Brexit outcome gamble

rich11

Out went out to 10.5 on Betfair at 10am this morning. Has now been backed into 5.4

rich11

Back out to 7.6 now

Ballard

I can't work out just what's driving the movement. The polls put remain just ahead but they didn't exactly cover themselves in glory at the last election. I suppose that the difference is that people are more likely to be honest about their voting in this one.

glentoran99

Ballard wrote: »

I can't work out just what's driving the movement. The polls put remain just ahead but they didn't exactly cover themselves in glory at the last election. I suppose that the difference is that people are more likely to be honest about their voting in this one.

the bets being placed

Ballard

glentoran99 wrote: »

the bets being placed

Yeah. Thanks for the insight.

george4064

Ballard wrote: »

I can't work out just what's driving the movement. The polls put remain just ahead but they didn't exactly cover themselves in glory at the last election. I suppose that the difference is that people are more likely to be honest about their voting in this one.

It is believed that the jump in the UK market on Monday was primarily caused by a £25,000 bet placed on remain, where the odds narrowed and sparked a positive wave through the market.

Pincher

I have £10 on Remain getting 45.01% - 50.00% , pays 7:2.

Pay out is £45.

Not too sure what happens if it's 50%:50%.

bowlhead99

Pincher wrote: »

I have £10 on Remain getting 45.01% - 50.00% , pays 7:2.

Pay out is £45.

Not too sure what happens if it's 50%:50%.

If it's 50%:50% then Remain gets 50.00% which is what you bet would happen, so you get paid.

If Remain got 50.01% then you would have needed to bet on the category of them getting 50.01 to 55.00, to get paid.

If you put another tenner on right now, according to Oddschecker, you can get 11:2 (I.e. much better than 7:2) on a leave victory (ie Remain getting 0.00000 to 49.99999999999%, a much wider set of outcomes to what you're currently getting paid for). So if you're confident, now's the time to act!

Personally I hope to lose my Leave bet which I mentioned a month or so ago. My long GBP/USD bets and long sterling ETF have done very well indeed the last 10 days and I have a decent sized buy option on USD at 145.00 maturing Friday. (As well as a sell option at 139.00).

Good luck all!

rich11

1.54 to 2.82 now. Gonna be close

racing_blue

racing_blue wrote: »

topped up UKX tracker at FTSE = 59xx

I think we will remain

Ah well, maybe next time!