Electric cars

DrEskimo

GunJack wrote: »

The ongoing costs may work out cheaper eventually,but unless fuel duty rises horrendously the other costs will be similar. not much difference in VED between £0 and £30 a year, MoT tests will still cost £30-£35, insurance could even be more as they price in expensive batteries needing replacement after crashes... so it's not so clear-cut as you think.....

What's a congestion charge, BTW?? For the majority of the population it's not something we need to consider as we don't live in big cities, cost = £0, and get a bit fed up of having to pay increased fuel costs "because of all the pollution in London/Manchester/insert city name in here"


But it's still the initial purchase price that is (and I expect it to be for a loooong time yet) the major sticking point....I've spent a total of around £800 for my last 5 cars, that's what electric cars are up against...

Well you need to factor in that EV's haven't been around nearly as long enough to be that cheap yet...the earliest EV on AT is 2013...

The cheapest ICE that's 5yrs old I can find is a £2k diesel Corsa with 165k miles on it...

GunJack

DrEskimo wrote: »

Well you need to factor in that EV's haven't been around nearly as long enough to be that cheap yet...the earliest EV on AT is 2013...

The cheapest ICE that's 5yrs old I can find is a £2k diesel Corsa with 165k miles on it...

..and your point is?? Will the first 15-y-o EV be down to £500 and still hold enough charge for 150+ miles?? I doubt it somehow.....

Herzlos

GunJack wrote: »

..and your point is?? Will the first 15-y-o EV be down to £500 and still hold enough charge for 150+ miles?? I doubt it somehow.....

Will it need to? What's the fuel economy like on your average 15 year old <£500 car?


Plus, you'll no doubt be able to replace the batter pack with a reconditioned or improved one, albeit it might cost more than a new clutch.


But like mentioned, you can't compare just the purchase price since the EV will be cheaper to run and maintain. You may even find a 5 year old EV will be cheaper to own than a 15 year old ICE, because the fuel is vastly cheaper (if not free).

zeupater

GunJack wrote: »

The ongoing costs may work out cheaper eventually,but unless fuel duty rises horrendously the other costs will be similar. not much difference in VED between £0 and £30 a year, MoT tests will still cost £30-£35, insurance could even be more as they price in expensive batteries needing replacement after crashes... so it's not so clear-cut as you think.....

What's a congestion charge, BTW?? For the majority of the population it's not something we need to consider as we don't live in big cities, cost = £0, and get a bit fed up of having to pay increased fuel costs "because of all the pollution in London/Manchester/insert city name in here"

But it's still the initial purchase price that is (and I expect it to be for a loooong time yet) the major sticking point....I've spent a total of around £800 for my last 5 cars, that's what electric cars are up against...

Hi

Maybe, but consider just some examples of the options available ...

- What if the roadtax is manipulated so that an ICE costs £more/year to keep on the road than it did to purchase, it's both possible & really easy to implement, all it takes is an announcement at the next budget! ...

- How about the fact that the last three elected governments have intentionally held back on previously planned annual fuel duty indexation to 'help' motorists - is it possible that this lever will be pulled the hardest to both play 'catch-up' & address the deficit ? ...

- What about an additional annual emissions/pollution tax either based on recorded MOT mileage or simply added to fuel costs at the pump? ...

- What about road pricing moving to a £cost/mile basis? ... something's going to have to happen to plug the gap in HM Treasury's revenues created by (domestic) electricity replacing petrol & diesel - although you can test for revenue payment with red diesel, how could you do the same for stored electrons?

One undeniable truth in time of rapid change is that change will happen rapidly, so it's almost incredulous to expect that any government looking to promote solutions to environmental issues that will have a negative effect their own revenues to not pull levers to both adjust the resulting deficit and ensure that consumers are 'encouraged' to take a decision to deliver the policy in a timely manner ...

There's a point at which EVs move from the realm of early adopters towards becoming the natural purchase of choice ... when this change happens, whatevr government is in power at the time will effectively be forced to take action & there'll be little that anyone will be able to do about it other than to comply, or pay for the privilege of not complying!

HTH
Z

GunJack

Herzlos wrote: »

Will it need to? What's the fuel economy like on your average 15 year old <£500 car?


Plus, you'll no doubt be able to replace the batter pack with a reconditioned or improved one, albeit it might cost more than a new clutch.

I get 61mpg averaged over all mileage in 11 months in my 15-y-o diesel.

What's a clutch replacement?? Again, I think you don't understand cheap motoring (I'm not trying to be offensive, but you can quite happily motor down on a small budget without considering such costs...in most cases a clutch replacement on any car would cost more than my next car, so it'd be sell/scrap the one needing a replacement clutch and go buy another car instead )

GunJack

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

Maybe, but consider just some examples of the options available ...

- What if the roadtax is manipulated so that an ICE costs £more/year to keep on the road than it did to purchase, it's both possible & really easy to implement, all it takes is an announcement at the next budget! ...

- How about the fact that the last three elected governments have intentionally held back on previously planned annual fuel duty indexation to 'help' motorists - is it possible that this lever will be pulled the hardest to both play 'catch-up' & address the deficit ? ...

- What about an additional annual emissions/pollution tax either based on recorded MOT mileage or simply added to fuel costs at the pump? ...

- What about road pricing moving to a £cost/mile basis? ... something's going to have to happen to plug the gap in HM Treasury's revenues created by (domestic) electricity replacing petrol & diesel - although you can test for revenue payment with red diesel, how could you do the same for stored electrons?

One undeniable truth in time of rapid change is that change will happen rapidly, so it's almost incredulous to expect that any government looking to promote solutions to environmental issues that will have a negative effect their own revenues to not pull levers to both adjust the resulting deficit and ensure that consumers are 'encouraged' to take a decision to deliver the policy in a timely manner ...

