Northern Rock - Shares [Merged Threads]

cheerfulcat

steve-o, you'd be far, far better off on the Motley Fool for this sort of stuff. Have a look at the Northern Rock board, and at this thread in Pauly Pilot's Pub, for starters. Oh, and the Banking Sector board, as well. All the numbers you need.

[Deleted User]

Correct all prices are speculation. When im pricing a project (not talking about the stock market at teh minute but the same rules apply) I use assumptions, experiences, tools and analysis (risk) etc. It bring a balanced view but the spread on say how much a new computer system costs could be anything like 10% prob -150million, 50% -1.1billion, 90% -8billion. The business case can come back to say youve got 800million, you then analyse it along its path, if its looking like things are slipping/requirements creep it then heads up to 1.5 billion 1/3rd the way through with 50million spent, a new business case can get sent back with the reviewed result to put the project on ice/sleep with the fishes/the project is a dead parrot.

It comes back to what you believe in from your assessment, things may change as you get new info along the way, the then go from there. On your own head be it.

In the stock market, say you believe fictional goldmines is worth 4 quid a share, you buy at 115p. A bear comes along and sells short the market panics the shares go in free fall. Next time you check you see they are 55p and have leveled out the panic has stopped and it hasnt done much. You evaluate why the panic, you find no news, so you check with the company website maybe even phone them up, no news. So you could at this point average down ie double your holding which brings your average price to 80p. One year later they announce gold production of 200,000 ounces and the price rockets to 6 quid. Your a very happy chappy. Or they announce its only 25,000 onces the price goes to 160 a share so you have doubled. Some people even hedge their shares with a spread bet in the opposite direction under certain circumstances. If your wrong then you lose, but you only risk what you bet.

Stock market is a simple gamble, prices are supply vs demand. If everyone wants to buy but not sell the price goes up and up.


Thats a few thoughts on pricing, happy hunting.

[Deleted User]

Yep sometimes experts simply make a recommendation to get a effect they want.

Look at alliance and leicester, alot of its loans that it has resold on are sourced through citigroup. Citygroup recently posted a opinion that A+L is a SELL with a target price of 6.70p. Another group with no relationship to A+L has recently rated it as a BUY. A+L have been trying to protect their price to stop take overs, even the director bought 75K of shares in it at 7.50p. Me is thinking the Master of the universe citigroup might have had a hand in A+L shorting, or at least have an interest in buying a uk financial network at a knockdown price thanks to panicking investors. The other good thing with shorting is they can fire peoples stop losses making bigger falls Time shall tell bit of a gamble.

[Deleted User]

Hot off the press for those following NRKs share price

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article2500693.ece

I expect this will prob get prices back up a bit tomorrow as everyone listens to news papers and the times editors and writors prob bought a load yesterday and will cash in... im such a cynic lol.

happy hunting

nb over 50% of NRs shares are now sold short by the dividend date thet means the shorters will have to pay this so i expect tehy might want to close their position by then.

cheerfulcat

albertross wrote: »

So although it's nice to bounce idea's, I wouldn't take too much notice of anyone on a forum, however experienced they appear to be.

Anyone reading the Motley Fool boards would get a better understanding of how to value a company for investment purposes. In other words, a bit of an education, not just a lot of ill-informed gossip and speculation.

amcluesent

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/21/cnnrock121.xml

"Northern Rock effectively 'nationalised' by state guarantee"

"Others speculated that Northern Rock may become the next Railtrack, with the Government taking control and leaving shareholders out of pocket. One banker said: "The Government cannot be seen to be benefiting Northern Rock shareholders. Until shareholders are left with nothing, it is unacceptable politically."

Yep, you can see the thief Brown is all over this like a rash - "Break the capitalists!" he will be gloating:mad:

alared

Interesting interview on the Today program this morning with a guy who`s firm collects market data and short selling figures.
There has been heavy short selling of NR stock as far back as APRIL this year!
And all the way since.

This is ,of course, a deliberate attempt to wreck the share price, which has succeeded, to the the tune of(his figures) one hundred million pounds.

The big hedge funds are behind this and don`t care who they hurt on the way.
They think they smell blood with certain stocks and chase it all the way.

A&L and B&B must be on their list from recent activity. IMO

[Deleted User]

Yep, the bears want investors to lose hope and sell at a lower price then they bought at.

A+L directors have been on "bear" watch buying back short sales to try and win the psycological war the "bears" are waging.

All investors must note - the bears have to buy back at somepoint, and they have to cover all dividends from what they sold short.

[Deleted User]

triple witching this morning. NRK shares are expected to be particularly volotile during this period. Interesting to watch if you have live data feed. Watch stop losses etc etc as there will be spikes in share price either way

s1gar

kittie wrote: »

triple witching this morning. NRK shares are expected to be particularly volotile during this period. Interesting to watch if you have live data feed. Watch stop losses etc etc as there will be spikes in share price either way

at the moment, this morning, they are the most stable they have been for a week. we'll see what happens but i am not expecting a lot and not at all thinking they are on the up. would be stupid to think they are after the last few days.