Electric cars

zeupater

GunJack wrote: »

I think AdrianC is referring to the residual value of the batteries far outweighing the rest of the car, which I can see being the case....so yes, younger cars will end up being "taken out of service" if you don't like the term "scrapped"

Hi

The issue is that the power-train in an EV is likely to last multiple times as long as that in an ICE vehicle ... possibly 500k miles, likely more in time .... of course, this doesn't resolve to the same improvements in bodywork or trim, so there'll likely be the ability to extend the overall useful life of the vehicle by refurbishing a couple of times through it's life ... of course, a part of this process would include exchanging battery packs as (/if) required, however by the time it becomes an issue, even a new battery pack is likely to cost far less than currently addressing a major failure in a combustion engine ...

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

It's very unlikely that s/h EVs will ever get down to bangernomics type prices of £500-£1000 because the battery is valuable and provides a floor price, likely around £4K-£5k.

...at which point, a consumer durable with many more years of viable use ahead of it is scrapped. Not environmentally great, is it

That's either a deliberately false statement, or reflects complete ignorance of the issue.

If the battery is in good order then it'll have a value of several thousands. Why would the vehicle be scrapped if that's the case, why would the vehicle value still be £4k to £5k if the EV and battery have that value? You seem to be deliberately trying to misrepresent the position yet again.

It's also worth noting that EV batteries are taken out of vehicular service somewhere around the point they reach 80% capacity and/or are no longer able to cope with the enormous power demands of an EV.

At that stage they are still able to cope with the slower charge/discharge requirements of stationary batts, and will of course have enormous capacity considering that a domestic batt will usually be in the 5kWh to 15kWh range.

Martyn1981

Here's a thought and something Z and I have partly chatted about before, but when will EV's 'explode' into a true disruption.

I think Tesla, Nissan and Renault are well placed to ramp up production, and Jaguar seem to be looking good, but how many of the old guard can ramp up the numbers significantly?

The thought occurred to me watching the Munroe videos of the Model 3 teardown and their conclusion that Tesla have a 30% profit margin, something other car companies don't have on ICE cars (possibly Ford on their pickups). Also the GM Bolt production numbers are somewhere around 1/4 to 1/8th now of the Model 3 despite a one year headstart, possibly reflecting the fact that they lose a lot of money on every one they sell.

So am I being too optimistic about the timeline for a massive ramp up of EV's, if the old guard can't build enough, or don't want to build more due to their higher production costs? So a supply not demand issue.

Also have to wonder about GM and Ford who are really more banks these days than automotive companies. If too many EV's hit the market, then the residual value of the leased cars will fall, and they will lose a fortune on each car, or have to pump up the lease price, resulting in reduced 'sales'.

I'm starting to think that something big (good or bad) is going to happen in the next few years.

Herzlos

At some point the battery may be worth more without the car. As a house storage unit or for recycling. The rest of the car not being worth a new battery will likely be scrapped.

But it'll all depend on how replaceable/upgradeable batteries are, and new batteries may have similar costs to new engines.

NigeWick

GunJack wrote: »

one size very rarely fits all

You've obviously never been in the Army. "You'll grow into it".....

NigeWick

AnotherJoe wrote: »

You seem either spectacularly ill informed or just mischievous.

I have to disagree. I think Adrian is another founder member of pedantsRus. If I read correctly, he's got a particular set of circumstances in mind and nobody has yet matched it.

No, I haven't got a clue either. :eek:

AdrianC

zeupater wrote: »

The issue is that the power-train in an EV is likely to last multiple times as long as that in an ICE vehicle ...

Very few modern cars are scrapped because of terminal drivetrain failures. They're mostly scrapped because values have fallen low enough that they're simply not worth putting trivial amounts of money into basic maintenance - death by a thousand papercuts. MOT time comes, a tyre or two is needed, maybe a few suspension bushes and a windscreen.


If there's £4-5k of residual value in the battery, then the point at which that outweighs the resale value of the car itself comes after maybe half the typical car's current life. It gets broken for the battery value.

Gloomendoom

Just looking on ZapMap for potential charging points near our off-grid holiday place have seen several comments complaining that their Renault Zoe is giving the dreaded "charging not possible" message.

Anybody know more about this?

zeupater

AdrianC wrote: »

Very few modern cars are scrapped because of terminal drivetrain failures. They're mostly scrapped because values have fallen low enough that they're simply not worth putting trivial amounts of money into basic maintenance - death by a thousand papercuts. MOT time comes, a tyre or two is needed, maybe a few suspension bushes and a windscreen.

If there's £4-5k of residual value in the battery, then the point at which that outweighs the resale value of the car itself comes after maybe half the typical car's current life. It gets broken for the battery value.

Hi

Your point being? ... what needs to be appreciated is that the economic case for changing a current ICE vehicle is mainly based on the belief that high replacement cost components have a limited useful lifespan due to natural wear, tear & degradation, it's not usually items such as suspension components people worry about, it's mainly engine & transmission .... so, without even needing to access a crystal ball, most would accept that the vast reduction in the number of moving parts would lead to much higher average reliability & longer component lifespans, as well as the massively lower cost of purchasing & fitting those components if/when they do eventually fail ...

Your argument stands on current ICE economics and the ability for some to prefer to source a usable replacement vehicle for a price comparable to a new set of tyres or rectification of MOT points of failure, however, you also seem to accept that this will not be the case for EVs due to residual value ... isn't that the very point at hand - what makes sense because of the economics now won't make the same sense in the future! ... maybe people will look to refurbish their cars to extend their lifespan - it's almost certain that operators of TaaS fleets will need to do this to ensure that vehicle internal trim & bodywork meet their customer quality expectations - 150k miles has a huge impact on seat surfaces, carpets etc so how many times would just these items need to be refurbished if the operator's business model is based on 500k miles (or double that!) before the autonomous vehicle is sent to be recycled? ....


Regarding raising the point "If there's £4-5k of residual value in the battery" having an impact on the decision to scrap the vehicle - well, why would it be 'convenient' to use that kind of figure at all as it approximates to the current cost of a brand-new replacement battery pack for current range EVs. We're all aware of the current & projected continued rate of lithium battery cost reduction being in excess of 20%/year & we're all aware that the discussion is related to vehicles that are in the region of 10years old (or more!) ... so, shouldn't the "residual value in the battery" logically reflect costs towards the end of the next decade, not as they are today? ... so the case for arguing the point on the basis of a £4k-£5k battery becomes relevant in what way?

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Very few modern cars are scrapped because of terminal drivetrain failures. They're mostly scrapped because values have fallen low enough that they're simply not worth putting trivial amounts of money into basic maintenance - death by a thousand papercuts. MOT time comes, a tyre or two is needed, maybe a few suspension bushes and a windscreen.

Perhaps the suspension, but windscreens are usually covered by free or cheap insurance replacements, and tyres are simply running costs not terminal issues, unless of course you replace your car every time the tyres wear down!

ICE cars will die from an expensive engine repair, or gearbox, or clutch, or exhaust (especially if cat or dpf filters have issues), or serious cooling issue.

The simple fact that servicing is minimal, or in some cases not even recommended mean that a structurally sound EV will far outlive an ICE since the motivational parts of the ICE become ever more expensive to maintain.