Experts - chocolate teapot

Pincher

Nobody wants your money, that's what near zero interest rate says.

When you have too much pf anything, it becomes worthless.
So QE was always going to end in tears.

The unprecedented thing that is happening is UNIVERSAL HYPER-INFLATION. ALL the traditional HARD currencies are now shaky, including the Japanese YEN. The only reason it is high right now is the perception that it is relatively "safer", despite an over dose of QE. The mood can swing the other way, and "people" can think the U.K. is insulated from a collapsing Eurozone: sterling can suddenly be safe haven of the century.

Switzerland has decoupled the Swiss Franc from the Euro, which is like the Titanic, with Greece as the beginning of the iceberg gash. If it slices through Portugal, Spain and Italy, how can they keep sailing?

The Swiss Franc shot up, so why can't sterling do the same?
It's just the scare mongering from REMAIN that makes people think BREXIT is bad for the UK. Launching a life boat and leaving EURO Titanic could be the smart move in two years time.

Thrugelmir

bigfreddiel wrote: »

In fact how about a reality tv show, like big brother, get a random selection of applicants, and film them bringing the bank back into profit. Now that would be interesting.

They'd crack under the pressure in under a week.

BananaRepublic

Economics is known as the dismal science as its predictions are so poor. The problem is that unlike physics or chemistry, it deals with the real world, with so many unknowns that you cannot know what will happen in the future. I am always astonished when the BBC and others quote experts predicting a 2% fall in GDP, or whatever, without ever providing any information on the accuracy of previous predictions from these people. More often than not they were wrong in the past, and they will be wrong in the future.

As for RBS, they are operating in a competitive market, competing against other large organisations.

Glen_Clark

Pincher wrote: »

The Swiss Franc shot up, so why can't sterling do the same?

http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/

bigadaj

BananaRepublic wrote: »

Economics is known as the dismal science as its predictions are so poor. The problem is that unlike physics or chemistry, it deals with the real world, with so many unknowns that you cannot know what will happen in the future. I am always astonished when the BBC and others quote experts predicting a 2% fall in GDP, or whatever, without ever providing any information on the accuracy of previous predictions from these people. More often than not they were wrong in the past, and they will be wrong in the future.

As for RBS, they are operating in a competitive market, competing against other large organisations.

Many people would say that it's the physical sciences that are operating in the real world, theirs nothing fundamental about the modern economic system. Free market capitalism with regulatory control, or not in many cases, is just the system that matches human characters, both good and bad.

Economics is fundamentally academic as you get teh marks for your workings out even if the result is wildly inaccurate, just imagine if an Ltcm style disaster has happened with some nuclear scientists, they'd have been locked up and the key thrown away

For a real world example look at the geologists convicted in Italy for the Assisi earthquake predictions, why isn't the same applied to economists?

Pincher

Glen_Clark wrote: »

http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/

ALL the major western currencies have very high levels of debt,
it's just perception of which is a little safer than the rest.

The ultra low interest rate does present a currency play that is a good bet. Borrow 100 million YEN at 1.1% fixed for five years. Wait for the exchange rate to reverse. In the mean time, buy an income generating asset like an income fund, which pays the 1.1% interest.

The interest is 1.1million YEN, which is £8,270 a year.

If I could get 3% from an income fund, it's free money for five years. Ultimate stoozing play.

A really funky setup would be to get a YEN denominated BTL mortgage, £752k = 100million YEN, interest only. 3% yield is £22,556, so you get basic rate tax relief from the £8,270 interest payment.:D

The problem is, who will lend me 100 million YEN?

BananaRepublic

bigadaj wrote: »

Many people would say that it's the physical sciences that are operating in the real world, theirs nothing fundamental about the modern economic system. Free market capitalism with regulatory control, or not in many cases, is just the system that matches human characters, both good and bad.

Economics is fundamentally academic as you get teh marks for your workings out even if the result is wildly inaccurate, just imagine if an Ltcm style disaster has happened with some nuclear scientists, they'd have been locked up and the key thrown away

For a real world example look at the geologists convicted in Italy for the Assisi earthquake predictions, why isn't the same applied to economists?

I think you miss the point. Physics has the advantage that you can control the experiment. Thus when you create your silicon chip, you know exactly the type and thickness of each layer, and hence it's behaviour. Economics will work in highly idealised situations, but in 'the real world' you rarely come across such situations, not when it comes to making long term (several months ahead or more) economic predictions anyway.

I have heard that university economics is very theoretical and not focussed on 'the real world' which is why many students have started to protest that their courses are not very useful. Physics on the other hand is theoretical, but useful in a wide range of areas e.g. semiconductors, satellite navigation, GPS, materials science and so on.

Glen_Clark

Pincher wrote: »

ALL the major western currencies have very high levels of debt,

You said The Swiss Franc shot up, so why can't sterling do the same?
A quick google shows Switzerland (debt to GDP ratio 34% and falling) UK (debt to GDP ratio 89% and rising)

veryintrigued

badger09 wrote: »

You miss the point I was trying to make.

Several posters have suggested, quite strongly, that atush doesn't understand the concept of scientific theory. I simply suggested that with her background, she probably does.

Moving on....

I got your point hence my response.

That makes me qualified in all sorts of areas I've never been qualified in then! ;-)

In some ways it would be better for forums to redact usernames such that readers judge the worth of individual posts for what they are rather than who made them.....I cant be the only forumite who has a chuckle when they see the same old forumites 'thanking' or agreeing with posts from the same old other forumites no matter what nonsense they type.

bigadaj

BananaRepublic wrote: »

I think you miss the point. Physics has the advantage that you can control the experiment. Thus when you create your silicon chip, you know exactly the type and thickness of each layer, and hence it's behaviour. Economics will work in highly idealised situations, but in 'the real world' you rarely come across such situations, not when it comes to making long term (several months ahead or more) economic predictions anyway.

I have heard that university economics is very theoretical and not focussed on 'the real world' which is why many students have started to protest that their courses are not very useful. Physics on the other hand is theoretical, but useful in a wide range of areas e.g. semiconductors, satellite navigation, GPS, materials science and so on.

Maybe but you've missed the point of my missing your point.

There is purportedly value in economics, supposedly more than physics in most cases in our strange reality, yet it's the economists that appear to be more highly valued when no real value is added and often destroyed. Similar cases may be made for managers and the tyranny of the MBA, potentially in general management terms but pointedly when it comes to mergers and acquisitions that more often than not destroy value.