EU: No concessions for UK on single market

TrickyTree83

Kohoutek wrote: »

The Leave posters here would be more credible if they stopped insisting that 44% is not a large number.

Do you tell people in other contexts that nearly half is a low number?

It's nearly half of total exports.

It's been falling consistently for quite a few years now.

Your nearly half of total exports represents 13% of GDP per year.

Coming the other way is 3% of EU total exports, yet outside of the EU we would represent the largest importer of EU goods if the trading remained as it is today.

I don't think anyone is saying imposing tariffs on that export market won't hurt. But it's also not like reverting to tariffs will make that 44% become 0% either.

The ramifications of that will be high, but they will be even higher still for the EU where their 3% actually represents far more monetary value than our 13% (plus that 3% will be contained largely in the larger EU countries that prop the EU up). It's all well and good to use percentages, but 50% of 100 is still less than 1% of 1,000,000.

Will you as (I assume) a remain poster acknowledge this?

kinger101

Conrad wrote: »

UK and Eurozone economies are inter twined, if we suffer, they suffer ++ given their debt deflation dynamics and mass unemployment


All 27 nations will agree to a decent trade deal with us, as I point out endlessly, Eurozone economics are far more precarious than ours.


The UK economic fundamentals remain far stronger than the EU's, we're the jobs creation factory of Europe, rates on commercial paper have hardly moved, the Libor/OIS spread – the stress gauge – has been well-behaved.


We can cope with pound falls, many argue they are good for us in the round, but the deflationary Eurozone cannot suffer Euro falls, another example of where we hold a whip hand.


A deflation tsunami from China has been rocking the world, awash with goods, this is headed straight at Europe, so they need their own economics as strong as possible, the last they need is a fall in exports to the UK, concentrated on German and French business


The pound fell sharply, but this was a brilliant demonstration of the shock-absorber effect we saw in 92 and 08, and anyway the IMF said the pound was up to 18% OVER VALUED. Many argue it should ideally not have gone back up.

Sorry, I was wrong. Your comment is obviously the truth because of the different font sizes

cells

Conrad wrote: »

If the EU adds tariffs and makes thier exports more expensive, we can buy such things from anywhere else we so choose

People thinking the Germans won't meet us with an acceptable deal are in cloud cuckoo land

do you seriously believe that the EU with a GDP on par with the USA will be fine with not having a global financial center?

When the British were European that was London and just about acceptable but no more. They will block service exports with high tariffs. You can push back with tariffs on cars but the EU wont care all that much because the aim will be to gain a million jobs and $200 billion in banking and finance business, they can then sell more cars to their own people.

At least that would be my view if I were German/French.

TrickyTree83

cells wrote: »

do you seriously believe that the EU with a GDP on par with the USA will be fine with not having a global financial center?

When the British were European that was London and just about acceptable but no more. They will block service exports with high tariffs. You can push back with tariffs on cars but the EU wont care all that much because the aim will be to gain a million jobs and $200 billion in banking and finance business, they can then sell more cars to their own people.

At least that would be my view if I were German/French.

Mind you the EU don't make life easy for themselves with a transaction tax.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_financial_transaction_tax

Perhaps it would be better to absorb the tariffs and be reimbursed by HM Treasury by way of tariffs that go the other way to keep the upper hand.

The doors swing both ways.

adindas

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Personally I think this is the death knell for Brexit. Even Gove is going to struggle to recommend we pull out of Europe and sign straight back in to free movement.

It won't be very popular with all the Leave voters who definitely aren't racists.

If free access to single market with the condition of free movement.
We are back to the previous state before referendum but now, we pay almost the same subscription but no power to make decision ??

If this happen, this will make Brexit as an act of idiocy ...

cells

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

EU exports into the UK account for 3% of the EU economy. Quite significant when considering the UK GDP is $2,988,893 and the EU GDP is (or was) $18,460,646.

At current exchange rates the UK GDP is closer to $2,400,000m which is a good deal lower than your $2,989,000m

If the UK left the EU, the remaining EU would export more goods to the UK than anywhere else outside the bloc, if current shares remained similar.

If tariffs are enacted we will see both sides export less to each other. Prices would go up, some businesses would profit quite a lot as they can ramp up production and prices to provide what used to be imported, consumers would suffer higher prices.

cells

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Mind you the EU don't make life easy for themselves with a transaction tax.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_financial_transaction_tax

Perhaps it would be better to absorb the tariffs and be reimbursed by HM Treasury by way of tariffs that go the other way to keep the upper hand.

The doors swing both ways.

The door does not swing both ways whatever the hell that means. If free trade is good and virtually all those involved in business and economics believe so then its good. Going the other way is then bad no matter how many work around you think you can imagine up

Things were going good for the UK and London. Contrary to the hate of the EU the UK was one of the most powerful nations in the block and had huge influence. What looks most likely to me today is that we left the union and will be in limbo for 5 years before the UK accepts either exactly what we have today minus a seat at the table or as an alternative we dont have free movement but our EU contribution goes up from ~£10B a year to ~£15B a year as the government gives up the thatcher rebate for the removal of free movement

prowla

enthusiasticsaver wrote: »

What are you going to make then? We have a trade deficit.

We have banking and financial services as our main industry which will be relocating to Frankfurt or Dublin.

A trade deficit means we buy more from the EU than vice-versa, ie. if they they put up barriers and we reciprocate, they lose; that means that they are bargaining with the weaker hand.

Kohoutek

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It's nearly half of total exports.

It's been falling consistently for quite a few years now.

Your nearly half of total exports represents 13% of GDP per year.

Coming the other way is 3% of EU total exports, yet outside of the EU we would represent the largest importer of EU goods if the trading remained as it is today.

I don't think anyone is saying imposing tariffs on that export market won't hurt. But it's also not like reverting to tariffs will make that 44% become 0% either.

The ramifications of that will be high, but they will be even higher still for the EU where their 3% actually represents far more monetary value than our 13% (plus that 3% will be contained largely in the larger EU countries that prop the EU up). It's all well and good to use percentages, but 50% of 100 is still less than 1% of 1,000,000.

Will you as (I assume) a remain poster acknowledge this?

I accept that EU exports will not fall to 0%, yes - I never said that.

I don't think it will ever get to the stage of tariffs being imposed. The UK will stay in the single market. The government is not going to have the courage to play economic brinksmanship with the EU, especially when big business and the banks will be telling the government in very strong terms there will be job losses, relocations and cuts to investment if we leave. But the price of that will very likely be freedom of movement and EU law. And that will render Brexit a supreme act of idiocy.

Conrad

Kohoutek wrote: »

I accept that EU exports will not fall to 0%, yes - I never said that.

I don't think it will ever get to the stage of tariffs being imposed. The UK will stay in the single market. The government is not going to have the courage to play economic brinksmanship with the EU, especially when big business and the banks will be telling the government in very strong terms there will be job losses, relocations and cuts to investment if we leave. But the price of that will very likely be freedom of movement and EU law. And that will render Brexit a supreme act of idiocy.

Reading the FT yesterday confirmed the EU economically is far more precarious that us, and note things like we e created more jobs than the rest of them in the last five years.

This idea that they have us over a barrel is completely misguided. Furthermore we are the major local military power and give border states significant protection. That can be bargained for

Be a bit more imaginative man