An Evening With... Jeremy Corbyn

BACKFRMTHEEDGE

ruggedtoast wrote: »

And Mrs RT is just grateful I'm not a member of the Libdems any more. Vince Cable has a lot to say and you always miss the last train.

When did you leave the Libdems? I have to say your posts suggested to me that you'd been in the LP all your voting life, so I'm surprised to read that you have only just seen the light.

Don't you feel in the slightest bit guilty about what you're doing? You're destroying the LP and making it unelectable for a generation and you've only been a member for 5 minutes. (Ed has so much to answer for).

Dird

Jeremy Corbyn on Balancing the books
Books schmooks

westernpromise

Dird wrote: »

Jeremy Corbyn on Balancing the books
Books schmooks

Pretty much so, yes. The loony left's stock answer to the question "how will you pay for it?" is "tax the rich". So we'll have poor people who stay poor and rich people who'll become poor because Yeremiy's going to take and spend all their money. Everyone will then be poor, so socialist nirvana will have arrived!

It is genuinely odd how disconnected from reality Khorbiyn's cheerleaders are. As I pointed out above, with Labour having lost Scotland he can only win an election by taking Conservative votes directly away in England and turning them into votes for a Trotskyite version of the Labour party. The idea that people who don't vote will suddenly start to do so and will all be hard left has no basis in any data that exist.

So: where are the Corbyn rallies in places like Nantwich, attended by 3,000 Conservatives of 2015 who have now all become Trots and supporters of Yeremiy? They need to be happening by now because he needs to win 50 seats off the Tories; that's one a month he has to convert between now and the latest likely GE date. Are they happening and not being reported? I think we should be told.

It is actually quite possible for a truly awful result to befall Labour, as follows. The PLP does not break away en masse and Labour does not split. Instead moderate MPs get deselected in favour of useful idiots, stay until 2020 as Provisional Labour, then fight and lose the seat to Official Labour (which locally has all the canvass data and the boots on the ground). They then quit politics and get jobs as human rights lawyers, Guardian columnists and heads of political activist groups like Shelter and the WWF.

Others just tell themselves that once Yeremiy's been thrashed he'll quit, reason will prevail and a moderate will be elected to replace him.

Instead, Labour polls 22% and on 600 seats we get a result like

CON: 43%, 383 seats
LAB : 22%, 142 seats
LIB: 11%, 5 seats
UKIP: 13%, 0 seats
Green: 5.5%, 2 seats
SNP: 4.9%, 49 seats
PlaidC: 0.6%, 3 seats
N.Ire: 16 seats

and Yeremiy hails this as a triumph because 6.75 million people voted for revolutionary socialism. He has form here - he has cited Labour's 1983 defeat as evidence of how popular leftism is.

So he does not resign and any challenger must be nominated by a Corbynite PLP. Well, they were prepared to nominate Corbyn in 2015 but we can be sure the reverse will not apply, so Yeremiy at this point is effectively leader for life, with 140-odd MPs all of whom are Trotskyite nodding dogs.

In theory this leaves the field open for a sensible centre left party to emerge - but only if May leaves them any room. If there are two allotropes of the Labour Party both claiming to be the real thing then the Tories are home and dry for at least three more general elections.

Malthusian

Jeremy Corbyn on Balancing the books
All books weigh the same if you throw them on a bonfire and reduce them to a smouldering pile of ash so that the proletariat are not seduced by counter-revolutionary literature. Our Russian and Iranian comrades have shown us the way forward.

cells

westernpromise wrote: »

Pretty much so, yes. The loony left's stock answer to the question "how will you pay for it?" is "tax the rich". So we'll have poor people who stay poor and rich people who'll become poor because Yeremiy's going to take and spend all their money. Everyone will then be poor, so socialist nirvana will have arrived!

It is genuinely odd how disconnected from reality Khorbiyn's cheerleaders are. As I pointed out above, with Labour having lost Scotland he can only win an election by taking Conservative votes directly away in England and turning them into votes for a Trotskyite version of the Labour party. The idea that people who don't vote will suddenly start to do so and will all be hard left has no basis in any data that exist.

