Electric cars

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

Oh, and I don't recall seeing this story linked back in April. Apologies if it was, but it's still an interesting read.


https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-burns-cash/

Why do you keep posting old news when reality has already proven it wrong?

Tesla (TSLA) shorts have lost $2 billion in June as stock continues rise

Car_54

Martyn1981 wrote: »

But Tesla could outsell all of those, in fact they could outsell the BMW 2, 3 & 4 combined, and the Audi 3, 4 & 5 combined. Looks like the Model 3 will soon be taking the majority of the entire 'Small & Midsize Luxury Car' segment. We'll have to see in a few months when production ramps even higher and Tesla stops shipping the cars to Canada to avoid hitting the magic 200k US sales figure before end of Q2.

But a large part of the attraction of BMW etc. is the (relative) exclusivity.


It will be difficult to continue to position the Tesla as a "luxury" car if it is selling in Ford/GM numbers.

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Not bad for a car you were recently claiming wasn't even being delivered

It wasn't when I said that, back at the turn of the year. Tesla confirmed total production at ~2,500 at the end of 2017, and confirmed ~12,500 at the end of Q1 18. Let's see how the end-of-Q2 confirmation will fit with Bloomberg's tracker.



It is now starting to eat into that massive order backlog, but still nowhere near full volume, or even two-month-old estimates. There are believed to have been only three 2,500+ car weeks to date, one of which was just shy of 3k, followed by a peak of 3,600 - but that pair were followed by a 1,450 car week.

Martyn1981

Car_54 wrote: »

But a large part of the attraction of BMW etc. is the (relative) exclusivity.

Don't worry, based on their recent and rapidly falling sales numbers in the US, they are going to get much more exclusive.

AdrianC

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Don't worry, based on their recent and rapidly falling sales numbers in the US, they are going to get much more exclusive.

They appear to be holding fairly steady, especially considering the current (F30) range dates back to 2011, and the replacement (G20) is expected to be public at the Paris show this autumn, prior to hitting dealerships in volume next year.

http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/bmw/bmw-3-series-4-series/

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

It wasn't when I said that, back at the turn of the year.

Oh yes it was!

Martyn1981

AdrianC wrote: »

They appear to be holding fairly steady, especially considering the current (F30) range dates back to 2011, and the replacement (G20) is expected to be public at the Paris show this autumn, prior to hitting dealerships in volume next year.

http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/bmw/bmw-3-series-4-series/

Yep, I can't see any change in California from Nov 17 to Apr 18 either!

Tesla Model 3 sales beat BMW 3-Series and Mercedes C-Class during first quarter in California, says report

zeupater

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Yep, I can't see any change in California from Nov 17 to Apr 18 either!

Tesla Model 3 sales beat BMW 3-Series and Mercedes C-Class during first quarter in California, says report

Hi

Considering that they're a relatively new entrant to volume production manufacturing and introducing/combining so many technologies into a vehicle at the same time, I'm almost surprised that they're really building that many cars already ...

Setting ambitious project timescales and trying to meet them is probably the only way to keep everyone involved focussed, even if it does provide opportunity for derision along the way! ....

So, first manufacturing plant almost up & running at full speed with the majority of glitches ironed out and a rising level of experience with expectations of a second plant (likely Asia) announcement in H2 this year and a third likely to be announced for Europe at sometime next year .... just think, a few years time and a comparative newcomer & dedicated EV manufacturer will be a serious contender for a place in the top20 list of vehicle brands by volume - certainly makes you wonder what the next set of anti-EV arguments will be based on ... other than complaining about job losses in legacy manufacturers who've been slow to react & the reduction in dividends paid to fossil fuel sector shareholders, then again, that's what's going to happen, governments have already dictated such, so we'll all just have to accept that the rise of EVs as the future form of personal transport is happening, stop playing the part of Canute hoping to avoid the inevitable, and get used to it! ...

HTH
Z

Martyn1981

zeupater wrote: »

Hi

So, first manufacturing plant almost up & running at full speed with the majority of glitches ironed out and a rising level of experience ...

HTH
Z

Hiya, yep staggering news, but they aren't at full speed yet, the 5-6,000 per week target is for late June, but the true aim is 10,000 per week, perhaps early 2019.

They are now beginning to bring a third production line ... on-line, and to run 3 shifts per day, whereas before they used the third shift (plus occasional short shutdowns) for tweaking.

So they should round of the year with something like 200k M3's + 100k X/S's (tripling last years sales), and aiming for closer to 600k cars next year.

Then we get an even bigger jump with the Model Y and a production line designed for 1m cars pa (in the US), but with a CAPEX roughly equal to the 1/2m Model 3 production line.

And of course we then have to add in the Chinese factory, Semi truck, upcoming pick up (watch out Ford).

Let's hope Tesla forces the other companies to act faster (which it seems to be doing) and they start to build large numbers of EV's, rather than large numbers of concept cars. Jaguar looks to be getting 'beach body ready' with a great car, so game on!

PS - Rumours are that the rise in the Tesla share price is simply down to analysts re-evaluting the company given recent progress and announcements at the shareholders meeting. So, importantly, it isn't down to a 'shorts squeeze' where the shorts try to complete their positions by buying back the shares they need.

If that's true, then we may see a further price rise as the shorts panic and start to drive up the share price when the first breaks and starts buying, and the tsunami begins - after all shorts need to buy back about 20% of Tesla stock. Ouch!

AdrianC

zeupater wrote: »

So, first manufacturing plant almost up & running at full speed with the majority of glitches ironed out and a rising level of experience with expectations of a second plant (likely Asia) announcement in H2 this year and a third likely to be announced for Europe at sometime next year ....

Tesla have been assembling in NL since 2013.