Brexit means Brexit

prosaver

forget about the another referendum, its not the best of three.. move on

BobQ

prosaver wrote: »

forget about the another referendum, its not the best of three.. move on

We are about to spend a lot of money extricating our country from the EU and the uncertainty of its implications (for good or ill)

It would be good to know that the outcome is worthwhile and more than just moving to the EEA and continuing in the single market, freedom of movement, and paying the same contributions.

mrginge

kinger101 wrote: »

What do you think we might negotiate in that time? If we won't accept free movement of people and all the other bits that Norway have, then we're on WTO rules. The EU have made it clear there's no pick 'n' mix. It's not even clear they will commence negotiations until it has been triggered. The only benefit I can see in stalling is a bit more time to draft agreements with the rest of the world.

If, as you state, the EU have already outlined their final position, then there is no benefit in us triggering 50 until we have completely outlined our position with the RoW.

So we can simply shift focus to other negotiations while the EU remains in a position of uncertainty, where it can't realistically move itself forward. We will build and develop new relationships while the EU stagnates.

The reality of course is that the EU is perfectly open to negotiation despite the expected hardline rhetoric. Just the same way that we have to accept some compromises.

However, as to the idea that the EU will offer us some concessionary deal that keeps us in... well that would seem to me to be a total political capitulation which would simply encourage plenty of other fringe countries towards the same route.

KingS6

Anybody else noticed the Swiss option is getting less and less media attention?

Thrugelmir

kinger101 wrote: »

What do you think we might negotiate in that time? If we won't accept free movement of people and all the other bits that Norway have, then we're on WTO rules. The EU have made it clear there's no pick 'n' mix. It's not even clear they will commence negotiations until it has been triggered. The only benefit I can see in stalling is a bit more time to draft agreements with the rest of the world.

In the real world. Takes time to put the manpower resources together. Things don't just happen at the flick of a switch. As an example.

Announced 13th July 2016 New ministerial appointment July 2016: Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-ministerial-appointment-july-2016-secretary-of-state-for-exiting-the-european-union

To make room for the new appointment the Minster of Pensions role was downgraded and is no longer a cabinet post.

AFF8879

Various news outlets reporting today that article 50 May not get triggered until the end of 2017. The "danger" there of course is that the formalities of leaving could trickle over into 2020 when we would possibly have a new government, who would take a different view and reverse Brexit altogether.

I was and remain a "Remain" supporter but prolonging the uncertainty is the worst thing for the economy right now. If we go ahead with it, or if we reverse it....we will survive under both scenarios. But the longer its dragged out the more painful it will be...

kinger101

KingS6 wrote: »

Anybody else noticed the Swiss option is getting less and less media attention?

The Swiss option as they are operating it at the moment isn't even an option for Switzerland. They've been told to open their borders fully.

I don't see either Swiss or Norwegian models as being acceptable to those that wanted to leave the EU.

kinger101

mrginge wrote: »

If, as you state, the EU have already outlined their final position, then there is no benefit in us triggering 50 until we have completely outlined our position with the RoW.

So we can simply shift focus to other negotiations while the EU remains in a position of uncertainty, where it can't realistically move itself forward. We will build and develop new relationships while the EU stagnates.

The reality of course is that the EU is perfectly open to negotiation despite the expected hardline rhetoric. Just the same way that we have to accept some compromises.

However, as to the idea that the EU will offer us some concessionary deal that keeps us in... well that would seem to me to be a total political capitulation which would simply encourage plenty of other fringe countries towards the same route.

I suspect the longer we leave it, the less likely the EU is going to negotiate with us anyway. So we'll get nothing instead of very little. As we're net importers from the EU, it's not in the interests of many of the nations to act out of spite anyway, but that won't stop them. The EU long stopped acting in the interest of it's member states a long time ago.

kinger101

AFF8879 wrote: »

Various news outlets reporting today that article 50 May not get triggered until the end of 2017. The "danger" there of course is that the formalities of leaving could trickle over into 2020 when we would possibly have a new government, who would take a different view and reverse Brexit altogether.

I was and remain a "Remain" supporter but prolonging the uncertainty is the worst thing for the economy right now. If we go ahead with it, or if we reverse it....we will survive under both scenarios. But the longer its dragged out the more painful it will be...

My understanding was the excuse they were using were they weren't sure who they were supposed to be negotiating with anyway with elections coming up in France and Germany. But that argument could be used ad infinitum given there are plenty of other countries in the EU. Some of which change their government frequently.

It's going to get messy if we're not out by May 2019, when European Parliamentary elections are held.

dealer_wins

If we dont leave the EU, then democracy is finished in this country.