The 2017 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

BobQ

I would add to Hamish's list

UK will invoke Article 50 in March, triggering a further fall in the pound. The ensuing uncertainty will result in the pound falling to about $1.1 by the end of the year.

Sibley

I always wait for the Hamish prediction post...:beer:
Usually gets it right as well.

I predict a positive year.

House prices have gone absolutely crazy now. Far higher than I ever imagined. Will it continue?. Who knows.

Interest rates has been key for me. Never dreamed they would remain low for years like they have. See no reason for a rise anytime soon. Originally thought I would just get a new car out of it. Looks like I will finish my mortgage on them now.

Brexit needs sorting of course.

I see the Labour party/ left wing in Europe taking a real hammering this year. We are one atrocity away from civil war in UK IMHO.

One more Lee Rigby, London bomb or famous person targeted and it will kick off.

Consumer debt to rise.

Thats my lot for now.

Conrad

BobQ wrote: »

a further fall in the pound. The ensuing uncertainty will result in the pound falling to about $1.1 by the end of the year.

Excellent news if it happens.

vivatifosi

Conrad wrote: »

Excellent news if it happens.

Why do you see this as excellent news? It will make items whose demand is inelastic, especially fuel and imported foods, significantly more expensive. This will hit those who can least afford it the most.

davomcdave

vivatifosi wrote: »

Why do you see this as excellent news? It will make items whose demand is inelastic, especially fuel and imported foods, significantly more expensive. This will hit those who can least afford it the most.

Presumably because of an over-simplistic world view that believes that lower pound = more exports and everyone knows exports are good right? Right? RIGHT?

Only how is Britain going to export more? Unemployment is at a long-time low, employment is the highest it's ever been and people tell me that Brexit means no more immigration. So who exactly is going to make all these extra exports. More likely is that British people have to import less which as vivatifosi says is made up in large part by things like food, medicine, cars and fuel. I'm unsure what the political implications are of the NHS not being able to import so many drugs that people need to survive. I suppose you could use a UK-made anti-depressant to treat your erectile dysfunction but it probably won't work.

CLAPTON

davomcdave wrote: »

Presumably because of an over-simplistic world view that believes that lower pound = more exports and everyone knows exports are good right? Right? RIGHT?

Only how is Britain going to export more? Unemployment is at a long-time low, employment is the highest it's ever been and people tell me that Brexit means no more immigration. So who exactly is going to make all these extra exports. More likely is that British people have to import less which as vivatifosi says is made up in large part by things like food, medicine, cars and fuel. I'm unsure what the political implications are of the NHS not being able to import so many drugs that people need to survive. I suppose you could use a UK-made anti-depressant to treat your erectile dysfunction but it probably won't work.

do you genuinely not know enough economics (or common sense ) tp provide the answers to your questions?
If so and you ask politely I am happy to provide the answers

davomcdave

CLAPTON wrote: »

do you genuinely not know enough economics (or common sense ) tp provide the answers to your questions?
If so and you ask politely I am happy to provide the answers

Given the current state of the British economy how do you think exports can be increased please?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

vivatifosi wrote: »

Why do you see this as excellent news? It will make items whose demand is inelastic, especially fuel and imported foods, significantly more expensive. This will hit those who can least afford it the most.

On a related note - it's also been reported today that the private sector pensions shortfall increased by £90 billion in the 24 hours after Brexit due to currency devaluation.

CLAPTON

davomcdave wrote: »

Given the current state of the British economy how do you think exports can be increased please?

the issue is the difference between imports and exports. i.e the current account deficit.
As you know we have a massive deficit.
As you know every increase in the UK population requires new essential imports (food, fuel etc)
whilst, of course every increase in population doesn't increase exports.
As you already know, the current account trading deifict is funded by the UK borrowing foreign money and also selling off UK assets and future earnings.

So our relatively high currency value was funded not by being a very successful exporting country but by borrowing and selling off assets and future earnings.

The fall in the pound is neither good nor bad but a consequence of the perception of overseas markets. Undoubtedly the pound was certain to fall as borrowing and selling assets is not sustainable : brexit undoubted provided the catalyst for the fall.

However, we are were we are.

The fall in the value of the pound will
-increase the price of imports and will encourage people to find substitutes, to economise on usage etc.
-it will reduce the price of exports making them more attractive and increasing the exporters margin : this will increase the sale of exports and encourage new people to enter the export market and/or introduce new products.

As you know there is no shortage of labour in the UK : you only need to walk down any high street and see the masses of restaurants/cafes, nailbars etc etc all recently opened.

You seem to hypothesis that exports are only held back by labour shortages : whilst I see no evidence for this , nevertherless if it is so then the usual classical solution will be enacted i.e. the price of labour in the export markets will rise and so attract sufficient labour to produce the (now more profitable) exports.
In my view the low level of exports has nothing to do with labour shortgages but the formally high level of the pound, low productivity plus of course the difficutly of selling into very competitive market places.

So to correct our balance fo payment problems we need to
-stop all immigration to reduce the amount of essential imports
-hope that the lower level of the pound will increase exports
-increase productivity so reducing price and/or increasing profit margin

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

On a related note - it's also been reported today that the private sector pensions shortfall increased by £90 billion in the 24 hours after Brexit due to currency devaluation.

a nonsense statistic but nevertheless illustrates the disasterous policy of importing huge numbers of people who consume imports but do not create matching exports. (plus of course creating huge problems with housing, transport and NHS).
At least we can agree the best short term policy is an immediate freeze on new arrivals.