There's a point at which EVs move from the realm of early adopters towards becoming the natural purchase of choice ... when this change happens, whatevr government is in power at the time will effectively be forced to take action & there'll be little that anyone will be able to do about it other than to comply, or pay for the privilege of not complying!

HTH
Z

That's the biggest danger to costs for ICE - the Political factors you mention (and probably some that you, me or anyone else hasn't thought of yet). There's a hell of a lot of the country that has to rely on cars for everyday life & work, so hammering ICE will lead to less than desirable outcomes for the majority of people....

DrEskimo

GunJack wrote: »

..and your point is?? Will the first 15-y-o EV be down to £500 and still hold enough charge for 150+ miles?? I doubt it somehow.....

My point was you were comparing apples with oranges...

A £500 ICE is going to be >10years old with >100K miles on it. You can't compare that with a 2013 EV with <20k miles and say because it's 10x the price, EV's are too expensive. How much of the price difference is due to being a younger, less used car, and how much is due to it being a EV...? You can't tell...

Comparing, for example, a Renault Zoe with a Renault Clio of similar age and mileage, and the EV is about £1K cheaper....

What you/I think or don't think will be the case in 15years is really not worth discussing, as it's just pure speculation. I personally think that the current 5-yr old 20KwH Renault Zoe's going for £4k with battery rental will drop as low as £1k in a few years. They can do ~100miles, and due to the battery rental, will have batteries still at >80% capacity.

What happens with the battery rental model is anyone's guess though...but then you get into a different argument about reliability, cost of maintenance, etc.

almillar

I believe Nissan misrepresented the capabilities of the 40kWh 2018 Leaf.

I don't like how the new 40kWh Leaf has ended up, but I don't think they mis-represented. Early adoptors have been punished, but now everyone knows the limitations of having all that energy squished together with no cooling. And they can make their decision accordingly. Setting off from home with 100% charge, you can do 1 fast rapid charge, then subsequent ones will be slow due to the heat, so that gives you, say 300 miles of range, before having to worry about that. Many people won't come up against that limitation, and many more will hit it rarely.

I'll consider going electric when I can get 450+ miles on a charge, it charges in 10 mins (equivalent of a garage fill-up of diesel), and I can buy a decent used one for £500 or less...

That's the reality of driving for much of the population, and until electric gets as good as that, I think it'll struggle to go totally mainstream...

You've hit the 'cons' list pretty hard there. How about the pros? Do you have a petrol station in your home? If you're able to charge at home, and get into a full car every morning, you might not ever have to wait for a car to charge.
Please show me a decent used diesel car for £500. Once you buy that car, you need to service, tax, fuel it remember. I'll wait...

Slight digression but my brother-in-law was over recently (from Sweden) and pointed out that he's able to warm or cool his PHEV (30(ish) mile range) when the plane is landing

Remotely heating/cooling your car isn't EV exclusive, but makes a lot more sense. Some new Land Rovers and BMWs can 'pre-heat' and in colder climates pre-heating your car is a daily chore, I guess.

I think they'll be totally mainstream by the time they hit £10k used and can do 200 miles on a 30 minute charge.

It's opinion, and I won't argue about it, but here's roughly where we're at now - £12K, 80 miles on a 30 min charge - find a Renault Zoe i (no lease) with the Q210 motor (43kW AC charging). I stand to be corrected on the price, there are few around.

will there be a subsidy to me of £9500 from somewhere

It's only £4,500 I'm afraid.

insurance could even be more as they price in expensive batteries needing replacement after crashes

Negative and speculative, and not my experience in 3 years of insuring EVs.

I've spent a total of around £800 for my last 5 cars, that's what electric cars are up against...

You see, it's not. Nobody makes £800 cars. They make £10k+ cars. That's what EVs are up against, and when they're £15k odd, with lower running costs, they start to make sense.

I ran my Zoe for £4,000 for 2 years and 15,000 miles, all in. You'll think that number is high, but you need to compare it with a well specced, Clio sized, brand new car. The comparison is a bit unfair as Renault were giving away the Zoe on PCP, but still. You are riding on a wave of a good supply/demand ratio, making perfectly good cars available for under £1,000. That might not always last.

Will the first 15-y-o EV be down to £500 and still hold enough charge for 150+ miles?? I doubt it somehow....

The first Leafs, Zoes, i3s etc didn't do 150 miles in the first place. And yet people bought them. That's perfectly acceptable for MANY PEOPLE though, just not you. Or Adrian.

AdrianC

Herzlos wrote: »

You don't really need a crystal ball when manufacturers are announcing cars with those ranges in that time period. How accurate they'll turn out to be is a different matter.

Exactly...

There will be some teething problems whilst we make the switch over, just as I assume happened when we moved from horses or leaded petrol.

The move from horses to private cars took decades, and initially petrol was sold in sealed cans from chemists shops and blacksmiths.
The move from leaded to unleaded was all-but-trivial. Unleaded simply took the pumps and tanks that'd previously been used by 2* low-octane leaded, alongside 4* leaded, then LRP.

Assuming you were in an EV and had access to a charging space, you'd have been able to do that journey in an EV with no issues?

ANY journey can be done quite happily by EV with sufficient range and charging access, of course. And therein lies the gap between theory and current mass-market reality.

Herzlos

AdrianC wrote: »

ANY journey can be done quite happily by EV with sufficient range and charging access, of course. And therein lies the gap between theory and current mass-market reality.

Of course. But you're example of a journey too big for an EV (I assume that was your point), could have been done more conveniently with todays EV offerings than with combustion, assuming the infrastructure was in place. That's all I'm trying to establish.