are we expecting the pound to drop further?

Ray_Singh-Blue

I just bought back those VWRL I sold 3 weeks ago.

Realised I was actively trading within the passive half of my portfolio, which kind of defeats the point of having a passive allocation.Temporary logic fail, now corrected

economic

Ray_Singh-Blue wrote: »

I just bought back those VWRL I sold 3 weeks ago.

Realised I was actively trading within the passive half of my portfolio, which kind of defeats the point of having a passive allocation.Temporary logic fail, now corrected

did you buy in time for the rally today? or did you miss some/all of it?

i think this is a lesson (intentional or not) that investing should be for the long run and trading is punting. if you believe in a trend then stick to it for the long run.

Ray_Singh-Blue

economic wrote: »

did you buy in time for the rally today? or did you miss some/all of it?

i think this is a lesson (intentional or not) that investing should be for the long run and trading is punting. if you believe in a trend then stick to it for the long run.

As luck would have it I'm just under a thousand pounds less poor as a result of this flutter, but it could have gone the other way and more.

I fully agree with you about making a plan and then staying the course. No excuses, despite having a plan, I had a little rush of blood to the head. All corrected now though.

BrockStoker

I'm not convinced sticking to a plan is always a good thing. Sure, make a plan, and if things pan out the way you envisage, follow it. But markets make unpredictable moves sometimes, so I like to be somewhat flexible.

So far the trades I've made:

31st - Sold some Biotech Growth Trust (a bit late - should have done it a week before, but still made a small profit)
2nd - Sold some Japan Smaller Companies (a couple of days late, but not far of the previous high)
4th - Bought some Polar Capital Biotech (possibly found the bottom)
8th - Bought back some Japan Smaller Companies and topped up Henderson Opportunities (too early to tell, but both seem to be good moves)

That leaves me enough cash for a further two "shots" (about 6% of my portfolio each) if things drop from here. Looks like the markets are pricing in a Clinton win now, so if Trump wins there will probably be further opportunities to buy cheap.

Edit - I was expecting to be able to buy some more Polar Capital Biotech today, but the biotech has been going up, so I had to scupper that plan. That is something I hadn't counted on, but being flexible has likely saved me some money.

Overall I'm quite happy with how things have gone so far, but things could still go pear shaped from here - the worst that could happen is that I get stuck with a little too much cash.

jamesd

economic wrote: »

punting basically. goes against all long term investing / wealth building.

The ten year cylically adjusted price/earnings ratio in many major equity markets is at levels that are correlated with low or in the US negative returns for the next decade or so. Acting on that is not short term gambling, it's paying attention to the long term trends and acting accordingly.

Exchange rate effects are usually a shorter term issue and not on such a sound long term basis as what the PE10 has historically shown in all of the markets where it's been examined.

veryintrigued

Be interesting to see how pound is against the dollar in the next few hours....