The 2017 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

Conrad

People are misjudging the French as they misjudged Brexit and Trump.

Le Oen is the change candidate with lots of left wing policy mixed with right wing cultural protection and putting France first. A lot of people form the leftc will back her over Fillon, the new Thatcher.

I do recommend people think outside the box a bit, it's too easy to swallow the bubble consensus, have we not learned our lesson yet?

Newsnight last night had a specialist on explaining the polls did actually predict Brexit but the liberal media consensus bubble filtered out fact and instead attended only to information that agreed with thier world view.

It's liberating to think beyond the consensus, try it folks

davomcdave

Conrad wrote: »

People are misjudging the French as they misjudged Brexit and Trump.

Le Oen is the change candidate with lots of left wing policy mixed with right wing cultural protection and putting France first. A lot of people form the leftc will back her over Fillon, the new Thatcher.

I do recommend people think outside the box a bit, it's too easy to swallow the bubble consensus, have we not learned our lesson yet?

Newsnight last night had a specialist on explaining the polls did actually predict Brexit but the liberal media consensus bubble filtered out fact and instead attended only to information that agreed with thier world view.

It's liberating to think beyond the consensus, try it folks

Isn't this meant to be a thread where we predict lots of different things rather than just the result of a single election? What are your other predictions?

I don't see Le Pen winning the election. She isn't a change candidate at all, she promises more sucking up to the CGT just like everyone since de Gaulle plus being mean to les Arabes just like everyone including de Gaulle.

I think your friends in Holland have a decent chance of winning but not in France. People want change.

kabayiri

We all know how politics works these days.

First they float a particular theme into the public media space, by giving it an identifiable tag.

Then they build on this theme by attaching kudos from a range of experts. Soften us all up.

There are only 2 sticky issues re: Brexit.

a) Market access
b) FoM

I predict that on the first, they will start to talk about a new proposed form of access, which embraces the UK's "unique position" (sic). Of course we will have to pay for access, possibly what we pay now.

I predict that on the second (b) there will be talk about modifying FoM to link it closer to work. People will have to provide evidence of a job to go to, up front, before they can move. This will be EU wide discussion, not just UK.

Finally, they will spot a long grass opportunity, and time limit any current deal - with a review in 5 or 10 years time.

If the EU/UK could make big progress on Brexit this year it would send out a positive message globally. Otherwise, matters EU could risk being sidelined by Phenomenon Trump.

theEnd

Will be amazed if GDP ends the year higher than now, although I expected a recession by now.

With many companies unsure of their future in the UK, they'll at least slow down planned investments.

House prices should follow. The high end is already falling.

GDB2222

I don't know about the rest of the UK, but in my part of suburban London rents have dropped around 10% over the last six months. I just thought I would mention it as it is so at odds with the predictions above.

mayonnaise

Difficult one this year, due to uncertainty over brexit.

Anyway.

Hard brexit scenario (aka cliff edge)

- house prices flat/slightly down (<-2%)
- inflation ticking up steadily, 6-7% YoY by end of the year.
- unemployment up to around 7%
- GDP flat in H1, slightly negative H2.
- on MSE forums, all the above will be blamed on unpatriotic remoaners or we will be told it 'was going to happen anyway'.
- disenfranchised, under-educated, unemployable brexit voters will still be under-educated, unemployable and disenfranchised.
- Trump impeached for grabbing !!!!! in the Oval Office.
- Queen abdicates and Wills takes over.
- Max Verstappen F1 2017 champion.

System

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Posters on here to start joining the HPC website...too late of course.........:rotfl:

We should have joined it 10 years ago when prices were lower.

Crashy_Time

davomcdave wrote: »

Isn't this meant to be a thread where we predict lots of different things rather than just the result of a single election? What are your other predictions?

I don't see Le Pen winning the election. She isn't a change candidate at all, she promises more sucking up to the CGT just like everyone since de Gaulle plus being mean to les Arabes just like everyone including de Gaulle.

I think your friends in Holland have a decent chance of winning but not in France. People want change.

? She is talking about a "new national currency"? That would be change, big change.

Crashy_Time

Joeskeppi wrote: »

We should have joined it 10 years ago when prices were lower.

Thought most of you did....until you got banned....:rotfl:

Crashy_Time

GDB2222 wrote: »

I don't know about the rest of the UK, but in my part of suburban London rents have dropped around 10% over the last six months. I just thought I would mention it as it is so at odds with the predictions above.

Shhhhh...don`t burst their little bubble, they don`t like "real world" evidence on here, disturbs their HPI dreams.