are we expecting the pound to drop further?

Glen_Clark

stringer_bell wrote: »

in other news, my portfolio has dropped around 5 percent,

We need to remember its priced in pounds which have risen

stringer_bell

Glen_Clark wrote: »

We need to remember its priced in pounds which have risen

exactly, I was aware of this and debated selling a lot of american funds and keeping cash for a bit, but I didn't.. hindsight is 20/20

bowlhead99

In the last 5 trading days, the S&P is down 2.5% and the dollar is down 2.5% against the GBP. So that's the 5% on a mainstream American fund for a Brit investor.

FTSE100 is only down 3% and FTSE250 down 2%. If your whole portfolio is down 5% you are probably overdependent on the US. But 2% one way or the other every day is quite possible at the moment. Still, easy come easy go, a lot or people will still be up 20% this year.

Pincher

All because Donald Trump might get into the Whitehouse.

Who wants to chip in for a presidential nobbling?

A simple sex scandal won't do it, he already beat it.
We will have to hire a mixed race woman who claims to be his secret daughter that he has been having incest with.

Alas, even that won't stop him.

Ray_Singh-Blue

There have been two unusual conditions:

- major stock indices near all time highs relative to USD
- GBP at long term low to USD

The largest holding in my portfolio is VWRL, and I was getting twitchy back in August (thread) and went on to sell half in October (post #21) at £55.97 per unit

The price is currently £53.53 per unit but I don't yet know if there will be a happy ending. That depends on the price at which I buy back in.

I have set up a limit order to buy back all those VWRL at £50.78 which is 90% of the highest value it reached. However there is a risk my limit order may never be triggered. Run the risk of having to buy in at a higher price one day. While waiting will receive no dividends.

economic

Ray_Singh-Blue wrote: »

There have been two unusual conditions:

- major stock indices near all time highs relative to USD
- GBP at long term low to USD

The largest holding in my portfolio is VWRL, and I was getting twitchy back in August (thread) and went on to sell half in October (post #21) at £55.97 per unit

The price is currently £53.53 per unit but I don't yet know if there will be a happy ending. That depends on the price at which I buy back in.

I have set up a limit order to buy back all those VWRL at £50.78 which is 90% of the highest value it reached. However there is a risk my limit order may never be triggered. Run the risk of having to buy in at a higher price one day. While waiting will receive no dividends.

punting basically. goes against all long term investing / wealth building.

Ray_Singh-Blue

economic wrote: »

punting basically. goes against all long term investing / wealth building.

Is that your position on the active versus passive debate?

I'm undecided. But if I felt like you I would probably allocate investments in proportion to the global invested capital market. Which I think is a consensus of where reward meets risk.

My porfolio might look a little like this:

Global debt securities: 49%
Global cap weighted equity: 40%
Global investible real estate: 7%
Cash equivalents:4%
Commodities: <1%

Or if I wanted to keep things simple:
total stock market 50%
total bond market 50%

Perhaps that would be a very good portfolio indeed and I'm guessing must be what yours looks like, if the practice reflects the preaching. After all, wouldn't anything else be, well- a punt?

economic

Ray_Singh-Blue wrote: »

Is that your position on the active versus passive debate?

I'm undecided. But if I felt like you I would probably allocate investments in proportion to the global invested capital market. Which I think is a consensus of where reward meets risk.

My porfolio might look a little like this:

Global debt securities: 49%
Global cap weighted equity: 40%
Global investible real estate: 7%
Cash equivalents:4%
Commodities: <1%

Or if I wanted to keep things simple:
total stock market 50%
total bond market 50%

Perhaps that would be a very good portfolio indeed and I'm guessing must be what yours looks like, if the practice reflects the preaching. After all, wouldn't anything else be, well- a punt?

agree anything is a punt really. thats just life. we dont know even if stock markets will be higher in 10 or 20 years time then now. people think they do and give the arguments of inflation, but theres no certainty in anything at all. however i am prefering equities over bonds and property at this moment even at these seemingly high levels.

my portfolio looks like this (including my own home as its also an investment):

property equity: 40%
equities (incl pension): 26%
cash: 33%
gold and P2P: rest

people may think i have a lot of cash (specially given my age 33) but i prefer to keep the powder dry for now. my net worth is around 750k.

Ray_Singh-Blue

Economic I don't think we are poles apart in this, and interestingly the composition of our portfolios is very similar.

If you exclude the property equity, you have 43% equities, 57% cash gold and P2P. I now have 40% equities, 60% cash and commodities.

Neither of us seem to like bonds at the moment, which means we have both made an active decision not to simply allocate our investments in line with the global mean. You may have stumbled across my diary type thread of ramblings over the last 2 years.

My strategy is passive at its core, with a few carefully considered punts (I like that word). I had been thinking about making this particular punt for 3 months, but have no view on the likely direction of eitherequity markets or currency exchange rates, Just aware of an unusual opporunity to take a position which would benefit from a reversion to the mean in either or both.

economic

Ray_Singh-Blue wrote: »

Economic I don't think we are poles apart in this, and interestingly the composition of our portfolios is very similar.

If you exclude the property equity, you have 43% equities, 57% cash gold and P2P. I now have 40% equities, 60% cash and commodities.

Neither of us seem to like bonds at the moment, which means we have both made an active decision not to simply allocate our investments in line with the global mean. You may have stumbled across my diary type thread of ramblings over the last 2 years.

My strategy is passive at its core, with a few carefully considered punts (I like that word). I had been thinking about making this particular punt for 3 months, but have no view on the likely direction of eitherequity markets or currency exchange rates, Just aware of an unusual opporunity to take a position which would benefit from a reversion to the mean in either or both.

agree with you totally. i take a strong interest in economics and marekts (i have been in finance for 10 years) and so like to think i know a bit more then the average person of whats going on in the world and therefore know where better to be positioned. that said i would no way have all my eggs in one or two baskets and can definately see the benefits of diversification (i like to sleep at night without worry).

out of interest do you own property or do you chose to exclude it? i think your own home should be part of your portfolio as its effectively an investment. also my view is if i didnt own a property myself i would feel a bit uneasy and exposed to housing as this is a significant cost and owning a home usually saves a lot of money long term then renting.