So: where are the Corbyn rallies in places like Nantwich, attended by 3,000 Conservatives of 2015 who have now all become Trots and supporters of Yeremiy? They need to be happening by now because he needs to win 50 seats off the Tories; that's one a month he has to convert between now and the latest likely GE date. Are they happening and not being reported? I think we should be told.

It is actually quite possible for a truly awful result to befall Labour, as follows. The PLP does not break away en masse and Labour does not split. Instead moderate MPs get deselected in favour of useful idiots, stay until 2020 as Provisional Labour, then fight and lose the seat to Official Labour (which locally has all the canvass data and the boots on the ground). They then quit politics and get jobs as human rights lawyers, Guardian columnists and heads of political activist groups like Shelter and the WWF.

Others just tell themselves that once Yeremiy's been thrashed he'll quit, reason will prevail and a moderate will be elected to replace him.

Instead, Labour polls 22% and on 600 seats we get a result like

CON: 43%, 383 seats
LAB : 22%, 142 seats
LIB: 11%, 5 seats
UKIP: 13%, 0 seats
Green: 5.5%, 2 seats
SNP: 4.9%, 49 seats
PlaidC: 0.6%, 3 seats
N.Ire: 16 seats

and Yeremiy hails this as a triumph because 6.75 million people voted for revolutionary socialism. He has form here - he has cited Labour's 1983 defeat as evidence of how popular leftism is.

So he does not resign and any challenger must be nominated by a Corbynite PLP. Well, they were prepared to nominate Corbyn in 2015 but we can be sure the reverse will not apply, so Yeremiy at this point is effectively leader for life, with 160 MPs all of whom are Trotskyite nodding dogs.

In theory this leaves the field open for a sensible centre left party to emerge - but only if May leaves them any room. If there are two allotropes of the Labour Party both claiming to be the real thing then the Tories are home and dry for at least three more general elections.

The great hope is that those who dont typically vote will come out and vote for leader core-bin. That is what they must be gambling on.

Generally I would not think that would work but who knows if he promises the moon on a stick maybe more left wing supporters will come out of the woodwork. Promises a higher min wage and higher wages for state employees and a rent cap and maybe the turnout for dear leader will be high?

TrickyTree83

cells wrote: »

The great hope is that those who dont typically vote will come out and vote for leader core-bin. That is what they must be gambling on.

Generally I would not think that would work but who knows if he promises the moon on a stick maybe more left wing supporters will come out of the woodwork. Promises a higher min wage and higher wages for state employees and a rent cap and maybe the turnout for dear leader will be high?

With the tax increases required to fund those programmes I'd expect them to haemorrhage some above average earners who currently support Labour.

cells

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

With the tax increases required to fund those programmes I'd expect them to haemorrhage some above average earners who currently support Labour.

well promising a high min wage isnt going to be difficult yet it would surely get lots of typically dont turn up voters to turn out and vote themselves a higher wage. it wont have tax implications either

for giving public sector workers a pay rise he could say something like it will come from savings on not building nukes or increasing corporation tax. I doubt he will be foolish enough to confirm average or reasonable earners will pay more. He may go for taxing those who earn >£150k at the 50% rate as there arent too many vote to lose there and also taxing corps more again not too many vote losers there.

westernpromise

cells wrote: »

The great hope is that those who dont typically vote will come out and vote for leader core-bin. That is what they must be gambling on.

And for several very good reasons, this will fail.

First, there is no reason to think that more non-voters will be motivated to turn out for Corbyn than against him. People turned out to vote Conservative in 2015 exactly because they were concerned by the risk of a Lab-SNP coalition. They would likely do the same against Corbyn.

Second, there aren't enough non-voters to make the difference Corbyn needs. He is 16 points behind in the polls. To overtake May without converting voters from other parties, he needs to add 17 points from previous non-voters. That means about 50% of non-voters would have to decide to vote and 100% would decide to vote for him. Non-voters broadly break the same way as voters, however, so any uplift in turnout would make little or no difference. Of every 100 non-voters who decide to turn out, he'd get 28 and May would get 44.

