EU: No concessions for UK on single market

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

they are probably wondering how they will find that £165 million a week

That is ~10 billion euro

The EU without the UK is a ~12,500 billion euro block.

So its 0.1% of their GDP (it is 0.5% of UK)

Also some of their budget is from import tariffs. If the UK is out of the trade zone its going to cost tariffs if you want access is probably going to cost the £165m a week membership fee.

rlc22

cells wrote: »

Try to think from the EU side

Waiting isnt really a problem for the EU side, waiting just means a remain vote won. nothing changed its even better for them as no pesky English to veto their agendas. So England needs to make the move.

We have two choices as far as I can see.
Either we as a country are happy to walk away from the free market and we can dictate anything we want (and the EU can say ok FackOff) or we as a country wont give up the free market in which case the EU has a few options

1: give everything the UK wants with nothing in return
2: give what the UK wants but with something in return
3: simply dont give the uk what the uk wants forcing them out of the single market


Its then a simple elimination game. If the UK doesnt want to leave the single market and I would hazard a guess 80-90% of those in power dont and its plain simple the EU wont give everything the uk want with nothing in return then we only have option 2 left


Give what the uk wants but with something in return.
If the UK wants and end to free movement then what can we offer the EU in return? Well apart from more money what can we offer them? And the way to do that is to trade the thatcher rebate for the free movement. Even then some members of the EU wont be happy (especially France) as they dont think we deserve the rebate anyway but I feel overall that is something they may accept.


But who knows maybe the brexit side is right, maybe europe will start paying us £10B a year and allow us to send back the existing migrations and give us negative tarriffs on exports to the EU....

We would be crazy to trade the rebate for free movement. End result would be that we would be paying more and losing any influence we have. No way our government could make the decision that free movement is more of an issue for us than the cost based on the question they asked in the referendum.

The whole thing is a mess, I really don't see that there is a good option for us coming out of this

cells

rlc22 wrote: »

We would be crazy to trade the rebate for free movement. End result would be that we would be paying more and losing any influence we have. No way our government could make the decision that free movement is more of an issue for us than the cost based on the question they asked in the referendum.

The whole thing is a mess, I really don't see that there is a good option for us coming out of this

exactly my view.

The EU wont accept no free movement and full access to the free market without something in return. Why would they?

So what do we concede to compromise a settlement?

If the thatcher rebate is lost we end up paying £5 billion a year more to avoid ~150,000 net mostly young working contributing migrants plus have no seat at the table. We go from one of the big three EU nations making the rules to less power and influence than tiny Cyprus with 1 million people

stator

cells wrote: »

We wont even be let in the room to veto anything not while we have turned out backs to them.

If you think that impossible they can go the legal route and change the rules. The UK with ~20%? of MEPs wont get the 50.1% needed to block whatever it is they are wanting to do

The Idea that the UK can out wait the EU just seems so silly to me

I'm not talking about the parliament, the parliament is irrelevent. I'm talking about the council. High level stuff.

HornetSaver

CLAPTON wrote: »

they are probably wondering how they will find that £165 million a week

£165 million a week is about £8.6 billion a year.

VAT for 2016/17 was projected to be in the region of £120 billion a year before we voted to Leave.

Even discounting reduced rate VAT, our total contribution to the EU is a lot less than the 2.5% difference between the current rate and the previous long-term rate of 17.5%.

The EU must be sh*tting themselves...

HornetSaver

cells wrote: »

So what do we concede to compromise a settlement?

As someone who voted Remain I'm probably not best qualified to decide what the British people are and are not willing to compromise. There isn't anything like a consensus on that from Leave voters either.

Given the lack of appetite for any sort of referendum relating to our relationship to the EU (not even a referendum which makes clear that we will leave whatever the outcome), it's all the more reason why the next Tory leader needs to set out their vision of the UK outside the EU, call a general election, and then get on with delivering the vision they were elected on.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

A lot of that money was spent pooling resource. They need to find that money and we'll have to pay to duplicate the things where we'd previously pooled sovereignty with them.

Net the EU/UK costs will be in excess of £165m to replicate what's already in place. Don't know how it'll net out but Europe's consumers will be paying more than now.

I'ld be most interested to know more about how the money is spent

Voyager2002

stator wrote: »

We can wait forever. If our dear new leader makes it clear "we will not leave until favourable terms are agreed" then we could be waiting forever and that wouldn't be so bad. ...

You evidently read newspapers much, nor watch TV, nor...

The elected leaders of the EU countries have made it very clear that there will not be any negotiations until the UK invokes Article 50 (that is, gives formal notice that we are leaving). Once Article 50 is invoked, there is a two-year deadline after which we will be out completely. Even the most basic arrangements needed will take at least two years to negotiate. So waiting is not going to be an option...

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

That is ~10 billion euro

The EU without the UK is a ~12,500 billion euro block.

So its 0.1% of their GDP (it is 0.5% of UK)

Also some of their budget is from import tariffs. If the UK is out of the trade zone its going to cost tariffs if you want access is probably going to cost the £165m a week membership fee.

your argument is, as usual, well crafted: just don't understand why they bother to take the money as its so trivial.
I am confident you could construct a logic that would explain to them that it is an actual COST to them to take the money and so they should give us back our 40 years worth of contribution.
go for it.

CLAPTON

Voyager2002 wrote: »

You evidently read newspapers much, nor watch TV, nor...

The elected leaders of the EU countries have made it very clear that there will not be any negotiations until the UK invokes Article 50 (that is, gives formal notice that we are leaving). Once Article 50 is invoked, there is a two-year deadline after which we will be out completely. Even the most basic arrangements needed will take at least two years to negotiate. So waiting is not going to be an option...

and of course, we have conclusion experience that shows politicians NEVER lie.

however we do need to leave asap and the plan will be available in 6 weeks time