The 2017 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

CLAPTON wrote: »

So to correct our balance fo payment problems we need to
-stop all immigration to reduce the amount of essential imports
-hope that the lower level of the pound will increase exports
-increase productivity so reducing price and/or increasing profit margin

CLAPTON wrote: »

illustrates the disasterous policy of importing huge numbers of people who consume imports but do not create matching exports. (plus of course creating huge problems with housing, transport and NHS)..

It's been explained to you dozens of times by many different posters why you're completely wrong on this topic yet you keep posting the same old nonsensical arguments anyway.

I'm not going to get sucked into another exchange that can only be described as wasting my time - as you clearly have no intention of learning anything or being objective - and only wish to make up spurious excuses to justify your anti-immigration stance.

At least we can agree the best short term policy is an immediate freeze on new arrivals

No.

Just the opposite in fact.

We need to radically increase immigration to rapidly grow the economy, reduce the deficit, and increase the net financial benefit to UK public finances.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It's been explained to you dozens of times by many different posters why you're completely wrong on this topic yet you keep posting the same old nonsensical arguments anyway.

I'm not going to get sucked into another exchange that can only be described as wasting my time - as you clearly have no intention of learning anything or being objective - and only wish to make up spurious excuses to justify your anti-immigration stance.



No.

Just the opposite in fact.

We need to radically increase immigration to rapidly grow the economy, reduce the deficit, and increase the net financial benefit to UK public finances.

we have over 8 million immigrants and still having to borrow each and every day to support them.
If immigration helped the public finances we ought to have a massive surplus by now :


There is absolutely no correlation between a larger GDP and a lower state deficit or a lower foreign trade deficit (indeed the opposite).
There is no correlation between larger GDP and higher per capita GDP.
There is no correlation between higher population and better housing conditions, better acccess to helath care, better transport, lower polution or indeed any positive except more cafes and nailbars.

You continue to ignore the costs of correcting the huge infrastructure backlog caused by population increase.


our tade balance is aweful as every increase in population increases imports but has no impact on exports : further devaluation is inevitable unless the trade balance as is increased borrowing and growing defict is foreign assets and dividend flows.

You solution for everything is simply to borrow, borrow , borrow.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

CLAPTON wrote: »

we have over 8 million immigrants and still having to borrow each and every day to support them.

Well first of all the 8m immigrants statement is a red herring. There are not 8m EU migrants.

This conversation is about EU immigrants - and the evidence shows they pay in more than they take out by quite some margin.

We are not having to borrow to support EU migrants - they subsidise the native born.

We do of course have to borrow to support the native born - as they take out more than they pay in.

We also have to borrow to support non-EU migrants - you know, the ones we can pick and choose, we're just terrible at doing so - as they also take out more than they pay in. Albeit they are more fiscally beneficial than the native born.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well first of all the 8m immigrants statement is a red herring. There are not 8m EU migrants.

This conversation is about EU immigrants - and the evidence shows they pay in more than they take out by quite some margin.

We are not having to borrow to support EU migrants - they subsidise the native born.

We do of course have to borrow to support the native born - as they take out more than they pay in.

We also have to borrow to support non-EU migrants - you know, the ones we can pick and choose, we're just terrible at doing so - as they also take out more than they pay in. Albeit they are more fiscally beneficial than the native born.

the figures that show a miniscule positive benefit on government finances ignore
-all infrastructure costs
-impact of imports and so on the pound, our net assets and future dividend flows
-negative effect on peoples housing, transport, access to NHS etc.
-the assumption that young europeans will never age, have children, draw a pension, get sick, want to live in a family sized house, use public transport etc.

there is no general correletion of the size of the GDP figures and people's quality of life

as a matter of interest, how many 10s of thousand of highly paid, export creating job vacancies are there currently in Aberdeen?

Conrad

Stats on the contribution of immigrants are meaningless, they fail to capture reality and are about as reliable as Economists forecasts 9often compiled by out of touch luvvie academics - utterly clueless). In the real world people see what goes on and how masses of migrants manage to afford supposedly unaffordable London property, despite them supposedly 'doing all the low paid jobs Brits wont do' (lol) - and whilst some house share, many do not, they are supported by the state, many also have hidden cash earnings and plenty are on the fiddle (in my work town here people keep mentioning they are seeing more and more migrants hanging round the offy all day, not working but with I-phones, plenty for booze, nice clothes etc


Most tenant enquiries I see from migrants are supported by housing benefit (plus tax credits etc)


We could not get a GP appointment (without a considerable battle) for our very ill relative recently despite him never ever using health services.


I'd like to be naïve and out of touch, I'd feel better about things


The majority of people want a big cut in immigration and a sensible system so we can plan

michaels

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

On a related note - it's also been reported today that the private sector pensions shortfall increased by £90 billion in the 24 hours after Brexit due to currency devaluation.

Can you explain this number. Liabilities are presumably to pay pensions in GBP and the other factor impacting will be longevity - I assume the Brexit vote did not lead to a jump in expectations?

Assets are either in GBP so the devaluation has no impact or other currencies in which case the devaluation should be positive (my funds certainly all jumped in GBP value that day).

So unless for some reason the average pension fund had some exotic investment in gbp futures then the impact of the GBP devaluation would like have been neutral or beneficial?

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Stats on the contribution of immigrants are meaningless, they fail to capture reality and are about as reliable as Economists forecasts 9often compiled by out of touch luvvie academics - utterly clueless). In the real world people see what goes on and how masses of migrants manage to afford supposedly unaffordable London property,

The problem with real world anecdotal data is that it shows a very narrow picture. What you see may not be what anyone else sees.

Most tenant enquiries I see from migrants are supported by housing benefit (plus tax credits etc)

Indeed, there are some wealthy migrants, some poor migrants. Just like locals.

We could not get a GP appointment (without a considerable battle) for our very ill relative recently despite him never ever using health services.

And is that because of migrants or because the NHS is criminally mis-managed?

The majority of people want a big cut in immigration and a sensible system so we can plan

Source?

A large majority of people have completely misjudged the scale of the migrant "problem" by something like 3 fold. That some people see it is a problem doesn't mean it is actually a problem.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

The majority of people want a big cut in immigration and a sensible system so we can plan

The majority of people also radically over-estimate immigration numbers.

Only 5% of the UK population are from the EU.

When the British public were asked to estimate this figure, the average response was 15%, three times the actual figure.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The majority of people also radically over-estimate immigration numbers.

Only 5% of the UK population are from the EU.

When the British public were asked to estimate this figure, the average response was 15%, three times the actual figure.

interesting to note that only 0.2 % of the EU is made up of people from the UK; most living off UK pensions

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

interesting to note that only 0.2 % of the EU is made up of people from the UK; most living off UK pensions

That's hardly a surprise; the EU is a big place. What do you make of people getting the immigrant numbers so wildly wrong?