Brexit outcome gamble

El_Selb

Other than directly with the bookies, anyone making any short term investments based on the outcome? And if so on what?

economic

nope, dont see the point of losing money.

Ballard

A 3/1 punt for Brexit at the bookies mightn't be a bad hedge for some people but I own no shares directly so I've little to hedge against.

I fear, however, that if we stay in but by a small majority we will be bombarded with calls for a re-run forever more so it'd be possible to lose the hedge bet but still see little improvement in the markets.

george4064

The below is a snippet of a research note sent from investment banking firm; Liberium.

(ShareCast News) - Depending on whether the UK finally decided to 'Remain' or 'Leave' then different London-listed securities were likelier to 'outperform' their respective sectors, Liberum said.
The broker's 'top-picks' under a 'Remain', 'Leave' and 'Either way' scenario were, ITV, Wolseley and Balfour Beatty, respectively.

By sectors, and in terms of valuation, Liberum saw Construction, Housebuilding and Leisure as "potential benefactors of the 'Remain' vote while Real Estate and Retail might prove vulnerable to Brexit, strategist Sebastian Jory said in a research note sent to clients.

"We are happy to own Pharma, Tech and Chemicals in the case of Brexit," he said.

Should Britons decide to 'Remain' then Jory told clients the following shares should put in a better performance than their individual sectors: Spectris (Capital goods), Ontex Group (Consumer staples), Brewin Dolphin (Diversified financials), Berkeley Group (Housebuilders), ITV (Media), Land Secutities/British Land (Real estate), Vertu Motors/Lookers (Retail), Staffline Group/Hays (Support services) and William Hill (Tech&Gaming).

In case of 'Leave' then the likeliest winners, relatively speaking at least, might be: Genus (Agriculture&Nutrition), Melrose Industries (Capital goods), Associated British Foods (Consumer staples), Plus 500 (Diversified financials), Wolseley (Housebuilders), Assura/Primary Health Properties (Real estate), Jimmy Choo (Retail) and Laird (Tech&Gaming).

Lastly, and for those looking to position themselves regardless of which way the voting finally went, Jory pointed out: Cranswick (Agriculture&Nutrition), Cobham (Capital goods), Tate&Lyle (Consumer staples), Icap (Diversified financials), MJ Gleeson (Housebuilders), Rightmove (Media), Shaftesbury (Real estate), Mc.Bride (Retail), Balfour Beatty (Support services) and Playtech (Tech&Gaming).

JohnRo

It's fair to say the outcome will be closer than either side would prefer.

Nothing has or will change in my main investment accounts, added VNQ this week, as scheduled, the timing decided months ago.

My CFD gambling account, a small percentage of the total, is positioned for a UK/EU market rally on Friday with some entry orders placed for a short term overreaction either way.

atush

I moved cash to USD and euros, to use for upcoming holidays and to pay bills based in these currencies.

This was a hedge against a leave, not a gamble. As money in those currencies is needed

Pincher

If you follow the not all eggs in one basket principle, you should have assets in multiple countries, all the time.

Ideally, you want to keep a mistress to look after them in each country as well, and keep the asset in their names to avoid having to file taxes internationally. As soon as I work out how to stop them from keeping the money and changing the lock, I will set things into motion.

george4064

JohnRo wrote: »

It's fair to say the outcome will be closer than either side would prefer.

Nothing has or will change in my main investment accounts, added VNQ this week, as scheduled, the timing decided months ago.

My CFD gambling account, a small percentage of the total, is positioned for a UK/EU market rally on Friday with some entry orders placed for a short term overreaction either way.

Is VNQ the Vanguard REIT Index Fund, listed on NYSEARCA?

JohnRo

Yes VNQ is the Vanguard index funds REIT vipers, how could it not be American with a name like that.

planning to update my monthly income thread at some point to detail BRFI and VNQ added for those interested, just having to adjust spreadsheet to incorporate two separate valuations and statements.

jaydeeuk1

I've had a decent amount at 5.2 on betfair for a brexit a few weeks ago. If it loses I'll reckon it will be more than made back when markets stabilise, if it wins well at least I'll have some cash when it all goes to hell.
Could cash in now for a tidy sum, but letting this one ride! (don't tell the matched betting forum, they'll shout at me)

El_Selb

I put 100 on remain at 4/9... Thinking abouting hedging that now!