REMAINERS -there is no recession

talexuser

We haven't had an emergency budget but we have had a 0.25% base rate, which can hardly be described as getting back to normal.

Ashen

Malthusian wrote: »

No it isn't. The Emergency Budget was to immediately follow a Leave vote

Err... as I said, Article 50 was also supposed to immediately follow a Leave vote, as was indicated prior to the referendum result. Saying that "no one expected" it would be rather short of the truth.

Malthusian wrote: »

(For it to follow Article 50 would be absurd - this implies that businesses would wait for Article 50 would be invoked before withdrawing from the UK and causing catastrophic recession etc, despite the fact that everyone in both camps agrees that it's a done deal and Article 50 is a when and not an if.)

Yeah! It's *such* a ridiculous idea that a business might want to see what the likely outcome of a hugely complex negotiation is (with the possibility of vastly different outcomes) before they take major action!

That's sarcasm, BTW. Just in case.

eskbanker

Ashen wrote: »

Yeah! It's *such* a ridiculous idea that a business might want to see what the likely outcome of a hugely complex negotiation is (with the possibility of vastly different outcomes) before they take major action!

As pointed out on this and other threads, those voting in the referendum also didn't know which of the various Brexit outcomes would be achievable/relevant either but still went ahead and voted anyway! Just saying....

Ashen

Yes, which is why a referendum on it was such an awful idea - people were voting for a huge unknown. We still don't know what that unknown will be.

I don't think our government even know what they want that unknown to be, short of some hypothetical dream scenario.

fireblade28

Erm no because we didn't leave yet.

Wait until next year.

veryintrigued

jimjames wrote: »

... I can imagine....

There's a lot of that nonsense going on....

bigfreddiel

JohnRo wrote: »

When is article 50 being invoked then?

Early 2017 happy now? fj

AndyT678

bigfreddiel wrote: »

Early 2017 happy now? fj

Says who? Experts?

ruperts

Whether we do eventually have a post-Brexit recession or not, cheering because things aren't quite as bad as we might have feared certainly sets a low bar when it comes to measuring success. Imagine if companies applied the same standards to other things in life: "Fly Malaysian Airlines, we haven't crashed or been shot down for weeks", or "Tesco Value Sausages - they may no longer make you vomit now that we've increased the pork content up to 6%"


Cheer because something goes well, not because it hasn't been a disaster. Where are all the positives we were supposed to experience? Is our democracy much better now? Have we made lots of our own laws? Have wages gone up? Have house prices gone down (or up)? Have we built that new hospital every week? Are the queues at your doctor's surgery smaller? Have all those 'orrible Polish shops disappeared? Have we got the empire back? Am I young again?

BobQ

bigfreddiel wrote: »

For all those REMAINERS, the experts have just admitted there was no economic decline in the last three months as the experts predicted. Wrong!

Now they say growth will be weaker next year. This is a forecast from the very same experts!

Who do you believe now?

Cheers fj

I recall the experts were discussing the scenario of UK leaving the EU. It has not happened yet.

You may be right that the experts will be proven wrong but right now we cannot be certain. Most firms set their plans up to 12 months ahead. What matters are the decisions being made now that affect what happens next year.