Third, all these extra party member supporters are in the wrong place, i.e. in safe seats. There is no value in winning 70% of the vote in a seat where you were previously winning 65% anyway. If whatever message galvanises non-voters to support you also thereby galvanises opponents into turning out against you, you will lose vote share where you were on 45% previously - and that really does matter.

Fourth, there is no evidence that this accession of members to Labour is doing anything for Labour's ground game. With more members, they ought to have more campaign workers and canvassers, and their GYVO operation ought to be getting better. None of this is happening. The new members are joining to shout at demos and in hopes of getting a hard lefty into the HoC on the Labour ticket but there's no sign of their doing the grunt work necessary to win seats. They're just assuming others will continue to do that.

Corbyn is thus utter toast. It is impossible for him to win from here or even to lose badly - he will lose catastrophically and not really care.

cells

westernpromise wrote: »

And for several very good reasons, this will fail.

First, there is no reason to think that more non-voters will be motivated to turn out for Corbyn than against him. People turned out to vote Conservative in 2015 exactly because they were concerned by the risk of a Lab-SNP coalition. They would likely do the same against Corbyn.

Second, there aren't enough non-voters to make the difference Corbyn needs. He is 16 points behind in the polls. To overtake May without converting voters from other parties, he needs to add 17 points from previous non-voters. That means about 50% of non-voters would have to decide to vote and 100% would decide to vote for him. Non-voters broadly break the same way as voters, however, so any uplift in turnout would make little or no difference. Of every 100 non-voters who decide to turn out, he'd get 28 and May would get 44.

Third, all these extra party member supporters are in the wrong place, i.e. in safe seats. There is no value in winning 70% of the vote in a seat where you were previously winning 65% anyway. If whatever message galvanises non-voters to support you also thereby galvanises opponents into turning out against you, you will lose vote share where you were on 45% previously - and that really does matter.

Fourth, there is no evidence that this accession of members to Labour is doing anything for Labour's ground game. With more members, they ought to have more campaign workers and canvassers, and their GYVO operation ought to be getting better. None of this is happening. The new members are joining to shout at demos and in hopes of getting a hard lefty into the HoC on the Labour ticket but there's no sign of their doing the grunt work necessary to win seats. They're just assuming others will continue to do that.

Corbyn is thus utter toast. It is impossible for him to win from here or even to lose badly - he will lose catastrophically and not really care.

I hope you are right.
I fear the promises of the moon on a stick will get the vote out for him coupled with dropping some of his more divisive policies and his hundreds of thousands of supporters convincing some of their pals to also turn out

scrap student tuition
increase public sector pay
increase min wage by £2ph more than what the tories are offering
cap renters rents to local social levels
tax corps more to pay for more NHS/Pensions

If I were poor, a renter, or a student any one of those would get my vote and get me trying to make sure other like minded people turned up. I think even just promising to cap private rents to social levels and increase the min wage will get him a tidal wave of votes

I accept your view that non voters would vote about the same as voters if they turned out. however there are more non voters who are young than old, poor than not, etc, so an increase in turnout means more younger and poorer people who will surely vote for korebin and his moon on a stick policies

ruggedtoast

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

You get the impression of a vast following because you're surrounded by people who think the same way.

Out here in middle England, I'm surrounded by people who dislike JC and think he's a joke.

Labour will not win a GE, they may win the odd by-election and council seats, probably in spite of JC.

If on the slimmest of chances JC gets in, if he raises taxes to pay for programmes for the poor I'll use the opportunity to rent my house out and emigrate to Australia or the US for 5 years. Always wanted to try that. I suspect a lot of other people would feel the same way.

You mean as an affluent, Tory voting, home owning boomer all the people you known and talk to are affluent, Tory voting home owning boomers?

I think this is the thing you lot need to try and start getting your heads around, Labour isn't your political party. Its no longer aimed at capturing your vote nor will its policies be aligned with shovelling money into the pockets of the dwindling number of people who are already well off.

I know its upsetting because for a long while it looked like you were going to get two Conservative parties to vote for in perpetuity.