How much can house prices keep rising ?

AndyBSG

Lloyd90 wrote: »

how long before people are totally priced out of the housing market ?

Until supply outstrips demand, which I can't see being anytime in the next decade.

As others have said, comparing prices 25 years ago to prices today doesn't work because wages were also much lower.

I would actually say affording a house today is much easier than in my parents time but attitudes are very different.

My parents had to remain living at my nan's home even after they had married and they REALLY had to scrimp and save. No holidays every year, no nice cars, no restaurant meals or nights out drinking every weekend.

Then when they could afford to buy they had no furniture and it took them years and years to fully furnish their first home.

Nowadays youngsters complain about the price while going to Ibiza for a week every year, driving around in their nice car bought on credit and going out drinking most weekends.

Then when they do buy they usually have the nice big TV, Sky dish, games console, etc within a very short period all of this while pleading poverty at how expensive getting on the property ladder is.

Crashy_Time

westernpromise wrote: »

Pop corn is a good analogy.

You go to the cinema and find they sell

- 250g bags of popcorn for £1 each, or
- 500g bags of popcorn for £5 each.

If you want 500g popcorn, do you buy

a: 2 small bags for a total of £2, or
b: 1 big bag for £5?

George Osborne apparently believed the answer was b.

And look where that got him......

the_flying_pig

AndyBSG wrote: »

...My parents had... no... nights out drinking every weekend.

...

Nowadays youngsters complain about the price while going... out drinking most weekends.
...

there were literally twice as many UK pubs per head in say 1970 than there are in 2016.


1970 - 75k pubs, 55m people;
2016 - 48k pubs, 65m people.


I agree that people probably ate out less then but drank out less, utter piffle.


Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/11283995/The-real-reasons-for-the-tragic-demise-of-the-British-pub-industry.html


the best indicators of how easy it is to buy surely have to include how often people, well, buy, and as we know that number has been falling for well over a decade.

buglawton

padington wrote: »

Down, people in the top stamp duty tax bracket aren't bothering to sel or buy. It's a tight market squeezing prices on modest family homes.

As I said would happen.

You over tax a large box of pop corn so each corn is more expensive than the small box, everyone wants to buy the small box.

Whilst everyone holding a small box, doesn't want to sell, thinking wisely small boxes will be worth more and more because of the sudden extra rarity given the pop corn making machine being so slow and the new customer base increasing so fast.

Especially where the best films are being played.

The latest wheeze for the high net worthers is to buy the neighbouring flat and knock through, thus saving a shedload of stamp duty when upsizing. When will the govt invent equitable taxing?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/buy-to-let/wealthy-families-find-stamp-duty-loophole-to-buy-property-for-ch/
and
https://www.ft.com/content/171f3d18-a05a-11e6-891e-abe238dee8e2

padington

I think osborne knew exactly what he was doing. Mansion prices down gets a cheer. Everything outside central London going up gets another cheer.

All politricks at the disadvantage of a well balanced market place.

Older i get more i think the less politicians should be able to do.

Crashy_Time

padington wrote: »

I think osborne knew exactly what he was doing. Mansion prices down gets a cheer. Everything outside central London going up gets another cheer.

All politricks at the disadvantage of a well balanced market place.

Older i get more i think the less politicians should be able to do.

He forgot to factor in Brexit and Trump though. If Trump gets rates moving up all UK property is going down.

westernpromise

the_flying_pig wrote: »

there were literally twice as many UK pubs per head in say 1970 than there are in 2016.


1970 - 75k pubs, 55m people;
2016 - 48k pubs, 65m people.


I agree that people probably ate out less then but drank out less, utter piffle.


Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/11283995/The-real-reasons-for-the-tragic-demise-of-the-British-pub-industry.html


the best indicators of how easy it is to buy surely have to include how often people, well, buy, and as we know that number has been falling for well over a decade.

There are also 2/3rds fewer petrol stations now than then, so by that reasoning, there must be fewer cars.

This chart shows the actual picture re drinking since 1980:
http://www.ias.org.uk/uploads/fs4-consumption-1%20NEW%20web%20extended.pdf

and notes that "these figures do not take into account the levels of unrecorded alcohol consumed. For instance, the National Audit Office (NAO) estimates that the tax gap for beer duty accounted for up to 14% of the UK market in 2009-2010."
http://www.ias.org.uk/Alcohol-knowledge-centre/Consumption/Factsheets/Total-consumption-in-the-UK.aspx

- in other words, add back in booze cruises and the figures would be the same as at the 2004 peak.

westernpromise

Crashy_Time wrote: »

He forgot to factor in Brexit and Trump though. If Trump gets rates moving up all UK property is going down.

We have the same interest rates in Blackburn as we do in Blackheath, yet prices in Burnley didn't go up when interest rates went down. So why would prices go down if interest rates went up?

westernpromise

buglawton wrote: »

The latest wheeze for the high net worthers is to buy the neighbouring flat and knock through, thus saving a shedload of stamp duty when upsizing.

Yup. Buy two £1 million flats, pay £113k stamp duty. Buy one £2 million flat, pay £153k stamp duty (and that's assuming the extra 3% penalty in the case of one flat in each scenario).

Hmmm, what to do? Completely squander £40k on literally nothing, or pay a builder to knock through?

the_flying_pig

westernpromise wrote: »

There are also 2/3rds fewer petrol stations now than then, so by that reasoning, there must be fewer cars.

This chart shows the actual picture re drinking since 1980:
http://www.ias.org.uk/uploads/fs4-consumption-1%20NEW%20web%20extended.pdf

and notes that "these figures do not take into account the levels of unrecorded alcohol consumed. For instance, the National Audit Office (NAO) estimates that the tax gap for beer duty accounted for up to 14% of the UK market in 2009-2010."
http://www.ias.org.uk/Alcohol-knowledge-centre/Consumption/Factsheets/Total-consumption-in-the-UK.aspx

- in other words, add back in booze cruises and the figures would be the same as at the 2004 peak.

the growth is entirely down to consumption at home. going out to drink [the 'accusation' i was replying to] has got so expensive, smoking & drink drive laws enforced so rigorously etc, that drinking out is a shadow of what it was. that's an exceptionally well accepted fact.


on the other hand, 30-40 years ago, it was hardly a thing at all to have beer at home in the fridge? now it's commonplace.


even in the last few years there's a trend.