EU: No concessions for UK on single market

stator

We can wait forever. If our dear new leader makes it clear "we will not leave until favourable terms are agreed" then we could be waiting forever and that wouldn't be so bad. Better than doing a bad deal quickly. But things change. A new government, maybe they discount the referendum. Maybe a new leader in Germany/France who want to reform the EU. Maybe the balkans want refurm to stop the flow of refugess. Maybe we get refurm and a second referendum votes Remain.
Millions of posibilities but we aren't without influence. Stall and veto could work quite well. What do we care if nothing gets done, since we're leaving anyway.

rlc22

cells wrote: »

everything has a price. I think they will give up free movement for full access to the market if the uk gives up the thatcher rebate. So we go from ~£10B a year in net contributions towards ~£15B a year in net contributions. The £100m a week might come from...the nhs budget...since everything seems to go there on promisses

The thing I wonder about this is whether they would even really be able to come to an agreement where we end up spending more and then not having a seat at the table. Surely saving money was another large part of the "leave" campaign as well and therefore the increased spending wouldn't be acceptable in the same way that they consider the immigration element.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Tromking wrote: »

I have a hunch there`s millions of EU citizens looking on in envy at our democracy at the moment.

Well I'm in Europe at the moment and I can assure you the reaction of ordinary people ranges from bafflement to incredulity to pity... But am yet to encounter a single case of envy.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well I'm in Europe at the moment and I can assure you the reaction of ordinary people ranges from bafflement to incredulity to pity... But am yet to encounter a single case of envy.

they are probably wondering how they will find that £165 million a week

Tromking

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well I'm in Europe at the moment and I can assure you the reaction of ordinary people ranges from bafflement to incredulity to pity... But am yet to encounter a single case of envy.

So the widespread reports of a burgeoning antipathy on mainland Europe to the EU project and its political advocates are a myth?
Nice to know.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

they are probably wondering how they will find that £165 million a week

A lot of that money was spent pooling resource. They need to find that money and we'll have to pay to duplicate the things where we'd previously pooled sovereignty with them.

Net the EU/UK costs will be in excess of £165m to replicate what's already in place. Don't know how it'll net out but Europe's consumers will be paying more than now.

cells

stator wrote: »

We can wait forever. If our dear new leader makes it clear "we will not leave until favourable terms are agreed" then we could be waiting forever and that wouldn't be so bad. Better than doing a bad deal quickly. But things change. A new government, maybe they discount the referendum. Maybe a new leader in Germany/France who want to reform the EU. Maybe the balkans want refurm to stop the flow of refugess. Maybe we get refurm and a second referendum votes Remain.
Millions of posibilities but we aren't without influence. Stall and veto could work quite well. What do we care if nothing gets done, since we're leaving anyway.

what the hell are you talking about?

the exit camp can wait until they get the best deal possible? well the EU can wait forever what do they have to lose with a UK still in Europe and everything continuing as is but with no uk influence in EU politics?

so what are the exit camp offering? that both sides wait until the sun turns into a red giant in a billion years and solves both sides waiting game?

stator

cells wrote: »

what the hell are you talking about?

the exit camp can wait until they get the best deal possible? well the EU can wait forever what do they have to lose with a UK still in Europe and everything continuing as is but with no uk influence in EU politics?

so what are the exit camp offering? that both sides wait until the sun turns into a red giant in a billion years and solves both sides waiting game?

What they have to lose is that Britain would veto everything. The eurocrats wouldn't be able to cope with standing still. They always want more stuff. more integration, more legislation.

cells

rlc22 wrote: »

The thing I wonder about this is whether they would even really be able to come to an agreement where we end up spending more and then not having a seat at the table. Surely saving money was another large part of the "leave" campaign as well and therefore the increased spending wouldn't be acceptable in the same way that they consider the immigration element.

Try to think from the EU side

Waiting isnt really a problem for the EU side, waiting just means a remain vote won. nothing changed its even better for them as no pesky English to veto their agendas. So England needs to make the move.

We have two choices as far as I can see.
Either we as a country are happy to walk away from the free market and we can dictate anything we want (and the EU can say ok FackOff) or we as a country wont give up the free market in which case the EU has a few options

1: give everything the UK wants with nothing in return
2: give what the UK wants but with something in return
3: simply dont give the uk what the uk wants forcing them out of the single market


Its then a simple elimination game. If the UK doesnt want to leave the single market and I would hazard a guess 80-90% of those in power dont and its plain simple the EU wont give everything the uk want with nothing in return then we only have option 2 left


Give what the uk wants but with something in return.
If the UK wants and end to free movement then what can we offer the EU in return? Well apart from more money what can we offer them? And the way to do that is to trade the thatcher rebate for the free movement. Even then some members of the EU wont be happy (especially France) as they dont think we deserve the rebate anyway but I feel overall that is something they may accept.


But who knows maybe the brexit side is right, maybe europe will start paying us £10B a year and allow us to send back the existing migrations and give us negative tarriffs on exports to the EU....

cells

stator wrote: »

What they have to lose is that Britain would veto everything. The eurocrats wouldn't be able to cope with standing still. They always want more stuff. more integration, more legislation.

We wont even be let in the room to veto anything not while we have turned out backs to them.

If you think that impossible they can go the legal route and change the rules. The UK with ~20%? of MEPs wont get the 50.1% needed to block whatever it is they are wanting to do

The Idea that the UK can out wait the EU just seems so silly to me