Expert economists - the appaling record of prediction

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

of course they are not :
first you are wrong as usual in saying that they claim everything will be great and secondly sensible people maintain a balanced views of the issues.

They certainly seem to think everything will be rosy..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/authors/patrick-minford/

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

They certainly seem to think everything will be rosy..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/authors/patrick-minford/

Minford certainly rejects the current biased current 'remain ' narrative : presumably you read the very interesting paper by Kristen Forbes I posted up yesterday.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

Minford certainly rejects the current biased current 'remain ' narrative : presumably you read the very interesting paper by Kristen Forbes I posted up yesterday.

No I missed it. Wild guess though - she argues that current economic forecasts might be too pessimistic?

Seems we have to choose our experts carefully although it's very human to give those confirming our biases more credence.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

No I missed it. Wild guess though - she argues that current economic forecasts might be too pessimistic?

Seems we have to choose our experts carefully although it's very human to give those confirming our biases more credence.

it probably is best for you to read only the 'right' views.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2016/speech942.pdf

Conrad

wotsthat wrote: »

The group 'Economists for Brexit' are saying everything is going to be great on just about every measure.

Those economists are all right aren't they?

Throughout modern times, there comes a point where the herd are wrong and the insurgent contrarians are on the cutting edge. This is one of those times. You see this dynamic appearing through the history of science and Human endeavour - most every new major chapter was initially rejected by the establishment, from Harrisons watch solving Longitude to radar.

martinsurrey

Conrad wrote: »

Martin the point is economists belong to a branch of sub experts, it's not called the dismal science without reason.

some people call economics the dismal science and some people call brexiteers racists, doesnt mean either its true or relevant though.

Conrad wrote: »

The current stable of predictions are based on pure guesswork inputs, that err on the side of pessimism.

I agree

Conrad wrote: »

Let's stick to the book rather than the crystal ball. The book says the economy is doing good, and massive corporations agree as they continue to invest.

the book also says exactly NOTHING has happened with regard to Brexit, no trade deals have changed, access to no market has changed, other than a 20% devaluation of the currency, which is starting to come through at the warehouse gate (which means the till is next).

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

Throughout modern times, there comes a point where the herd are wrong and the insurgent contrarians are on the cutting edge. This is one of those times. You see this dynamic appearing through the history of science and Human endeavour - most every new major chapter was initially rejected by the establishment, from Harrisons watch solving Longitude to radar.

You were saying earlier that 68% of people are now up for Brexit. Are they the herd or the contrarians?

lisyloo

the book also says exactly NOTHING has happened with regard to Brexit, no trade deals have changed, access to no market has changed, other than a 20% devaluation of the currency, which is starting to come through at the warehouse gate (which means the till is next).

and a great deal of uncertainty which isn't good for investment or any kind of forward planning by government departments, individual households or businesses.

CLAPTON

lisyloo wrote: »

and a great deal of uncertainty which isn't good for investment or any kind of forward planning by government departments, individual households or businesses.

there is always uncertainty

does brexit create more uncertainty than Trump in the USA or the new deal on restricting oil supplies or the French/German elections in a few months time or Russian work mongering ......

uncertainty is simply part of life that we have to live with.

martinsurrey

CLAPTON wrote: »

does brexit create more uncertainty than Trump in the USA or the new deal on restricting oil supplies or the French/German elections in a few months time or Russian work mongering ......

uncertainty is simply part of life that we have to live with.

Yes, and people/firms/governments live/manage uncertainty by delaying long term activities, long term activities are responsible for a lot of economic growth and job creation.

"Should we build a new plant now or wait until some of the uncertainty has crystallized?"