The 2017 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

That's hardly a surprise; the EU is a big place. What do you make of people getting the immigrant numbers so wildly wrong?

I would expect the majority of people to get a great number of things wrong
-what the size of the trade deficit?
-what the backlog of houses needed?
-what the budget deficit?
-how many people go to Uni in the UK?
-how many people take part in sport?

etc etc

the issue is that 8 million people in a relatively small island make a huge difference to the availability of housing, access to transport, access to NHS etc.

Maybe they should have asked what proportion of London were foreigners : if people underestimated would you be here wondered why they got it wrong?

BobQ

CLAPTON wrote: »

interesting to note that only 0.2 % of the EU is made up of people from the UK; most living off UK pensions

That is misleading.

11.7% of people in France are foreign born
12.8% in Germany
13.4% in Spain
11,6% in Netherlands
13.9% in Norway
8.9% in Italy

The UK at 12.3% is hardly out of line with the others and UK has no worse an immigrant concentration than most EU members despite the way it is presented by the anti-immigration brigade.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-born_population

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

That is misleading.

11.7% of people in France are foreign born
12.8% in Germany
13.4% in Spain
11,6% in Netherlands
13.9% in Norway
8.9% in Italy

The UK at 12.3% is hardly out of line with the others and UK has no worse an immigrant concentration than most EU members despite the way it is presented by the anti-immigration brigade.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-born_population

how is that relevant to a discussion about people's perceptuion about the number of EU migrants to the UK?

Originally Posted by HAMISH_MCTAVISH View Post
The majority of people also radically over-estimate immigration numbers.

Only 5% of the UK population are from the EU.

When the British public were asked to estimate this figure, the average response was 15%, three times the actual figure.

vivatifosi

michaels wrote: »

Can you explain this number. Liabilities are presumably to pay pensions in GBP and the other factor impacting will be longevity - I assume the Brexit vote did not lead to a jump in expectations?

Assets are either in GBP so the devaluation has no impact or other currencies in which case the devaluation should be positive (my funds certainly all jumped in GBP value that day).

So unless for some reason the average pension fund had some exotic investment in gbp futures then the impact of the GBP devaluation would like have been neutral or beneficial?

The period after brexit was horrible in pensions land. Lots of uncertainty coupled with an inflationary outlook did not make for a pretty picture. For some time it had been hard to get decent returns from the more stable asset classes.

Things have picked up a fair bit since though, largely due to rises in the equity market. LDI funds did pretty well post Brexit too. Though they are expensive now, it was good if already invested.

BobQ

CLAPTON wrote: »

how is that relevant to a discussion about people's perceptuion about the number of EU migrants to the UK?

A significant number of people believe that we are being inundated by immigrants and it was an argument frequently advanced in the referendum campaign.

In reality the numbers of immigrants into the UK from other EU nations is similar in proportional terms to the numbers of EU nationals living in many comparable EU nations.

In short people who perceive the numbers to be higher in the UK than elsewhere are wrong.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

A significant number of people believe that we are being inundated by immigrants and it was an argument frequently advanced in the referendum campaign.

In reality the numbers of immigrants into the UK from other EU nations is similar in proportional terms to the numbers of EU nationals living in many comparable EU nations.

In short people who perceive the numbers to be higher in the UK than elsewhere are wrong.

I'm sure you are correct in saying a significant number of people are wrong about many, many things.
However the discussion was about the number of EU nationals living in the Uk.

Although not the original discussion, I think it would be fair to say that London is inundated with foreigners : wouldn't you agree?

michaels

vivatifosi wrote: »

The period after brexit was horrible in pensions land. Lots of uncertainty coupled with an inflationary outlook did not make for a pretty picture. For some time it had been hard to get decent returns from the more stable asset classes.

Things have picked up a fair bit since though, largely due to rises in the equity market. LDI funds did pretty well post Brexit too. Though they are expensive now, it was good if already invested.

So basically lower real interest rate projections made db more expensive?

Interesting what that says about pension fund health vs economic health. For those with dc lower real interest rates transfer money from savers to earners (old to young?) but db interferes with this wealth transfer process.

BobQ

CLAPTON wrote: »

I'm sure you are correct in saying a significant number of people are wrong about many, many things.
However the discussion was about the number of EU nationals living in the Uk.

Although not the original discussion, I think it would be fair to say that London is inundated with foreigners : wouldn't you agree?

I rarely go there, but accepting what you say, the same can be said about other major European capital cities which is the point that I was making. I accept that this of itself does not address the concerns in the UK but I think people need to accept that the ease of global population movements makes the notion of a purely indigenous British nation a thing of the past. Indeed most foreign born residents of the UK come from outside the EU.

davomcdave

michaels wrote: »

So basically lower real interest rate projections made db more expensive?

Interesting what that says about pension fund health vs economic health. For those with dc lower real interest rates transfer money from savers to earners (old to young?) but db interferes with this wealth transfer process.

For private sector workers who don't have indexation built in to pensions then it's nominal not real rates that count I would think.

For most public sector workers it doesn't matter because the entire pension is unfunded. All those nurses, warmongers (is that a job?) and classroom assistants that Blair took on will be costing our kids to provide pensions.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

I rarely go there, but accepting what you say, the same can be said about other major European capital cities which is the point that I was making. I accept that this of itself does not address the concerns in the UK but I think people need to accept that the ease of global population movements makes the notion of a purely indigenous British nation a thing of the past. Indeed most foreign born residents of the UK come from outside the EU.

I think we ought to do what is best for the people of the UK.
The facts that other countries in the world have different policies is indeed interesting, but doesn't mean we should follow their example.