Brexiters should be 'Ashamed of the harm to come"

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

Productivity increases are already pencilled in to pay for the burden of a larger portion of old age pensions and sickness

If migration slows we will have no choice but to increase the pension age further and/or reduce the real payments to the old and/or reduce the real healthcare services for the old RELATIVE to what they would otherwise be with a better working/retired ratio.

I don't think we have maximised the amount of productivity increases that are readily achievable; the large supply of cheap labour has made improving productively a RELATIVELY low priority for many businesses.
There is no reason to believe that health care will be sacrificed in any way.
But we can both agree that endless more immigration will reduce the standard of housing in London and the SE RELATIVE to what would otherwise be the case.

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

In case you guys missed this pivotal article;


The Guardian here at last recognising that devaluation came in the nick of time, to address our unsustainable trade deficit, written by a Remainer:

There are benefits to devaluation. However, I wonder if the typical leave voter would've been inclined to vote that way if they realised the Brexit vote would trigger a large increase in their shopping and fuel bills.

Yes, balanced trade may be a good thing but not so great for people having to pay for more expensive, and limited, British produce because they can't afford the imports.

Will hardly affect you and I as we could substitute our nice British craft beer and artisan cheese with imported items at post-devaluation prices and still save money if we wished.

The danger for the new era of prosperity is not only that remainers derail the dream but that price sensitive Brexiteers will think they've been sold a pup.

Conrad

steampowered wrote: »

Certainly the devaluation of sterling is a good thing if you want to see more manufacturing jobs and are prepared for everybody to have lower living standards to achieve that.

We are a high end knowledge based economy with world class education and science behind us, a modest industrial expansion underpinned by these qualities will absolutely not mean living standards fall, quite the reverse.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

There are benefits to devaluation. However, I wonder if the typical leave voter would've been inclined to vote that way if they realised the Brexit vote would trigger a large increase in their shopping and fuel bills.

Yes, balanced trade may be a good thing but not so great for people having to pay for more expensive, and limited, British produce because they can't afford the imports.

Will hardly affect you and I as we could substitute our nice British craft beer and artisan cheese with imported items at post-devaluation prices and still save money if we wished.

The danger for the new era of prosperity is not only that remainers derail the dream but that price sensitive Brexiteers will think they've been sold a pup.

Remain supporters were not told that the large trade deficit would inevitably lead to devaluation and a lower pound.
They were NOT told that current standard of living was based on massive foreign borrowings and selling off our best industries and businesses.

It is however, true, that people would wish harm to brexit will lie and mislead to distract people from the true economic facts.

kabayiri

wotsthat wrote: »

There are benefits to devaluation. However, I wonder if the typical leave voter would've been inclined to vote that way if they realised the Brexit vote would trigger a large increase in their shopping and fuel bills.
...

Maybe people need a wake up call.

In other discussions we complain about the obesity crisis, and point to people filling up their shopping trolleys with processed rubbish.

We still have options in this country. You can choose where you shop and what you buy.

I look at the really poor in Africa who don't even get to choose the quality of their water, and realise we don't have it that bad.

CLAPTON

steampowered wrote: »

I agree. It is disappointing on both sides.

I recently lived abroad for a few years. Experiencing the political debate over there was actually a bit of a shock. People had disagreements but they discussed them in a civil manner, without insulting the other side, without exaggerating and displaying the basic integrity of recognising when the other side had a valid point.

Its such a shame to come back to the UK and observe that so many people seem unable to have a balanced, honest discussion without resorting to comically tribal positions.
.

Who exactly did you talk to in Europe
You haven't noticed the rise in the far right:
Le Pen in France
AfD in germany
freedom party in austria

attacks on asylum hostels etc.

sadly you seem a superb example of the typical bigot able only to express on side of the argument and with the usual left wing negative view of the people of the UK.

