Expert economists - the appaling record of prediction

Conrad

Just a few examples I've gathered that demonstrate the appalling predictive record of economists and social scientists (and those using their works);




2007 – the consensus amongst Economist was that it would be plain sailing. The global financial crash came in 2008.


In 2008 as oil surged to $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200 p barrel; a few months later it plunged to $30.


From the most widely used Economics textbook of the 1960’s ‘Economics: An Introductory Analysis’ by Economist Paul Samuelson – told us the USSR would overtake the US in economic power by 1997. By 1997 the USSR did not exist


1988 Clyde Pestowitz wrote the book ‘Trading Places’ which was an account of the coming Japanese dominance. He totally failed to spot China, not giving it a mention.


Alvin Toffler in 1970 wrote a best seller that warned of ‘Future Shock’, that the Human brain would not cope with the pace of change. By 1979 he told us global riots would have bought civilisation to a standstill.


Paul Ehrlich – The End Of Affluence – 1974 – ‘the age of scarcity has arrived’. ‘We are facing the disintegration of nation states……..by the year 2000 the UK will be a group of impoverished islands’. ‘This global new dark age may well see the end of civilisation’.


1967 – William and Paul Paddock – published ‘Famine 1975’ which predicted global famines


1968 Paul Borlaug – the father of the green revolution warned of the impending doom and global famine just around the corner


Knight – Riddle Newspaper chain 1974 ran a 4 part series on the end of civilisation. ‘a host of powerful forces has come together to shake the very foundations of civilisation’


Richard Faulk – Princeton University in ‘This Endangered Planet’ – wrote ‘people will increasingly doubt whether life is worth living, the 1990’s will witness the era of catastrophe and the 21st Century would be the era of annihilation’


Desmond King-Hele, the British scientist writer in ‘The End Of The Twentieth Century’ wrote – ‘has man a future? Probably not – or at the least disastrous’


Valery Giscard d’Estaing, the French President wrote ‘the 4 horsemen of the Apocalypse had arrived’


International Panel chaired by Willy Brandt (former German Chancellor )told us - ‘the 1980’s would witness greater tragedies than the 1930’s
Late 1970s – Jimmy Carter gathered the renowned Economists of the age and concluded that peak oil was about to be reached, informing the people in his state of the nation address’s. After this oil promptly fell and stayed cheap for 2 decades.

Thrugelmir

So what Conrad. I've worked with organisation where cashflow forecasts are prepared daily. Such are the variables involved. By the time someone has prepared an economic forecast there's a good chance the data is already out of date. Try steering an oil tanker. Takes six miles to come to a halt.

Conrad

This is not to say experts have no place, of course they do, especially genuine experts such as Surgeons, chemists and engineers.

Conrad

Thrugelmir wrote: »

So what Conrad. I've worked with organisation where cashflow forecasts are prepared daily. Such are the variables involved. By the time someone has prepared an economic forecast there's a good chance the data is already out of date. Try steering an oil tanker. Takes six miles to come to a halt.

That's why we must treat current 'expert' economic predictions with at the very least, great scepticism.


Never forget the years Gillian Tett and Will Hutton spent telling us the UK would 'definitely' be bumping along the bottom until 2025

CLAPTON

Thrugelmir wrote: »

So what Conrad. I've worked with organisation where cashflow forecasts are prepared daily. Such are the variables involved. By the time someone has prepared an economic forecast there's a good chance the data is already out of date. Try steering an oil tanker. Takes six miles to come to a halt.

most tankers arrive at the correct destinations within amasingly close tolerances

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

most tankers arrive at the correct destinations within amasingly close tolerances

You do realise the locations of ports are known and well mapped?

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

You do realise the locations of ports are known and well mapped?

although your point is irrelevant to the difficulty or otherwise of steering a tanker, I assume you are agreeing that the £66bn figures being quoted for post brexit losses, is nonsense.

cells

confirmation bias

the world is a big place you will find someone predicting everything from one to one-thousand so post event you can go back and find someone with the right answer and someone with the wrong answer

Overall the future is bright for the next 20 years however the 20 years after that point is unknown as we may be entering the time of artificial intelligence and things go go very well or very badly once that arrives.

Your brexit is going to be wonderful posts are as silly as the brexit is going to be horrific. The Truth is we are all arguing about something along the lines of plus/minus 3% over the next decade and maybe plus/minus 5% over the next two decades. Both will be lost in the fog of time.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

although your point is irrelevant to the difficulty or otherwise of steering a tanker, I assume you are agreeing that the £66bn figures being quoted for post brexit losses, is nonsense.

Although your point is irrelevant to ascertaining the skills or otherwise of economic forecasters I believe the economic losses due to Brexit won't be £66bn.

Like you I'm guaranteed to be correct.

Even if the figure turned out to be vaguely correct we all know how it works - 'oh, it might be bad but it would've been much worse had we stayed in the EU'.

This is just another confirmation bias thread.

Thrugelmir

Conrad wrote: »

That's why we must treat current 'expert' economic predictions with at the very least, great scepticism.

If you read the full reports. Then they do contain caveats etc. Too much media is based on 200 words of headline. Personally I think Carney (and the BOE) is astute. They are looking down the road far further than we can, and already trying to line up to avoid the potholes. Brexit has merely brought matters to a head. Something would have done. As there's still major issues with the UK economy. No one ever said the solutions would be easy and painless.

cogito

If you laid a million economists end to end, they'd never reach a conclusion......