REMAINERS -there is no recession

HornetSaver

Those who have read my sig will note that I have not changed it. Once Brexit has been completed, there will without any shadow of a doubt be a recession.

Note two things. One, this point has not been reached yet.

Two, and this is very important to those who would otherwise be lining up to attack me, a recession does not, in and of itself, indicate a bad decision having been made. That would be a qualitative judgement based on the benefits and drawbacks of post-Brexit Britain, and the size of the initial economic adjustment would simply be one of those factors. How big the initial, readjustment recession would need to be to make Brexit a bad thing would of course be a political consideration.

Thrugelmir

HornetSaver wrote: »

Those who have read my sig will note that I have not changed it. Once Brexit has been completed, there will without any shadow of a doubt be a recession.

Why not before? The UK doesn't exist in isolation from global markets. Some believe we've a right to things. Rather than actually working for them. After all whether the economy goes well or not. Is down to the individual actions of millions of people.

Sapphire

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Some believe we've a right to things. Rather than actually working for them. After all whether the economy goes well or not. Is down to the individual actions of millions of people.

I'd say that nowadays it's perhaps primarily down to the global untouchable 'elites', with their behind-the-scenes manipulations. There's not much that ordinary individuals can do about it, especially given the generally poor level of education and brainwashing that has gone on over the last few decades, and the fact that the majority of working people, whose jobs are increasingly being threatened due to 'progress' and other obvious factors, are more powerless than ever to stand up to a conniving establishment that is not concerned with the good of the majority, just with its own enrichment… Apologies for the long sentence – in a rush.

HornetSaver

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Some believe we've a right to things. Rather than actually working for them.

Some of those people voted leave. And some voted remain. I fail to see the point you're trying to make in either case.

Why not before? The UK doesn't exist in isolation from global markets.

The UK economy is so deeply intertwined into the EU that things were never going to change overnight given that the economic rules had not been changed. The day the conclusion of the article 50 process comes into force and barriers to existing trade emerge, will be the day that we are on the road to a recession. It's simply a reality that any new opportunities that can be sought are already being sought, whereas existing opportunities which are no longer available can not simply be changed like for like at the push of a button. A point that you would seem to agree with, based on the part of your reply that I quoted first.

And I repeat, this will not, in and of itself, be evidence or proof that Brexit was a bad thing. Let's say (numbers out of thin air for illustrative purposes) the economy grows by 10% due to the opportunities that we have sought out and built upon in the near three years from the referendum to Brexit, contracts by 5% in the year after Brexit due to the shock of a different trading relationship, and then returns to steady growth. It would be true to simultaneously say that Brexit was the cause of a sharp recession, and that Brexit was an economically sound decision.

Thrugelmir

HornetSaver wrote: »

Some of those people voted leave. And some voted remain. I fail to see the point you're trying to make in either case.

Neither the EU nor Brexit are the real answers to the UK's woes. That lies elsewhere. Nor is trade the answer. Ultimately it's a zero end game. Exports = Imports.

economic

HornetSaver wrote: »

Some of those people voted leave. And some voted remain. I fail to see the point you're trying to make in either case.

he seems to make pointless points a lot of the time.

Thrugelmir

HornetSaver wrote: »

And I repeat, this will not, in and of itself, be evidence or proof that Brexit was a bad thing. Let's say (numbers out of thin air for illustrative purposes) the economy grows by 10% due to the opportunities that we have sought out and built upon in the near three years from the referendum to Brexit, contracts by 5% in the year after Brexit due to the shock of a different trading relationship, and then returns to steady growth. It would be true to simultaneously say that Brexit was the cause of a sharp recession, and that Brexit was an economically sound decision.

Perhaps rising interest rates, low wage increases, high debt levels, increased levels of taxation to pay for public sector services will trigger a downturn in any event. The ability of the UK to increase it's exports very fast isn't that great. As the manufacturing base forms a small part of the overall economy. The UK is some 70% service based. If anything it will be imports that will suffer. As people focus on paying for the essentials of life or simply saving or servicing their debts. .

Thrugelmir

economic wrote: »

he seems to make pointless points a lot of the time.

Bye bye. Time to press the ignore button. Me thinks :whistle:

Moby

Sapphire wrote: »

I'd say that nowadays it's perhaps primarily down to the global untouchable 'elites', with their behind-the-scenes manipulations. There's not much that ordinary individuals can do about it, especially given the generally poor level of education and brainwashing that has gone on over the last few decades, and the fact that the majority of working people, whose jobs are increasingly being threatened due to 'progress' and other obvious factors, are more powerless than ever to stand up to a conniving establishment that is not concerned with the good of the majority, just with its own enrichment… Apologies for the long sentence – in a rush.

Yeah right. This is the real establishment:-
http://www.independent.co.uk/News/uk/crime/gina-miller-viscount-rhodri-colwyn-philipps-st-davids-westminster-magistrates-court-brexit-a7834636.html



...and this is what they think of people who challenge their sense of entitlement!

He wrote on the social media site on 7 November 2016: “£5,000 for the first person to 'accidentally' run over this bloody troublesome first generation immigrant."

He then described Ms Miller as a "boat jumper" and added: "If this is what we should expect from immigrants, send them back to their stinking jungles."

Four days later he posted about "torturing Tony Blair, Hilary Clinton, ISIS, Dave (PM) the forgettable, Murdoch..... Oh and that hideous jumped up immigrant Gina Miller".


READ MORE
MPs set up new all-party group to combat ‘destructive’ hard Brexit
He also posted two comments in which he branded immigrants “monkeys”. In a post not directed towards Ms Miller, he wrote: “Please will someone smoke this ghastly insult to this country, why should I pay tax to feed these monkeys?

"A return to Planet of the Apes is not acceptable."

In a previous post he said: "I would vote for Trump if I could."

He talked about a "new crusade" and "collective register of Muslims" and added: "Makes the job a lot easier for our collective SIS [intelligence agencies] to track down non-conformists, and frankly, shoot them on the spot.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Moby wrote: »

Yeah right. This is the real establishment:-
http://www.independent.co.uk/News/uk/crime/gina-miller-viscount-rhodri-colwyn-philipps-st-davids-westminster-magistrates-court-brexit-a7834636.html
...and this is what they think of people who challenge their sense of entitlement!

People are people and the reality is that it makes little difference whether you refer to "establishment", working class, or anywhere in between.
There are good and bad in all - and across the political spectrum too;
just one example being the labour peer Lord Janner.