EU: No concessions for UK on single market

danothy

CLAPTON wrote: »

What is your view on unlimited immigration ?

Ignoring the fact that there isn't an unlimited number of people, bring it on.

enthusiasticsaver

prowla wrote: »

I wonder how much we are going to charge the EU for access into our market...

What are you going to make then? We have a trade deficit.

We have banking and financial services as our main industry which will be relocating to Frankfurt or Dublin.

enthusiasticsaver

Scarpacci wrote: »

Perhaps, but it's also possible that it will be the buying power of Britain which tips the negotiations in our favour.

We have sixty-four million British shoppers. We're accustomed to buying French wine, German cars, etc. There will be many companies in Europe keen to make sure they can continue to sell into Britain. The Norwegian and Swiss markets in that regard are comparatively small.

The UK trade accounts for 3% of the total EU GDP. EU accounts for 44% of the UK GDP. Who needs who most?

Also how many of that 64 million will be left after companies start moving offices, factories abroad to be in the larger EU market rather than an isolationist UK? There will be a brain drain of the brightest and best brains in UK, whether British Nationals, EU Citizens or those from outside the EU who want to live in a progressive country.

Try and put any spin you like on this. It will be a disaster for UK.

TrickyTree83

enthusiasticsaver wrote: »

The UK trade accounts for 3% of the total EU GDP. EU accounts for 44% of the UK GDP. Who needs who most?

Also how many of that 64 million will be left after companies start moving offices, factories abroad to be in the larger EU market rather than an isolationist UK? There will be a brain drain of the brightest and best brains in UK, whether British Nationals, EU Citizens or those from outside the EU who want to live in a progressive country.

Try and put any spin you like on this. It will be a disaster for UK.

44% of exports, not GDP. Those exports are worth about 13% of UK GDP (2014) and falling, whilst non-EU has been rising.

EU exports into the UK account for 3% of the EU economy. Quite significant when considering the UK GDP is $2,988,893 and the EU GDP is (or was) $18,460,646.

If the UK left the EU, the remaining EU would export more goods to the UK than anywhere else outside the bloc, if current shares remained similar.

The latter part of your post doesn't come across as realistic at all in my opinion, more like you are blinded by rage about the result.

looknohands

holidaysforme wrote: »

I have no beef with Cardiff . It's a nice city that I have visited often. I'm really disappointing that Wales voted to leave. A lot of my Welsh friends are embarrassed by this.
Wales voting out if the EU is like turkeys voting for Christmas ,- but that's a whole other thread.
Going to Krakow instead and adding an tra night:D Rather spend my money abroad

Quit it with the Leave vs Remain attitude, the votes over and we are all in the same boat, nobody has 'won' and nobody 'lost' we've always been on the same team. I voted remain but even I see the naivety of not visiting Wales because they had a majority voting leave.

I'm hopeful once this clears up and our government finally get it's act together we get some good progress, keeping open borders and access to the EU market would be ideal.

Scarpacci

mwpt wrote: »

I hope it isn't, free movement is good.

By the way, many of your fellow leave voters and even your campaigners are backtracking on this claiming the referendum wasn't really about immigration. You should probably let them know about the red line.

Free movement was workable when the economies of the EU were at a similar level and growing at a similar rate. Through the '90s there was much less inbound migration from the EU because those countries were broadly similar in wealth and their economies were chugging along at similar rates.

The system has fallen apart since vastly poorer countries were allowed into the EU and since the Eurozone's growth fell through the floor. It's worth noting that migration to the UK from the EU15, that is those states that joined before EU knocked through to the Eastern Bloc, has been much higher through the past few years as well. So we've got people from countries who are much poorer and countries who feel they're growing less quickly than Britain all descending on Britain as the last beacon of hope in Europe. Totally unworkable.

To be clear, I certainly wouldn't claim the ideal number of EU migrants ought to be 0. But we simply can not have Britain acting as job creation scheme for the entirety of the much poorer Eastern Bloc and the slower growing Eurozone.

Scarpacci

enthusiasticsaver wrote: »

The UK trade accounts for 3% of the total EU GDP. EU accounts for 44% of the UK GDP. Who needs who most?

The UK is one of only two countries in the EU that saw its proportion of exports going to the other EU nations fall over the past decade. The level of British exports that go to other EU nations is lower than every other nation. That 44% you mention is our share of exports going to the rest of the EU and it's lower than everyone else. We've already started to pivot away from our dependency on selling to Europe. On the other hand, our purchases from Europe have increased. We are soon to be their most important, independent customer in Europe.

enthusiasticsaver wrote: »

Also how many of that 64 million will be left after companies start moving offices, factories abroad to be in the larger EU market rather than an isolationist UK? There will be a brain drain of the brightest and best brains in UK, whether British Nationals, EU Citizens or those from outside the EU who want to live in a progressive country.

I don't think our population will significantly shrink, no. Some of these masters of the universe who think the world only exists to benefit them might well move to another EU country, but they're always a mobile lot. Britain can still have a lot to offer them.

The brain drain, if it happens, can certainly be dealt with by improving the quality of immigration. Free from the shackles of this enforced bias towards white Europeans, skilled or not, we will reorient our immigration policy to welcome as many high-skilled, educated people from India or China that we've had to turn away in favour of Polish plumbers and Bulgarian gardeners.

TrickyTree83

Interesting thread about the plight of european banks.

It might transpire that the EU's bargaining position doesn't exist. That if they stick to their guns they will in fact be fiddling while the Titanic sinks.

On this basis I'd set out what we'll accept that's good for them and good for us economically with no relevance given to their political ideals.

Kohoutek

Scarpacci wrote: »

The UK is one of only two countries in the EU that saw its proportion of exports going to the other EU nations fall over the past decade. The level of British exports that go to other EU nations is lower than every other nation. That 44% you mention is our share of exports going to the rest of the EU and it's lower than everyone else. We've already started to pivot away from our dependency on selling to Europe.

The Leave posters here would be more credible if they stopped insisting that 44% is not a large number.

Do you tell people in other contexts that nearly half is a low number?

CLAPTON

Kohoutek wrote: »

The Leave posters here would be more credible if they stopped insisting that 44% is not a large number.

Do you tell people in other contexts that nearly half is a low number?

you might have a bit more credibility is you stopped pretending that the alternative to 44% is zero.