Expert economists - the appaling record of prediction

Conrad

lisyloo wrote: »

and a great deal of uncertainty which isn't good for investment or any kind of forward planning by government departments, individual households or businesses.

What are your thoughts on the plethora of uncertainties facing the EU?

Conrad

wotsthat wrote: »

You were saying earlier that 68% of people are now up for Brexit. Are they the herd or the contrarians?

In the context of the decades long liberal consensus, they remain the contrarians, well ahead of the lagging liberal Establishment. Goofy Establishment drones are always the last to know when change comes a-calling

Conrad

martinsurrey wrote: »

the book also says exactly NOTHING has happened with regard to Brexit, no trade deals have changed, access to no market has changed, other than a 20% devaluation of the currency, which is starting to come through at the warehouse gate (which means the till is next).

THE BOOK


A reasonable barometer is investment activity, which remains robust. Many corporates choosing to make significant investments implies they have confidence in the UK's prospects.


The money supply has been accelerating, another REAL WORLD indicator of sound underlying economics.


FTSE 250 is riding high - these are real world investors voting with their pockets, again they expect the UK to prosper and profits be made






I'll take the book over modelling and projections.


All comes back to whether you expect UK plc to adapt and thrive or give-up and shrivel.


Even Leavers say things are very uncertain, but I disagree to the extent I am confident we and our European friends will in the end see sense and ensure good trade and relations persist. Not blind optimism, just common sense.

CLAPTON

martinsurrey wrote: »

Yes, and people/firms/governments live/manage uncertainty by delaying long term activities, long term activities are responsible for a lot of economic growth and job creation.

"Should we build a new plant now or wait until some of the uncertainty has crystallized?"

uncertainty is certain.

how would you suppose we should overcome the ucertainty caused by Trump in the USA, oil prices, political leadership of France and Germany and other EU states, Chinese aggression in the S China sea, Putins war mongering, population growth, climate change etc....

I do agree we should have invoked article 50 already so shortening one small element of uncertainty

Conrad

Glad the 'expert' economists are finally cottoning on;


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors


'The Bank of England’s chief economist has admitted his profession is in crisis having failed to foresee the 2008 financial crash and having misjudged the impact of the Brexit vote'.


'Andrew Haldane, said it was “a fair cop” referring to a series of forecasting errors before and after the financial crash which had brought the profession’s reputation into question'.

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

Glad the 'expert' economists are finally cottoning on;


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/05/chief-economist-of-bank-of-england-admits-errors


'The Bank of England’s chief economist has admitted his profession is in crisis having failed to foresee the 2008 financial crash and having misjudged the impact of the Brexit vote'.


'Andrew Haldane, said it was “a fair cop” referring to a series of forecasting errors before and after the financial crash which had brought the profession’s reputation into question'.

Maybe he's still wrong? How can you be sure?

Conrad

wotsthat wrote: »

Maybe he's still wrong? How can you be sure?

This time he's right to say Economists need a re-think - lots of us have been telling them this for years.


A study of past big ticket economists predictions reveals all you need to know - they are almost always wrong.


Economists are terrible at spotting innovation and shifts that affect economic outcomes.


They are too reliant on charts and data, and not interested enough in coal face reality and subtlety.


Brexit - their key error is not allowing for the vast opportunity upside ahead of us. They assume for example EU / UK trade will be disrupted, but commone sense and a clear head would suggest disruption is ill affordable for the lumbering EU, and would upset their whole economic stability on so many fronts which in turn means less available in contributions from France et al

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

Maybe he's still wrong? How can you be sure?

you're well lucky having such a clear and infalible economic compass
basically it goes

-all bad news about the UK is true
-all bad forecasts about the UK are true
-all 'good' news about the UK is only temporary and the bad news will shortly follow
-any general news showing the UK in a bad light is true and greeted with glee.
- anyone with a moral compass is obviously either lying or a hypocrite they don't show the holy EU is a good light or shows the UK in a good light.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

you're well lucky having such a clear and infalible economic compass
basically it goes

-all bad news about the UK is true
-all bad forecasts about the UK are true
-all 'good' news about the UK is only temporary and the bad news will shortly follow
-any general news showing the UK in a bad light is true and greeted with glee.
- anyone with a moral compass is obviously either lying or a hypocrite they don't show the holy EU is a good light or shows the UK in a good light.

You're lying. Please stop it.

Conrad

CLAPTON wrote: »

-all bad news about the UK is true
-all bad forecasts about the UK are true
-all 'good' news about the UK is only temporary and the bad news will shortly follow
-any general news showing the UK in a bad light is true and greeted with glee.
- anyone with a moral compass is obviously either lying or a hypocrite they don't show the holy EU is a good light or shows the UK in a good light.

BBC Business Breakfast briefing on Tuesday morning headlined with the presenter asking in a cheerful matter of fact manner whether the EU would at long last see some welcome inflation increase and hit it's 2% inflation target.




Appalling corruption and post-truth 'news' in action. If this was a UK inflation rising story, the delivery would have been grave, portentous and linking it all to Brexit 'worries about price rises'