Conrad

wotsthat wrote: »

There are benefits to devaluation. However, I wonder if the typical leave voter would've been inclined to vote that way if they realised the Brexit vote would trigger a large increase in their shopping and fuel bills.

Yes, balanced trade may be a good thing but not so great for people having to pay for more expensive, and limited, British produce because they can't afford the imports.

Sorry wotthat we've always had inflation, todays very low rate is unusual and would not have been sustained anyway.


I would expect it to rise to 2/3%, pretty much what we've always had.


A big proportion of folk have not benefitted from our current model of mass imports and cheap labour.


We have an obesity problem, most of us can always eat a little less if food costs are an issue

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

I don't think we have maximised the amount of productivity increases that are readily achievable; the large supply of cheap labour has made improving productively a RELATIVELY low priority for many businesses.

Name a few examples please

Tech is clearly global and set mostly by america what we do here wont speed up or slow down the tech side of things. Likewise most manufacturing.

There is no reason to believe that health care will be sacrificed in any way.

If the working age to retired ratio decreases (say because of brexit or anything else for that matter) there would have to be cuts to what the old can expect from the working and since the majority of the cost of the old are healthcare and pensions that is what will have to be cut relative to what would have been the case.

But we can both agree that endless more immigration will reduce the standard of housing in London and the SE RELATIVE to what would otherwise be the case.

use your words more clearly, the standard of housing wont reduce its more likely to go up as people spend more improving the housing stock each and every year

What you mean is the occupancy rate will go up relative to what it would otherwise be. This is likely true but I dont see a huge negative in the occupancy rate of London going from 2.45 to 2.55 over a decade.

Also some of that additional occupancy rate will be offset by the above of improving housing standards (eg I know someone who added a substantial extension to their 4 bed house to make it a 10 bed 10 bathroom high quality HMO). If you look at it as bedrooms per person the increase will be lower than the 2.45 to 2.55 suggested above.


Also note that only about 1/3rd of the 2.45 to 2.55 change in London occupancy is going to be EU migrants the 2/3rds are London births outnumbering deaths and non EU migrants.

So its more like the occupancy rate in London in 10 years time will be ~2.52 with a very hard brexit or ~2.55 if we had continued as we were.
So 2.55 vs 2.52 and this assumes a ZERO impact on new builds if they go down a bit the difference will be even lower

ruggedtoast

CLAPTON wrote: »

and you firm believe that there is no possibility of increasing the production of goods and service per working person.

I expect no less than a detailed 5 pages of maths to show that never, when you take all things into account including the price of houses in Trent, plus discounting the next 1000 years, and noting that all people are your cousins, has there been an increase in productivity except by way of economies of scale.

The production of goods and services is usually predicated by an increase in demand. Something you Brexitards have knocked back to about 1993 thanks to your stupidity and thinly veneered xenophobia.

Thanks Brexitards,

cells

Conrad wrote: »

Sorry wotthat we've always had inflation, todays very low rate is unusual and would not have been sustained anyway.

I would expect it to rise to 2/3%, pretty much what we've always had.

The fall in the £ and high inflation would be fine, maybe even good, if it resulted in wage inflation but if its just going to be cost inflation thats just going to make us all poorer

A big proportion of folk have not benefited from our current model of mass imports

consumers benefit from lower prices. An example is textiles and clothing now much much cheaper than 20 years ago. The money not spent on paying £30 but paying £10 for the cloths can be spent on artisan cheese from tigers milked by goats that you propose will power us to new heights

and cheap labour.

what cheap labuor? Median full time male wages are circa £35k a year, actually higher if you include the employers NI contributions

We have an obesity problem, we can always eat a little less

Its funny how the world works, people who spend less on food tend to be fatter and less healthy as the cheapest foods cost a lot less than good quality foods. An example would be a £1 packet of biscuits with 1,000 calories is cheaper and bad for you while a £2.50 sandwich with 500 calories is more expensive had less food in it and probably is not so bad for you.