The 2017 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

davomcdave

Can anyone join in? If so, my thoughts are below OP's:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The big global issues for the next few years will certainly include Brexit and Trump on an alarmingly regular basis - but this year may be too soon for either - It will take Trump some time to do any real damage and the worst excesses of Brexit may yet be avoided if May can negotiate a good deal around single market access.

I think it's too early for Brexit to have much of an impact Britain hasn't even put in notice yet. I think we'll see the first economic effects as imports start to fall and investment falls. I agree regarding Trump although he might want to start the Presidency with an eye-catching policy announcement which makes my heart sink...

So with the caveat that 2017 is likely to be less predictable than most years we'll give it a go anyway.

As for the predictions...

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +1 to +5%. This is a slower rate of growth than last year.
No opinion on house prices (is that allowed?)

2. FTB numbers will fall due to Brexit induced job market uncertainty and disposable income being squeezed by inflation.
First Time Buyers replace Buy to Letters in the Market, maybe at lower prices though.

3. Inflation will rise significantly because of the Brexitary GBP devaluation - I expect a range between 1.5% and 3% for most of the year.
I see inflation rising steadily throughout the year, pretty much in a straight line to 4-5% by the end of the year on the back of a lower pound and higher oil prices.

4. The big falls in unemployment we've seen recently will slow and may even start to reverse - likewise the picture for real terms wage growth is much gloomier thanks to increasing inflation. Best guess is a slight rise in unemployment and falls in real terms wages.
Unemployment stabilises at current lows and employment at current highs. That is a pretty good problem to have!

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%.
Base rates to rise this year

6. House building will not increase at anywhere near the rates the government has promised or the country needs to alleviate the housing crisis. If the government does not reverse the punitive BTL taxes that act as a discouragement to investment it will fall.
House building will increase due to government subsidies although that might not feed through until 2018.

7. Rents will continue to increase and reach another new record high.
I agree. The attack on buy to let should increase rents charged by the landlords that remain when the dust settles

8. The gap between London/SE and the rest of the UK will continue to close as it did in 2016.
I agree

9. Aberdeen house prices will continue to soften a bit as they have done over the last year. The falls in Aberdeen rents are already starting to ease and should level off towards year end.
I have no idea.

10. Economic growth will slow with GDP under 2.0% for the year
Investment looks set to fall a lot in 2017 however that will be offset by falling imports I think. How those competing things add up to GDP growth will be complicated but falling GDP by the end of 2017 is possible.

Politics:

11. If the government indicate a soft/sensible Brexit (staying in single market) and/or long term transitional deal is being targeted then the worst economic consequences of Brexit to the UK will largely be avoided. And a second Scottish Indyref will be off the table.
I think that there will be little if any progress on Brexit apart from A50 going through. Britain has to negotiate with 27 politicians almost none of whom have any political benefit to be gained domestically in the negotiations. Why would the Greek PM or Portuguese PM give a damn about Brexit negotiations?

Do Scots even want another referendum so soon?

12. If the government indicate a hard/chaotic Brexit is being pursued then the SNP will call for Scottish Indyref 2 - and win it.
Brexit will get nowhere in 2017 I reckon.

13. The UK Labour party will end the year with a different leader. (perhaps a bit of an outlier but we can live in hope!)
Corbyn will be running Labour on 31/12/17 if he's still alive.

14. DAESH will continue trying to destabilise the West with additional terrorist attacks and attempting to start the race/religion war they so desperately want - aided and abetted by the European/UK right-wing groups that are the other side of the same coin..... Hopefully they will fail.... and decency, reason and humanity will win out over despair, hatred and division... But 2016 has taught us that cannot be guaranteed.
As they lose more ground in Iraq I think they'll try more attacks like Berlin/Paris but while they are pretty horrible their impact is quite limited except maybe giving fuel to the NF fire.

15. And finally the European elections - Peak Populism will pass soon enough - hopefully it's this year and we can avoid any more pointless disruption from extremists like Le Pen getting elected - but lets not count our chickens just yet..... :beer:
Le Pen won't win in France I don't think although she will get to the final round where the rest will rally behind the other candidate. I could see the PVV winning in Holland which would make Wilders PM.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Aberdeen to crash harder


Wood Green to start crashing


Crashy Time`s rent to stay roughly the same as it has been for years


Posters on here to start joining the HPC website...too late of course.........:rotfl:

Your house price predictions for 14-15 and 15-16 where proven to be totally wrong. You've been proven wrong on the HPC site for years too.

