REMAINERS -there is no recession

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

I recall the experts were discussing the scenario of UK leaving the EU. It has not happened yet.

You may be right that the experts will be proven wrong but right now we cannot be certain. Most firms set their plans up to 12 months ahead. What matters are the decisions being made now that affect what happens next year.

you remember incorrectly

StevieJ

kidmugsy wrote: »

Flimflam. Project Fear "experts" said that there would be an immediate calamity after a Brexit vote. Hypothetical Turks have no bearing on whether that prediction proved false. It has proved false: they were wrong.

As for what happens in the future, I imagine that when anything unpopular happens, Remnants will blame it on the Brexit vote or on Brexit, irrespective of how many other events will have occurred in the meantime.

Whereas Brexiteers will say, that would have happened anyway :cool:

Thrugelmir

In 1942? Hard to believe.

Masomnia

Ashen wrote: »

It's a little bit odd to question the lack of an emergency budget, without taking into account the rather large omission of the invoking of Article 50. That's even without taking into account the fact there were major threats of a veto.

As I previously said, the major issues will come up after Article 50 is invoked, not before, which makes all these arguments over predictions rather silly.

It isn't odd at all, as Osborne himself said following the vote that it would not happen.

Conrad

BobQ wrote: »

I recall the experts were discussing the scenario of UK leaving the EU. It has not happened yet.


Most firms set their plans up to 12 months ahead.

BOE - May inflation report; “there is a risk that a period of heightened uncertainty around the referendum could dampen confidence, prompting households to defer consumption and increase their savings.”
ONS just reported no apparent knock in consumer confidence.




Christine Lagarde of the IMF - 13/May - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/13/house-prices-and-stock-market-will-tumble-if-uk-votes-for-brexit/


An "abrupt reaction to an exit vote" could entail "sharp drops in equity and house prices, increased borrowing costs for households and businesses" that would hit growth.


George Osborne 21 May - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36344425


'a Leave vote would produce an “immediate economic shock” that would “affect the value of people’s homes” to the tune of 18 per cent. The Treasury’s small print revealed that they were actually forecasting that house prices would continue to rise


and - (link is too wide to post here)
“a vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession”.


and - An emergency budget. Osborne, along with Alan Johnson, said a few days before the referendum that a Leave vote would result in an emergency budget, involving £30 billion of spending cuts and tax rises. The expected timescale numerous newspapers gleaned from Treasury spinners was that this would happen “within weeks” of the referendum.


I've got plenty more examples if you want them.




Markets have already hard baked future considerations into today's market prices, I see no lack of confidence indicated by the markets, especially the 250.

padington

bigfreddiel wrote: »

For all those REMAINERS, the experts have just admitted there was no economic decline in the last three months as the experts predicted. Wrong!

Now they say growth will be weaker next year. This is a forecast from the very same experts!

Who do you believe now?

Cheers fj

We haven't been kicked out of the common market yet, when that happens, the sh*t goes down.

bigfreddiel

padington wrote: »

We haven't been kicked out of the common market yet, when that happens, the sh*t goes down.

Rubbish, in reality there will be no difference, things will just rumble along as usual.

michaels

Would anyone bet against 2 consecutive Q of negative growth in the next 4-6?

The world economy looks OK which mitigates against but the level of uncertainty in the UK plus falling real incomes and BoE tightening of lending criteria means it is not only consumers who are sitting on their hands.

I am sure remainers will jump on any weakness with 'I told you so' but as they have spouted in the last 12 months 'we haven't left yet'.

One interesting thing to note is that the recent growth we have had has been much higher in GDP than in GDP per head as a result of net migration. With net migration falling off a cliff or even reversing we will see this particular driver of growth becoming much smaller. Of course in terms of how well off we are it is the per head figure that matters but in terms of perception and what gets reported by the Beeb it is overall GDP that makes all the headlines.

mayonnaise

bigfreddiel wrote: »

For all those REMAINERS, the experts have just admitted there was no economic decline in the last three months as the experts predicted. Wrong!

Now they say growth will be weaker next year. This is a forecast from the very same experts!

Who do you believe now?

Cheers fj

The experts?

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

Would anyone bet against 2 consecutive Q of negative growth in the next 4-6?

No. The Uk economy cannot continue along the same path indefinitely. Nor should GDP be held up as the be all and end all. It's just a rough and ready indicator that gets revised for years afterwards. The focus should be on indicators that the economy is rebalancing.