1. Ford shift over 800,000 F150s - to get close to that, Tesla would be looking at nearly a quarter of the total car market, a 35x increase from now...

... note that it's clear that both of you were referencing sales over a period of a year from Aug'18-July'19 (not the remainder of current calendar year) and that your own original claim was that Tesla would need to build 35x more than they were 'now' (at the time)as per the statistics you've used either to intentionally spin misinform, or in error ...

Now, the data made available at the time was that F150 annual production/sales were ~800k/year & M3 stood at a cumulative ~60k, so ...

- does 800/60=35? - no, it's 13x
- does (800k/52)/4k=35? - no, it's 3.8x, so let's not even bother with 2.5k

.... that's about as good as it gets to establish the forward 12month range starting 08/18, moreover, working on ((800/52)/4100) provides a multiplier of 3.75x when comparing originally estimated F150 build with what we now know to be TM3 Q3/18 ... nothing like 35 times in those figures either ...

Move on a couple of weeks and there was an attempt to spin the mistake through adjusting the multiplier to 22x on the basis that you'd included all Ford F series as opposed to just the F150 ...

AdrianC wrote: »

To rival the best-selling vehicle, the Ford F150 pickup, as you had suggested, at the then-current production rates.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/5591486/electric-cars&page=97#1927

Yes, I included the entire F-series in that by mistake. Sorry, it should only have been around 22x. My bad ...

... whilst totally overlooking the data supplied showed that the ''then-current production rates" for the TM3 varied between 3k & 4k/week as well as the original elephant in the room ... the period in discussion wasn't what you were attempting to spin (based on a form of YTD vs Full year fudge) it was the following 12 months, as per your "the year from this month on" and Martyn's "Aug 18 to July 19", hence the continual requests for the error to be recognised & accepted ...

Of course, you'll not accept the error, but it was the error you "actually made" at the time and have yet to understand ... you've both said that you're talking about the same production/sales period, yet whilst Martyn is providing information & conclusions related to that period, you're still spinning a combination of YTD and full year production either in the hope that no-one understands or even cares enough to follow what you've done, or because you simply can't see the error in what you've done ...

If Tesla build an average 5500 TM3s per week over that period, and Ford build 800k F series vehicles over the period "Aug 18 to July 19", the multiplier is around 3.2x and if taken over a 500k build of F150s the multiplier over the same period is around 2x, which is effectively what Martyn has been saying all along ...

I don't really care how many times you attempt to provide links to spin your mistake into becoming non-issue, but as you now claim that you accept mistakes when made and are happy to stand corrected then stand corrected and smile with a happy smile ... :D:D ...

HTH
Z

AdrianC

OK...

Everything's on this page... Yes, it's been updated since that August post with more recent figures.
https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/salesfig_usa_2018

So we can all agree that "quarter of the car market" would be around 35x 0.7%, right? That's basic arithmetic, isn't it?

And during the first nine months of 2018, Ford shifted 917k F-series, while the total new car sales were 4.1m units?

Are we comfy using 1m as "more than 917k"?
Are we comfy in calling that about a quarter of 4.1m?
Well, OK. Let's be a bit more accurate. 920k is more than 917k, and only 22.5% of 4.1m.

Meanwhile, Tesla's market share has dropped from the 0.7% I referred to then to 0.5%. Aha! I see it... That's Tesla's share of the entire car and LCV market, not just the car market.

Their car market share for the first nine months of the year was a tidge over 1.5%. You're right. I was out. Mea culpa!

So, if we go with the full F-series figure, then the correct figure as of now is (22.5/1.5) = 15x, and if we go with the same 62% of F-series sales for just F150s, then 9.5x.

My most sincere apologies.

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

OK...

Everything's on this page... Yes, it's been updated since that August post with more recent figures.
https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/salesfig_usa_2018

So we can all agree that "quarter of the car market" would be around 35x 0.7%, right? That's basic arithmetic, isn't it?

And during the first nine months of 2018, Ford shifted 917k F-series, while the total new car sales were 4.1m units?

Are we comfy using 1m as "more than 917k"?
Are we comfy in calling that about a quarter of 4.1m?
Well, OK. Let's be a bit more accurate. 920k is more than 917k, and only 22.5% of 4.1m.

Meanwhile, Tesla's market share has dropped from the 0.7% I referred to then to 0.5%. Aha! I see it... That's Tesla's share of the entire car and LCV market, not just the car market.

Their car market share for the first nine months of the year was a tidge over 1.5%. You're right. I was out. Mea culpa!

So, if we go with the full F-series figure, then the correct figure as of now is (22.5/1.5) = 15x, and if we go with the same 62% of F-series sales for just F150s, then 9.5x.

My most sincere apologies.

Hi


Getting there slowly ... 35x, then 22x, now 9.5x ... so, back to the elephant ... the period in discussion didn't include anything before August 2018, it was an estimated comparison between F150 (not F series!) & TM3 production & sales for the 12 months August 2018 to July 2019 ....

Maybe you'll get close to the correct estimate of it being in the region of 2x eventually ... most of us have been thinking around that ballpark figure for some months because it's not that hard ... no need for convoluted complexity involving multiple market segments and individual platform shares of those segments or how the segmental analysis changes by quarter - it's simply one annualised total figure divided by another, nothing more, nothing less!


