REMAINERS -there is no recession

bigfreddiel

padington wrote: »

We haven't been kicked out of the common market yet, when that happens, the sh*t goes down.

Rubbish, in reality there will be no difference, things will just rumble along as usual.

michaels

Would anyone bet against 2 consecutive Q of negative growth in the next 4-6?

The world economy looks OK which mitigates against but the level of uncertainty in the UK plus falling real incomes and BoE tightening of lending criteria means it is not only consumers who are sitting on their hands.

I am sure remainers will jump on any weakness with 'I told you so' but as they have spouted in the last 12 months 'we haven't left yet'.

One interesting thing to note is that the recent growth we have had has been much higher in GDP than in GDP per head as a result of net migration. With net migration falling off a cliff or even reversing we will see this particular driver of growth becoming much smaller. Of course in terms of how well off we are it is the per head figure that matters but in terms of perception and what gets reported by the Beeb it is overall GDP that makes all the headlines.

mayonnaise

bigfreddiel wrote: »

For all those REMAINERS, the experts have just admitted there was no economic decline in the last three months as the experts predicted. Wrong!

Now they say growth will be weaker next year. This is a forecast from the very same experts!

Who do you believe now?

Cheers fj

The experts?

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

Would anyone bet against 2 consecutive Q of negative growth in the next 4-6?

No. The Uk economy cannot continue along the same path indefinitely. Nor should GDP be held up as the be all and end all. It's just a rough and ready indicator that gets revised for years afterwards. The focus should be on indicators that the economy is rebalancing.

HornetSaver

Those who have read my sig will note that I have not changed it. Once Brexit has been completed, there will without any shadow of a doubt be a recession.

Note two things. One, this point has not been reached yet.

Two, and this is very important to those who would otherwise be lining up to attack me, a recession does not, in and of itself, indicate a bad decision having been made. That would be a qualitative judgement based on the benefits and drawbacks of post-Brexit Britain, and the size of the initial economic adjustment would simply be one of those factors. How big the initial, readjustment recession would need to be to make Brexit a bad thing would of course be a political consideration.

Thrugelmir

HornetSaver wrote: »

Those who have read my sig will note that I have not changed it. Once Brexit has been completed, there will without any shadow of a doubt be a recession.

Why not before? The UK doesn't exist in isolation from global markets. Some believe we've a right to things. Rather than actually working for them. After all whether the economy goes well or not. Is down to the individual actions of millions of people.

Sapphire

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Some believe we've a right to things. Rather than actually working for them. After all whether the economy goes well or not. Is down to the individual actions of millions of people.

I'd say that nowadays it's perhaps primarily down to the global untouchable 'elites', with their behind-the-scenes manipulations. There's not much that ordinary individuals can do about it, especially given the generally poor level of education and brainwashing that has gone on over the last few decades, and the fact that the majority of working people, whose jobs are increasingly being threatened due to 'progress' and other obvious factors, are more powerless than ever to stand up to a conniving establishment that is not concerned with the good of the majority, just with its own enrichment… Apologies for the long sentence – in a rush.

HornetSaver

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Some believe we've a right to things. Rather than actually working for them.

Some of those people voted leave. And some voted remain. I fail to see the point you're trying to make in either case.

Why not before? The UK doesn't exist in isolation from global markets.

The UK economy is so deeply intertwined into the EU that things were never going to change overnight given that the economic rules had not been changed. The day the conclusion of the article 50 process comes into force and barriers to existing trade emerge, will be the day that we are on the road to a recession. It's simply a reality that any new opportunities that can be sought are already being sought, whereas existing opportunities which are no longer available can not simply be changed like for like at the push of a button. A point that you would seem to agree with, based on the part of your reply that I quoted first.

And I repeat, this will not, in and of itself, be evidence or proof that Brexit was a bad thing. Let's say (numbers out of thin air for illustrative purposes) the economy grows by 10% due to the opportunities that we have sought out and built upon in the near three years from the referendum to Brexit, contracts by 5% in the year after Brexit due to the shock of a different trading relationship, and then returns to steady growth. It would be true to simultaneously say that Brexit was the cause of a sharp recession, and that Brexit was an economically sound decision.

Thrugelmir

HornetSaver wrote: »

Some of those people voted leave. And some voted remain. I fail to see the point you're trying to make in either case.

Neither the EU nor Brexit are the real answers to the UK's woes. That lies elsewhere. Nor is trade the answer. Ultimately it's a zero end game. Exports = Imports.

economic

HornetSaver wrote: »

Some of those people voted leave. And some voted remain. I fail to see the point you're trying to make in either case.

he seems to make pointless points a lot of the time.