How much can house prices keep rising ?

AFF8879

Crashy_Time wrote: »

So in the internet age a client "relationship" or "contact" only has validity if the networker lives in London? Interesting......:cool:

Obviously the client relationship can be maintained from anywhere, my point is that the bankers who hold these relationships are going to take them with them if they are forced to leave their firm due to their job being moved to another country they don't want to relocate to.

Crashy_Time

AFF8879 wrote: »

Obviously the client relationship can be maintained from anywhere, my point is that the bankers who hold these relationships are going to take them with them if they are forced to leave their firm due to their job being moved to another country they don't want to relocate to.

Why wouldn`t they re-locate to another European country, especially if their big pay packet is waiting? London isn`t the centre of the world, most people are only there because of their job and will go where the money goes? If one big firm goes others will follow, so there won`t be the choice of jumping ship to another company to stay in London, for many it will be move abroad or lose the job. IMO.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

AFF8879 wrote: »

Obviously the client relationship can be maintained from anywhere, my point is that the bankers who hold these relationships are going to take them with them if they are forced to leave their firm due to their job being moved to another country they don't want to relocate to.

AIUI Investment Bankers tend to be quite specialised.

And it's particular specialisations that will be forced to move - Euro clearing desks for example.

Not of course all banking jobs - but fairly large numbers of them.

And all the other firms will also be moving those exact same jobs and specialised functions overseas...

Any individual banker may of course be able to stay in London and get another job in a different function - but then his current specialised client relationships become far less relevant.

Anyway - a few tens of thousands of banking jobs moving overseas from London over a several year period isn't going to crash the UK housing market - PCL may take a bit of a hit though.

westernpromise

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Why wouldn`t they re-locate to another European country, especially if their big pay packet is waiting? London isn`t the centre of the world, most people are only there because of their job and will go where the money goes? If one big firm goes others will follow, so there won`t be the choice of jumping ship to another company to stay in London, for many it will be move abroad or lose the job. IMO.

Because we speak English (apart from in Scotland), have English law, respect property rights, don't do anti-semitism (apart from the Labour Party), have good air links to everywhere and we are in a convenient time zone to do business with Asia or America on the same day.

There is a reason everyone wants to come here you know.

Crashy_Time

westernpromise wrote: »

Because we speak English (apart from in Scotland), have English law, respect property rights, don't do anti-semitism (apart from the Labour Party), have good air links to everywhere and we are in a convenient time zone to do business with Asia or America on the same day.

There is a reason everyone wants to come here you know.

Makes you wonder how Wall St. ever got off the ground...:rotfl:

GreatApe

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Makes you wonder how Wall St. ever got off the ground...:rotfl:

probably pre internet days meant finance was more regional

Thrugelmir

noddynoo wrote: »

US inflation up again today so likely Trumps first rate change will be upwards and we usually follow. Prices falling a bit here but mainly volumes low and nothing shifting Agents will soon need to 'advise' re reduction or they will be toast

The Feds rate change in December. Moved US long term mortgage rates up by around 0.7% to over 4%. We don't know how lucky we are on this side of the pound.

GreatApe

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Why wouldn`t they re-locate to another European country, especially if their big pay packet is waiting? London isn`t the centre of the world, most people are only there because of their job and will go where the money goes? If one big firm goes others will follow, so there won`t be the choice of jumping ship to another company to stay in London, for many it will be move abroad or lose the job. IMO.

people are loath to move, a company director with three kids studying in London is hardly going to want to move his 8, 12 and 15 year old to Germany and totally mess up their education in the process. He will do a lot to not move the company.

Even if it happens it wont be fast.

I would be more worried by the pace of software development. That is likely to disrupt many more jobs much more quickly in a very wide area of industry. Good news is London seems to be only second to silicon valley in tech. Should we do a crashy special smiley here? :rotfl:

GreatApe

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The Feds rate change in December. Moved US long term mortgage rates up by around 0.7% to over 4%. We don't know how lucky we are on this side of the pound.

it all balances out, for the UK to move rates up the economy would have to be booming.

Hamish did a graph once showing that as rates went up house prices actually went up contrary to the crash wishers rates are moved up to try and cool a booming market they are not moved up so crashy can finally get his 130% house price crash and break even

GreatApe

Crashy_Time wrote: »

So in the internet age a client "relationship" or "contact" only has validity if the networker lives in London? Interesting......:cool:

well in real life its certainly important to meet face to face. I talk to friends on the phone and on wattsapp but its nothing like meeting for a meal and a drink.