REMAINERS -there is no recession

JohnRo

StevieJ wrote: »

Project fear was that something to do with 75 million Turks making there way over here?

Don't discount the UKIP/EDL campaign tapping into all the 'Polish vermin' hatred and similar vile sentiment towards those 'foreigners' already living here and contributing.

DigForVictory

I'm right with the economist who, when asked how the economy was doing post Brexit, said unhesitatingly "it's far too early to say".

We'll only 'Know' in about a decade & much may yet happen.

Of course professionals have views - they're paid to, but I think we've put down a darn big bet & are still waiting for the penny to land.

kidmugsy

StevieJ wrote: »

Project fear was that something to do with 75 million Turks making there way over here?

Flimflam. Project Fear "experts" said that there would be an immediate calamity after a Brexit vote. Hypothetical Turks have no bearing on whether that prediction proved false. It has proved false: they were wrong.

As for what happens in the future, I imagine that when anything unpopular happens, Remnants will blame it on the Brexit vote or on Brexit, irrespective of how many other events will have occurred in the meantime.


Italian financial collapse? Brexit! Deutsche Bank meltdown? Brexit!
Chinese debt crisis? Brexit! Icelandic volcano erupts? Brexit! Nestle ditches the Toffee Deluxe from its Quality Street? Brexit!

IanManc

Ashen wrote: »

Thank you for the detailed analysis.

You're very welcome. :rotfl:

Malthusian

Ashen wrote: »

By near-record level, of course you mean measuring international companies in a currency worth 10% less than a day or two previously, as well as ignoring the FTSE250 of smaller British companies.

Even if you remove the fall in sterling (which would be somewhat odd, as for most investors in the UK stockmarket it is neither here nor there why the stockmarket has gone up when they are going to spend their income or gains in the UK), that just means that the UK stockmarket is roughly at its pre-referendum level. According to Remainders it should have plummeted.

Never in the history of the stockmarket have so many people converted to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (that the UK stockmarket is an infallible barometer of the future success of the UK economy) over breakfast and then abandoned it by lunchtime.

When is the Emergency Budget?

JohnRo

It sounds a bit like an attempt to deflect the inevitable trouble ahead.

Italian financial collapse? Brexit! Deutsche Bank meltdown? Brexit!
Chinese debt crisis? Brexit! Another Tsunami? Brexit! Icelandic volcano erupts? Brexit!

... and everything bad that happens because of the self inflicted idiocy will then be blamed on other things. My best guess for who or what will get the blame, immigrants, foreigners and of course the EU...

Scotland leave the UK? EU! NI leaves the UK? EU! International UK business relocates to continental mainland? EU! Falling UK GDP and living standards? EU! Everything else? Foreigners and Immigrants!

See how it works both ways? I know which of the two blame game propositions is the more likely though

macca1974

I'm sure that this point has already been made as I've only read the first few posts. But surely its a bit early for this type of comment as nothing has happened yet. We've voted to leave, but we are still an EU member. Perhaps another way of saying this is "isn't it great continuing to be a member of the EU as our manufacturers have really been able to take advantage of the 15% drop in sterling as they have access to the single market."

I_Love_comps

Whether you voted Remain or leave - we will not see if there is a recession until AFTER we have left . Which will not be for another two years plus.

IanManc

The dire predictions for the immediate aftermath of the referendum result made by Carney, Osborne, Cameron et al were wrong, but it is too soon to tell much else. Nor do we know what the terms of the exit from the EU will be. It might be fun - or not - to speculate about what the future holds, but speculation is all it is, and neither the doom mongers nor the eternal optimists are really able to foretell the future.

Ashen

Malthusian wrote: »

When is the Emergency Budget?

It's a little bit odd to question the lack of an emergency budget, without taking into account the rather large omission of the invoking of Article 50. That's even without taking into account the fact there were major threats of a veto.

As I previously said, the major issues will come up after Article 50 is invoked, not before, which makes all these arguments over predictions rather silly.