HTH
Z

AdrianC

zeupater wrote: »

the period in discussion didn't include anything before August 2018, it was an estimated comparison between F150 (not F series!) & TM3 production & sales for the 12 months August 2018 to July 2019 ....

You'll have to excuse my crystal ball - it's clearly not working right, since it's refusing to tell me how many vehicles each will sell next summer.

it's simply one annualised total figure divided by another, nothing more, nothing less!

Yes, you're right. According to those figures, apparently sourced from OEMs and Autodata, Ford shifted 917,146 F-series in the US in the first nine months of this year (roughly 2/3 of which were F150s), while Tesla are estimated to have shifted 64,150 vehicles in total. S/X/3 in the US. So, yes, ~10x seems about right according to those figures, wouldn't you say?

Glad we got it all cleared up in the end, and my apologies for having mis-read the market-share figure originally.

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

I haven't forgotten at all. And I stand by it.

So you stand by your claims that road going mules are quick and easy to build, and also your claim that the Tesla trucks at the launch were stage locked mock-ups, and your claim that the road going mules, so easy to build, are not the two identical semi's from the launch?

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

OK...

Everything's on this page... Yes, it's been updated since that August post with more recent figures.
https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/salesfig_usa_2018

So we can all agree that "quarter of the car market" would be around 35x 0.7%, right? That's basic arithmetic, isn't it?

And during the first nine months of 2018, Ford shifted 917k F-series, while the total new car sales were 4.1m units?

Are we comfy using 1m as "more than 917k"?
Are we comfy in calling that about a quarter of 4.1m?
Well, OK. Let's be a bit more accurate. 920k is more than 917k, and only 22.5% of 4.1m.

Meanwhile, Tesla's market share has dropped from the 0.7% I referred to then to 0.5%. Aha! I see it... That's Tesla's share of the entire car and LCV market, not just the car market.

Their car market share for the first nine months of the year was a tidge over 1.5%. You're right. I was out. Mea culpa!

So, if we go with the full F-series figure, then the correct figure as of now is (22.5/1.5) = 15x, and if we go with the same 62% of F-series sales for just F150s, then 9.5x.

My most sincere apologies.

Lots of smoke, lots of mirrors and lots of spin, but let's put aside the above nonsense and go back to the claim, which was quite simple, that Tesla would have to increase the then TM3 production by a factor of 22 (revised down from the original false claim of 35) to match US F-150 sales.

Since TM3 production at the time was around 4,000 per week with peaks of 5,000, we get an annual production of approx 208k to 260k.

We also know that annual F-150 sales in the US are ~500,000.

So the components of the claim were TM3 production at the time, annual F-150 sales, and the increase in TM3 production to meet said F-150 sales.

Everything else you post is total and utter unrelated garbage regarding your original claim. You simply post nonsense and hope to distract with it, or hide behind it rather than having the honesty and decency to:-

AdrianC wrote: »

When I've made an error, or have been mistaken, I've been only to happy to stand corrected.

So, according to you, 500,000 is 22x greater than 208,000-260,000.

Back to Dunning-Kruger, I suspect your failure of such simple maths, is why you think it's everyone else:

AdrianC wrote: »

Numbers really aren't your forte, are they?

Hermione_Granger

AdrianC wrote: »

When I've made an error, or have been mistaken, I've been only to happy to stand corrected.

So when are you going to admit that your assertion that the Vienna convention on international traffic covers the requirement for 3rd party liabilities when driving in signatory countries because when it was pointed out to you that this was totally incorrect, you didn't "stand corrected", you simply went silent and stopped posting.

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/5889551/motor-insurance-post-brexit&highlight=motor+insurance+post+brexit

AdrianC

Blimey, even my other half doesn't remember quite this many of my failings!

I don't even remember that thread. <shrug> I suspect I probably intended to look it up later, and simply forgot. Happy to take your word for it.


Anybody else with anything else?

almillar

AdrianC:

What would you say about a company with "green" in their name, who shout about tariffs offering "100% renewable energy" - then go on in the small print to say... "We're not currently generating energy from renewables in the UK, however we do have tariffs backed by 100% renewable electricity." ?

Misleading? Or absolutely fair marketing?

https://greennetworkenergy.co.uk/help-centre/information-about-switching/100-renewable-electricity-come/

The key is at the end of that spiel...
"So, although we can’t guarantee that what ends up in your home will be directly from renewable electricity sources – no supplier can – we can show that for every unit you use, we’ve bought the equivalent amount of renewable electricity."

I say fair enough. If they have customers that use 10GWh of electricity, they have to buy 10GWh of 100% renewable electricity. The alternative would be to only be hooked up to wind and solar, and for the lights to go out on a dark still night! It has to be done 'gross' not 'net'.

And, if they didn't buy it from the renewable generators, somebody else would.

That seems to result from the excellent economics of renewables - hardly a problem.

And just watch those brown-outs on still winter evenings...

That would be electric companies not keeping their promises...

iolanthe07:

£7295 for a two year old car with only 17k miles seems an extraordinary good deal on the surface.. I haven't seen it, but I'm tempted to have a look.

Yep, that's a battery lease car as I described previously. And as it says in the ad, you've got at least £50 per month to pay for the battery, depending on your mileage (it was £80 for 7,500 miles per year for me). What mileage would you be doing?

So battery leases are a new and unique thing, with some electric cars. An exception. What about other EVs, where's the depreciation?