You might just be the most deluded poster on this forum.

Crashy_Time

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

Your house price predictions for 14-15 and 15-16 where proven to be totally wrong. You've been proven wrong on the HPC site for years too.

You might just be the most deluded poster on this forum.[/QUOTE]


And that would be quite an achievement wouldn`t it Acorn ? :rotfl:The Price Police are up early today, I`m calling Crash.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

Your house price predictions for 14-15 and 15-16 where proven to be totally wrong. You've been proven wrong on the HPC site for years too.

You might just be the most deluded poster on this forum.[/QUOTE]


And that would be quite an achievement wouldn`t it Acorn ? :rotfl:The Price Police are up early today, I`m calling Crash.

Its true though Crashy. But you best comment on the time of my post. To face reality would be just horrific. :eek:

Crashy_Time

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Its true though Crashy. But you best comment on the time of my post. To face reality would be just horrific. :eek:

Reality is what you make it, from the power of the present moment, the bankers financial model is pretty redundant at that level of thinking, but I find it sad that you think reality without mortgage obligation is "horrific", have you ever considered counselling or just stepping back from your belief system and taking stock?

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

Reality is what you make it, from the power of the present moment, the bankers financial model is pretty redundant at that level of thinking, but I find it sad that you think reality without mortgage obligation is "horrific", have you ever considered counselling or just stepping back from your belief system and taking stock?

I don't care about the bankers financial model. I care about owning my own home not to mention paying hundreds of pounds less than the equivalent rent per month. What is horrific to me is the idea of living a lonely existence in a HMO or studio flat just to save £50 pcm. But each to there own. You seem very happy and not at all bitter or envious

Herzlos

Agreed with Jack - lots of us view mortgages as stability and cheaper rent, rather than an investment opportunity (beyond the fact that at some point we'll stop having to pay it).

Masomnia wrote: »

Agree with most of it, except I don't think there will be significant falls in FTB numbers, I don't think wage levels are particularly a barrier.

Banks look to have gotten much stricter on affordability now than a few years ago (I don't seem to be able to get the same mortgage level as 2007 [admittedly when they were throwing money at people - I got a 90% LTV mortgage at 5x salary], on double the salary). So a squeeze on finances caused by any uncertainty, it may be a lot harder to hit that affordability criteria or even get a deposit together.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

A wild card, but I could see the full Brexit trade deal being wrapped up in 2017!!

Only under terms that'll cause you to set fire to your keyboard :j

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Herzlos wrote: »

Only under terms that'll cause you to set fire to your keyboard :j

For the PM that would have to be a tempting prospect.

Brexit at the moment is taking up 100% of civil service resources and the chance of them being able to get any other meaningful business through this parliament is next to zero.

Go for a long term EEA transitional deal - get out of 'the EU' quickly - announce 'mission accomplished' to the population - avoid the war on a second front of Scottish Indyref 2 that will happen without EEA....

And then get on with the 1000's of other urgent things in government that cannot even be looked at seriously while the Brexit battles drag on.

It would buy a decade or more of time to negotiate a proper deal with the EU instead of having to rush something through in 24 months that just can't be done without real pain to business and people's living standards.

The only downside is having to keep the Brextremists in her own party from mounting an internal civil war type situation - but given the 'three Brexiteers' are now in charge of Brexit and already wavering now they've seen first hand the challenges being faced - that might be easier than initially thought.

davomcdave

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It would buy a decade or more of time to negotiate a proper deal with the EU instead of having to rush something through in 24 months that just can't be done without real pain to business and people's living standards.

I agree but in addition to that there are 27 other Governments that need to spend vast amounts of time and political capital discussing and agreeing the terms of Brexit in return for....nothing in most cases.

As a result I think the only possible outcome of Brexit is neither hard or soft Brexit but train wreck Brexit. Brexit with nothing agreed and nobody having a real idea about anything except for Britain no longer being in the EU.

All it takes is one of the 27 not to like a single part of the terms of the Brexit agreement for them to rip the agreement up. There is no way at all that 27 Governments will agree every part of Brexit. Never in a thousand years let alone two.

That's all off topic though as Brexit won't fail to be agreed in good time in 2017. That's for 2019.